Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat
   Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central
   Arkansas Friday and Saturday.

 - Rain and storm chances continue for much of eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas Friday night, and southeast Oklahoma
   into western Arkansas Saturday.

 - Drier conditions expected Sunday into next week with dangerous
   heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Early this afternoon a compact area of low pressure/vort max was
sliding southeast out of far southeast Kansas into far northeast
Oklahoma. At the same time, multiple outflow boundaries remained
across northeast Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas. The
combination of these features drifting southeast through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will aid in continued shower/storm
chances through tonight. The greater storm potential is expected
this afternoon through the late evening hours mainly along and
south of the more defined outflow boundary currently from Creek co
to Delaware co. As a side note, the original boundary was also
located from Creek co to Carroll co.

Latest thinking is for storm coverage to remain isolated to widely
scattered through the afternoon for the CWA, and develop into
more scattered clusters this evening into tonight over east
central/southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. For the afternoon
to mid evening, hot and humid conditions along with an unstable
atmosphere will create a limited potential for strong to severe
storms. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with a
secondary threat of hail. The limited strong/severe potential
looks to remain through the late evening hours before decreasing
from the weakening instability. Shower/storm chances remain into
the early morning hours Saturday for mainly south of Interstate
40, with the greater potential in far southeast Oklahoma. In
addition to the severe potential, a locally heavy rain threat also
exists into tonight from the ample amounts of atmospheric
moisture.

Also this afternoon into early evening, the hot and humid
conditions ahead of the outflow boundary are expected to create
high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 deg and heat index
values in 100 to 108 deg range. Thus, for now will continue with
the current Heat Advisory, though cloud cover and the outflow
boundaries could keep the northern periphery of the advisory from
reaching criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Shower/storm chances linger across parts of southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas during the day Saturday before the remnants
of the surface boundaries and the compact area of low pressure
exit. Behind/north of the precip chances, cloud cover is forecast
to become more scattered allowing for hot/humid conditions to
spread over much of the CWA. Forecast high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100 deg are anticipated along with heat
index values of 100 to 108 deg. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
much of eastern Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River valley of
west central Arkansas from Noon to 8 PM. Conditions in west
central Arkansas could be impacted from the low precip chances
depending on how long it lingers. Have also kept far southeast
Oklahoma out of the advisory due to the precip chances. Shower and
storm chances finally exit the CWA by Saturday evening.

High pressure centered out west is progged to expand eastward into
the southern Plains Sunday and remain through the first half of
next week. In response. the ongoing heat and humidity are forecast
to remain common for the CWA through the middle of next week.
Thus, afternoon temperatures of upper 90s to around 102 deg are
forecast for most locations, and combined with heat index values
of 100 to 109 deg will create likely heat headlines each day for
much of the CWA. There are some indications for the latter part of
next week for the ridge to retreat westward with a shortwave
dropping through the Plains. If this trend conditions, then
precip chances could return toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will ultimately prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Although mostly quiet for the time being, daytime
heating and multiple ongoing outflow boundaries across the area will
likely promote additional convective development later this
afternoon and into this evening across E OK and NW AR. Made some
adjustments to the PROB30 groups in the TAFs to reflect latest CAM
guidance timing of precip. Movement of convection this afternoon
will shift generally from north to south or northwest to southeast
into this evening... possibly lingering through or just beyond
midnight tonight at KMLC and KFSM. Periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR will
likely occur with more aggressive and heavier precipitation.
Prevailing surface winds stay generally light to moderate out of
south or southwest through the period, with erratic wind shifts
and gusts with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  75 100  77 /  30  20   0   0
FSM  100  76  98  76 /  30  40  20   0
MLC  100  75  99  74 /  30  30  20   0
BVO   95  70 100  73 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   96  70  95  72 /  40  40  20   0
BYV   95  71  93  72 /  50  50  20   0
MKO   99  73  97  73 /  30  40  10   0
MIO   93  71  97  74 /  50  20  10   0
F10   99  73  99  73 /  30  30  10   0
HHW   98  75  96  74 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>068-070-
     071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-354.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-064>067-070-
     071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ119-120-129-
     219-220.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-081800-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
1258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA... East Central and Southeast Oklahoma as well as Northwest
			Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast into early
evening for much of the region along and ahead of an outflow
boundary and compact area of low pressure moving southeast through
northeast Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms are then forecast to
continue this evening through tonight across east central and
southeast Oklahoma and also western Arkansas. Limited severe
weather potential exists through late evening with locally
damaging winds the primary threat and large hail a secondary
threat. Severe potentials are forecast to weaken overnight tonight
as instability decreases.

Also this afternoon into early evening, hot and humid conditions
south of the outflow boundaries will create heat index values in
the 100 to 107 degree range. The greater potential is across east
central and southeast Oklahoma as well as parts of northwest
Arkansas. Conditions improve after sunset with the expanding storm
chances.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous
						 Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm chances linger into Saturday for parts of southeast Oklahoma
and western Arkansas before the surface boundaries finally exit
the region. North of the precipitation chances, hot and humid
conditions spread across much of the region. The heat and humidity
are forecast to continue Sunday through much of next week as the
ridge of high pressure expands eastward into the southern Plains.
Heat index values of 100 to 109 degrees are possible each day
through the middle of next week. A break may develop late next
week with an area of low pressure possibly moving into the Plains.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
136 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ065-066-071900-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
136 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 136 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Okemah, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Henryetta...
Clearview...                      Pharoah...
Bryant...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 216 and
236.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9637 3557 9635 3562 9599 3533 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 274DEG 16KT 3549 9625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
158 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ065-066-071930-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
158 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Okemah, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Henryetta...
Weleetka...                       Dewar...
Schulter...                       Bearden...
Castle...                         Clearview...
Pharoah...                        Bryant...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 215 and
240.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 9638 3558 9594 3538 9594 3538 9598
      3529 9598 3531 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 269DEG 6KT 3545 9626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ064-065-071930-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
203 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
southeast of Davenport, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Boley...                          Paden...
Welty...                          Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 178.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 9662 3580 9636 3541 9639 3542 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3545 9649 3544 9648
      3543 9649 3545 9654 3546 9654 3545 9656
      3547 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 270DEG 13KT 3564 9668

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ065-071-073-072045-
Pittsburg OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...
NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345
PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Dustin, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hanna...                          Scipio...
Vernon...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603 3512 9601
      3515 9601 3515 9598 3529 9598 3529 9605
      3537 9604 3531 9581 3495 9595 3498 9609
      3505 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 290DEG 9KT 3526 9600

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ071-073-072100-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Lamar, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Haywood...                        Scipio...
Arpelar...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603
      3512 9601 3515 9601 3515 9598 3520 9598
      3514 9579 3476 9600 3480 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 315DEG 11KT 3500 9607

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ061-067-072115-
Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
339 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ROGERS AND WESTERN
WAGONER COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Coweta, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wagoner...                        Coweta...
Inola...                          Oneta...
Redbird...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9538 3585 9565 3586 9565 3586 9569
      3595 9576 3599 9576 3619 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 237DEG 13KT 3594 9566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia