Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 16, 2026Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 16, 2026, 5:33 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2026, 5:33 PM MST (00:33 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2026, 8:30 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 16, 6:05 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	2 Nne Three Points, AZ	Highway 86 impassible due to flooded roadway.
Jul 16, 7:10 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	8 W Tucson, AZ	Delayed Report. Road closure due to flooding.
Jul 16, 8:02 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	4 Sw Oro Valley, AZ	Delayed Report. Road closure due to flooding.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 32 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 215 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2039 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

175 
WGUS55 KTWC 170033 RRA
FFWTWC
AZC019-170330-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0052.260717T0033Z-260717T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
533 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Pima County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 830 PM MST.

* At 533 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Around 1 inch of rain has fallen
  in Tucson Estates. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches
  are possible in the Tucson Metro Flash flooding is ongoing or
  expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas
  Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Three Points,
  Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, San Xavier Community, Tucson
  Mountain Park, Valencia West, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park
  West, Tucson International Airport, Catalina Foothills, Catalina
  State Park and Sabino Canyon Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 56 and 63. Route 86 between mile
markers 148 and 171. Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 81.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 247 and 265. Route 286 between
mile markers 40 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11079 3244 11082 3242 11093 3234 11116
      3221 11126 3201 11141 3199 11123 3195 11117
      3209 11098 3222 11084

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEL

4 follow-up statements

927 
WGUS75 KTWC 170059
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
559 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260717T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
559 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 559 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across portions of the Tucson Metro. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of
rain have fallen in the Tucson Estates and Catalina Foothills area.
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas
  Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Three Points,
  Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, San Xavier Community, Tucson
  Mountain Park, Valencia West, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park
  West, Tucson International Airport, Catalina Foothills, Catalina
  State Park and Sabino Canyon Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 56 and 63. Route 86 between mile
markers 148 and 171. Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 81.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 247 and 265. Route 286 between
mile markers 40 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11079 3244 11082 3242 11093 3234 11116
      3221 11126 3201 11141 3199 11123 3195 11117
      3209 11098 3222 11084

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

521 
WGUS75 KTWC 170122
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
622 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260717T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
622 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 622 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across portions of the Tucson Metro area, with the heaviest rain
in the Tucson Estates area and also in the Catalina Foothills.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in these areas. The
expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly,
especially in the Tucson Estates area and in the Catalina Foothills,
especially in the Pima Canyon area.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas
  Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Three Points,
  Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, San Xavier Community, Tucson
  Mountain Park, Valencia West, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park
  West, Tucson International Airport, Catalina Foothills, Catalina
  State Park and Sabino Canyon Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 56 and 63. Route 86 between mile
markers 148 and 171. Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 81.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 247 and 265. Route 286 between
mile markers 40 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11079 3244 11082 3242 11093 3234 11116
      3221 11126 3201 11141 3199 11123 3195 11117
      3209 11098 3222 11084

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

GEL

664 
WGUS75 KTWC 170150
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
650 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260717T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
650 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 650 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area which extends from Three Points northeast
through the northwest side of Tucson and the Catalina Foothills.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen with the highest totals in
Tucson Estates and in the Ventana Canyon area. Additional rainfall
amounts locally up to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly with the main
areas of concern being in the Tucson Estates area and Catalina
Foothills, specifically for the Pima Canyon, Ventana Canyon, Bird
Canyon and Esperero Wash. This water will eventually flow into the
lower Tanque Verde and Rillito River.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas
  Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Three Points,
  Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, San Xavier Community, Tucson
  Mountain Park, Valencia West, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park
  West, Tucson International Airport, Catalina Foothills, Catalina
  State Park and Sabino Canyon Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 56 and 63. Route 86 between mile
markers 148 and 171. Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 81.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 247 and 265. Route 286 between
mile markers 40 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11079 3244 11082 3242 11093 3234 11116
      3221 11126 3201 11141 3199 11123 3195 11117
      3209 11098 3222 11084

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

261 
WGUS75 KTWC 170327
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170337-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260717T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
827 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters are receding but residual flow will continue in area
washes. The Flash Flood Warning has been replaced by a Flood Advisory
until 1215 AM MST. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Friday for a portion
of Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11079 3244 11082 3242 11093 3234 11116
      3221 11126 3201 11141 3199 11123 3195 11117
      3209 11098 3222 11084

$$

GEL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 16, 2:33 PM MST, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:33 PM MST, 3 hours before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across southeast Arizona with an increased risk of
flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust will also be
possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for thunderstorms will
continue through the coming week with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...My concern when hoisting a flash flood watch 24
hours in advance during the monsoon is what happens the day
before and will there be considerable debris clouds starting the
morning to mess with the flash flood day forecast. Well that
happened this morning, an OH NO moment, with a considerable
cloud deck and very light showers/virga across the area. This
cloud deck has been slowly eroding this afternoon with storms
developing rather quick in the cloud breaks in a rather moist
and unstable atmosphere. The upper air pattern today is rather
chaotic today with upper low over wrn TX and an upper high
centered over NW AZ bringing a northerly diffluent flow aloft
across the area. In addition, there is an MCV west of Organ Pipe
Ntl Mon that is developing storms in western Pima county.

PWATs across the area ranged from 1.3" near AZ/NM border to
almost 2" over wrn AZ. The unstable atmosphere combined with the
above normal moisture will bring an increased flash flooding
threat to most of the area. Hourly rainfall rates from some of
the strongest storms could exceed 2"/hour so some of the flash
flooding could be considerable on a localized basis. Flash Flood
Watch continues for Graham/Cochise counties thru 9 pm, and for
Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties until 12 am Friday. The
threat for severe storms is limited with isolated gusts up to 55
mph possible.

Activity diminishing overnight with likely considerable cloud
cover around Friday morning. Likely to have another slow start
to the convection, with CAMs hitting the Intl border with heavy
rain.

Thunderstorm chances continue daily this weekend and into next
week with day to day variability. Ensemble models show the
upper level ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four
Corners region next week keeping an active monsoon pattern
across the area.

High temperatures over the next 7 days will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z
Showers and thunderstorms will continue 17/07Z before slowly
diminishing thru 17/13z. Heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and
erratic strong wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible with any storm,
with ceilings mainly 9k-12k feet. Outside of thunderstorms,
surface winds generally under 10 kts. Chance of -SHRA/TS
developing aft 17/19z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the
lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains
this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15
mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains through tonight may lead to significant rises in
washes, creeks and rivers, especially from western Cochise
county west through Santa Cruz and into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
 Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>506-514-515.

&&

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 5:05 PM MST, 28 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
505 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Flash Flood      42 ESE Willcox          31.94N 109.22W
07/16/2026                   Cochise            AZ   CO-OP Observer

            South Turkey Creek Rd and Paradise-Portal Rd
            is Flooding. South Turkey Creek is bank to
            bank with 3 feet of water in it and flooding
            most of Turkey Creek Rd. Forest 42B Rd and
            Portal Paradise Rd has flash flooding along
            the road.

&&

CLP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 5:01 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 16, 5:12 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 16, 5:23 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 16, 5:33 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Graham	3 hr
Jul 16, 6:26 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	114 min
Jul 16, 6:31 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pinal	74 min
Jul 16, 7:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 16, 8:16 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	4 hr
Jul 17, 8:53 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	112 min
Jul 17, 1:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 17, 2:57 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 17, 3:04 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 17, 3:05 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	31 min
Jul 17, 4:54 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pinal	66 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2026 Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.