Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Tucson, AZ

484 
WGUS75 KTWC 170052
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
552 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC003-170300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
552 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 552 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Muleshoe Ranch Preserve and Cascabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 11045 3226 11045 3233 11044 3238 11039
      3242 11025 3242 11002 3240 10996 3231 10995
      3222 11013 3220 11044

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KJS

666 
WGUS75 KTWC 170256
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
756 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC003-170306-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
756 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MST for a portion of
Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 11045 3226 11045 3233 11044 3238 11039
      3242 11025 3242 11002 3240 10996 3231 10995
      3222 11013 3220 11044

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across southeast Arizona with an increased risk of
flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust will also be
possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for thunderstorms will
continue through the coming week with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...My concern when hoisting a flash flood watch 24
hours in advance during the monsoon is what happens the day
before and will there be considerable debris clouds starting the
morning to mess with the flash flood day forecast. Well that
happened this morning, an OH NO moment, with a considerable
cloud deck and very light showers/virga across the area. This
cloud deck has been slowly eroding this afternoon with storms
developing rather quick in the cloud breaks in a rather moist
and unstable atmosphere. The upper air pattern today is rather
chaotic today with upper low over wrn TX and an upper high
centered over NW AZ bringing a northerly diffluent flow aloft
across the area. In addition, there is an MCV west of Organ Pipe
Ntl Mon that is developing storms in western Pima county.

PWATs across the area ranged from 1.3" near AZ/NM border to
almost 2" over wrn AZ. The unstable atmosphere combined with the
above normal moisture will bring an increased flash flooding
threat to most of the area. Hourly rainfall rates from some of
the strongest storms could exceed 2"/hour so some of the flash
flooding could be considerable on a localized basis. Flash Flood
Watch continues for Graham/Cochise counties thru 9 pm, and for
Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties until 12 am Friday. The
threat for severe storms is limited with isolated gusts up to 55
mph possible.

Activity diminishing overnight with likely considerable cloud
cover around Friday morning. Likely to have another slow start
to the convection, with CAMs hitting the Intl border with heavy
rain.

Thunderstorm chances continue daily this weekend and into next
week with day to day variability. Ensemble models show the
upper level ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four
Corners region next week keeping an active monsoon pattern
across the area.

High temperatures over the next 7 days will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z
Showers and thunderstorms will continue 17/07Z before slowly
diminishing thru 17/13z. Heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and
erratic strong wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible with any storm,
with ceilings mainly 9k-12k feet. Outside of thunderstorms,
surface winds generally under 10 kts. Chance of -SHRA/TS
developing aft 17/19z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the
lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains
this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15
mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains through tonight may lead to significant rises in
washes, creeks and rivers, especially from western Cochise
county west through Santa Cruz and into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
 Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>506-514-515.

&&

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