Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Tucson, AZ

597 
WGUS75 KTWC 162208 RRA
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
308 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

AZC023-170015-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260717T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
308 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 308 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible
in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Nogales, Rio Rico, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake
  State Park, Kino Springs and Pena Blanca Lake.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 1 and 13. Route 82 between mile
markers 1 and 15.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Nogales Wash at Doe St Bridge and Pendleton Dr at Sonoita Creek.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Harshaw Creek, Sonoita Creek, Santa Cruz River and Potrero Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 11110 3140 11111 3150 11102 3151 11075
      3142 11069 3133 11067 3133 11107

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
238 AM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
  and evening across southeastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered
  thunderstorm activity may persist through much of the night
  tonight.

- Heavy rainfall with these thunderstorms will bring a threat of
  flash flooding as well as rises in washes and rivers. A Flash
  Flood Watch remains in effect this afternoon and tonight.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through the coming week with day to day variability in
  location and severity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms become more widespread
this afternoon and evening across southeastern Arizona with an
increased risk of flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust
will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for
thunderstorms will continue through the coming week with day to
day variability in location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A broad northern US ridge and a closed low under it over west
Texas define the upper level pattern this morning, with water
vapor imagery depicting impulses near the closed low moving into
the desert southwest from the east. An elongated swath of rich
atmospheric moisture sits from Sonora north through much of the
Intermountain West, characterized by precipitable water values
1.25 inches near the southern Arizona and New Mexico border to 2
inches in western Pima county. The combination of the dynamics
aloft and moisture rich environment will allow for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of 2 inch per hour
(likely even higher with the strongest storms) rainfall rates to
develop this afternoon across the region. Some areas, such as
west of Tucson, may not see thunderstorms until the evening, but
the risk of flash flooding covers most of southeastern Arizona
today. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Though there has
been some shifting around in recent high-resolution model runs,
the overall suite of model precipitation forecasts generally
favor the heaviest rainfall totals to land from southern Pinal
through central- eastern Pima, western Cochise, and through
Santa Cruz counties where 1-3 inches of rain are possible (with
isolated potential for more). WPC has extended their Day 1
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding (already
a rare outlook level for this area) through the area covered by
this model agreement. Flash flooding and running washes and
rivers will be hazards today, as well as a gusty wind and
blowing dust threat with any stronger thunderstorm. With the
dynamic support aloft from the nearby closed low, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity may linger well into the
overnight hours.

The upper level pattern and moisture field on Friday will be
similar to today, however atmospheric instability is in
question as activity from today will impact Friday's
thunderstorm potential. This is shown in the model suite where
possible outcomes range from a notable "down" day to a
scattered flash flooding threat for the area.

Thunderstorm chances continue daily through the coming week with
day to day variability. Ensemble models show the upper level
ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four Corners
region by the end of next week with the overall pattern still
favoring southeasterly flow into Arizona with continued monsoon
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 16/19Z
and become widely scattered across southeastern Arizona. Heavy
rain, mountain obscurations, and erratic strong wind gusts of
35-45 kts possible with any storm, with ceilings mainly 9k-12k
feet. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally under 10
kts. Isolated to scattered activity may continue through the
overnight hours tonight. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. More widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected today (40-90 percent). Minimum
relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert locations
and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds this week
will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though strong and
erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Heavy rains today may lead to significant rises in washes,
creeks and rivers, especially from western Cochise county west
through Santa Cruz and into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
AZZ502>506-514-515.
Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
AZZ507>509-511>513.

&&

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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