Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 15, 2026Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 15, 2026, 5:53 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2026, 5:53 PM MST (00:53 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2026, 9:00 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 217 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

910 
WGUS55 KTWC 160053
FFWTWC
AZC019-160400-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0034.260716T0053Z-260716T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
553 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central Pima County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 900 PM MST.

* At 553 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible
  in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Avra Valley and Picture Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 11140 3237 11145 3228 11149 3223 11140
      3224 11135 3228 11132 3234 11129 3241 11129
      3247 11135

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

3 follow-up statements

171 
WGUS75 KTWC 160202
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
702 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

AZC019-160400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-260716T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
702 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 702 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Avra Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 11145 3241 11140 3247 11135 3241 11129
      3235 11134 3230 11136 3226 11138 3224 11142
      3228 11149

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

223 
WGUS75 KTWC 160354
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
854 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

AZC019-160400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-260716T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
854 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 854 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Avra Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 11145 3241 11140 3247 11135 3241 11129
      3235 11134 3230 11136 3226 11138 3224 11142
      3228 11149

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KM

214 
WGUS75 KTWC 160355
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
855 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

AZC019-160405-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-260716T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
855 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. Lingering
showers may continue for the next few hours.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 11145 3241 11140 3247 11135 3241 11129
      3235 11134 3230 11136 3226 11138 3224 11142
      3228 11149

$$

KM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 15, 3:00 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:00 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms this evening with heavy rain
and strong gusty winds possible near any thunderstorm. More
widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast on
Thursday and potentially Friday with an increased risk of flash
flooding. High temperatures will be below normal for the next 7
days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very active monsoon pattern will continue for
the foreseeable future. Rather chaotic upper air pattern via
water vapor imagery which shows an upper low over srn Baja, an
upper low over cntrl TX, large expansive upper ridge that
extends from ern CONUS west to the interior west with a high
centered near Salt Lake City. And in the tropics, there is TS
Elida, which was located 570 miles SSW off the srn tip of Baja
per the latest NHC advisory.

We have NE flow over the area today between the upper high near
Salt Lake City and the cntrl TX upper low. Ample moisture is in
place for scattered showers and thunderstorms as they propagate
NE-SW. Main threats will be strong gusty outflow winds, some of
which may briefly be severe, localized heavy rain and flash
flooding.

Thursday: Flash flooding concerns will be heightened thanks to
additional moisture advection into the area with PWATs ranging
from 1.25" far east to over 2" west of Tucson and sufficient
dynamics over the area. Thunderstorms developing over the
mountains will propagate to the SW under NE flow aloft. Outflow
interactions will continue to develop strong wet microbursts
from Tucson west late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Localized rainfall rates up to 2"/hr are possible with some of
the very wet storms leading to flash flooding. From WPC,
HREF/REFS guidance had low end chances, (10-30%), of rainfall
totals exceeding 5", especially west of Tucson. With that said,
and in coordination with WPC, added a rare Moderate Risk (MDT,
at least 40%) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for
excessive rainfall within 25 miles of a point, for SW Cochise
county, all of Santa Cruz county, ern Pima county (mainly S of
Tucson at this time) and central Pima county. A Flash Flood
watch was issued for most of the area Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning. We may see some interesting average
recurrence intervals (ARI) on Thursday. Of note: the last time
SE AZ had an area MDT ERO was on Sept 21, 2022.

Friday has the potential to be another active day but confidence
is low due to what happens on Thursday. Could end up with an MCV
moving thru which will diminish chances.

Wet monsoon pattern continues this weekend into the first half
of next week with daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures will run below normal for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
Widely SCTD -SHRA/-TS thru 16/04z then SCTD -SHRA/TS aft 16/19z.
Ceilings mostly 9k-12k ft. Hvy rain, mtn OBSCN and erratic
strong wind gusts of 35-45 kts psbl with any TS. Outside of TS,
SFC winds generally under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. More widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms are likely Thursday and potentially Friday.
Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert
locations and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds
this week will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though
strong and erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The heavy rains on Thursday may lead to some
significant rises in washes, creeks and rivers, especially from
western Cochise county west into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
  night for AZZ502>506-514-515.
 Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
  for AZZ507>509-511>513.

&&

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 3:52 PM MST, 2 hours 1 minute before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
352 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     Flash Flood      Rio Rico                31.48N 110.98W
07/15/2026                   Santa Cruz         AZ   Trained Spotter

            Video of washed out roadway with rocks and
            small boulders due to flash flooding on
            roadway.

&&

JVT

Local storm report, Jul 15, 3:58 PM MST, 1 hour 55 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
358 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Rio Rico           31.44N 111.00W
07/15/2026  M55 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   Trained Spotter

            Recorded wind gust on personal weather
            station. Rainfall of 1.01 inches in 20
            minutes.

&&

JVT

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:02 PM MST, 51 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
502 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 N Safford             32.95N 109.68W
07/15/2026  M58 MPH          Graham             AZ   Mesonet

            Personal weather station gusted to 58 mph.

&&

JVT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 5:40 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pinal	3 hr
Jul 15, 5:48 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	69 min
Jul 15, 6:02 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:21 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:57 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:59 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	61 min
Jul 15, 9:18 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 16, 1:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	4 hr
Jul 16, 2:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	5 hr
Jul 16, 2:18 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 16, 2:42 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 16, 2:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 16, 3:05 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 16, 3:30 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Cochise	4 hr
Jul 16, 3:57 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 16, 4:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 16, 4:13 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 16, 4:55 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2026 Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.