Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

485 
WGUS75 KTWC 170128
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
628 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
628 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 628 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen near and just west of Arivaca. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Arivaca and Sasabe.

This includes Route 286 between mile markers 1 and 39.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Arivaca Rd from Arivaca Junction & HWY 286.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 11137 3144 11139 3149 11158 3150 11159
      3168 11162 3189 11156 3201 11141 3200 11124
      3188 11122 3162 11122 3152 11131 3152 11137

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEL

560 
WGUS75 KTWC 170257
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
757 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC019-170307-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
757 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Friday for a portion
of Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 11137 3144 11139 3149 11158 3150 11159
      3168 11162 3189 11156 3201 11141 3200 11124
      3188 11122 3162 11122 3152 11131 3152 11137

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across southeast Arizona with an increased risk of
flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust will also be
possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for thunderstorms will
continue through the coming week with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...My concern when hoisting a flash flood watch 24
hours in advance during the monsoon is what happens the day
before and will there be considerable debris clouds starting the
morning to mess with the flash flood day forecast. Well that
happened this morning, an OH NO moment, with a considerable
cloud deck and very light showers/virga across the area. This
cloud deck has been slowly eroding this afternoon with storms
developing rather quick in the cloud breaks in a rather moist
and unstable atmosphere. The upper air pattern today is rather
chaotic today with upper low over wrn TX and an upper high
centered over NW AZ bringing a northerly diffluent flow aloft
across the area. In addition, there is an MCV west of Organ Pipe
Ntl Mon that is developing storms in western Pima county.

PWATs across the area ranged from 1.3" near AZ/NM border to
almost 2" over wrn AZ. The unstable atmosphere combined with the
above normal moisture will bring an increased flash flooding
threat to most of the area. Hourly rainfall rates from some of
the strongest storms could exceed 2"/hour so some of the flash
flooding could be considerable on a localized basis. Flash Flood
Watch continues for Graham/Cochise counties thru 9 pm, and for
Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties until 12 am Friday. The
threat for severe storms is limited with isolated gusts up to 55
mph possible.

Activity diminishing overnight with likely considerable cloud
cover around Friday morning. Likely to have another slow start
to the convection, with CAMs hitting the Intl border with heavy
rain.

Thunderstorm chances continue daily this weekend and into next
week with day to day variability. Ensemble models show the
upper level ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four
Corners region next week keeping an active monsoon pattern
across the area.

High temperatures over the next 7 days will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z
Showers and thunderstorms will continue 17/07Z before slowly
diminishing thru 17/13z. Heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and
erratic strong wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible with any storm,
with ceilings mainly 9k-12k feet. Outside of thunderstorms,
surface winds generally under 10 kts. Chance of -SHRA/TS
developing aft 17/19z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the
lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains
this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15
mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains through tonight may lead to significant rises in
washes, creeks and rivers, especially from western Cochise
county west through Santa Cruz and into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
 Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>506-514-515.

&&

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