Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Tulsa, OK

115 
WGUS74 KTSA 080143
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
843 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ARC015-087-080153-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260808T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Carroll AR-Madison AR-
843 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3627 9363 3631 9361 3633 9359 3634 9357
      3625 9341 3611 9356 3618 9368

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat
   Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central
   Arkansas Friday and Saturday.

 - Rain and storm chances continue for much of eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas Friday night, and southeast Oklahoma
   into western Arkansas Saturday.

 - Drier conditions expected Sunday into next week with dangerous
   heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Early this afternoon a compact area of low pressure/vort max was
sliding southeast out of far southeast Kansas into far northeast
Oklahoma. At the same time, multiple outflow boundaries remained
across northeast Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas. The
combination of these features drifting southeast through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will aid in continued shower/storm
chances through tonight. The greater storm potential is expected
this afternoon through the late evening hours mainly along and
south of the more defined outflow boundary currently from Creek co
to Delaware co. As a side note, the original boundary was also
located from Creek co to Carroll co.

Latest thinking is for storm coverage to remain isolated to widely
scattered through the afternoon for the CWA, and develop into
more scattered clusters this evening into tonight over east
central/southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. For the afternoon
to mid evening, hot and humid conditions along with an unstable
atmosphere will create a limited potential for strong to severe
storms. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with a
secondary threat of hail. The limited strong/severe potential
looks to remain through the late evening hours before decreasing
from the weakening instability. Shower/storm chances remain into
the early morning hours Saturday for mainly south of Interstate
40, with the greater potential in far southeast Oklahoma. In
addition to the severe potential, a locally heavy rain threat also
exists into tonight from the ample amounts of atmospheric
moisture.

Also this afternoon into early evening, the hot and humid
conditions ahead of the outflow boundary are expected to create
high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 deg and heat index
values in 100 to 108 deg range. Thus, for now will continue with
the current Heat Advisory, though cloud cover and the outflow
boundaries could keep the northern periphery of the advisory from
reaching criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Shower/storm chances linger across parts of southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas during the day Saturday before the remnants
of the surface boundaries and the compact area of low pressure
exit. Behind/north of the precip chances, cloud cover is forecast
to become more scattered allowing for hot/humid conditions to
spread over much of the CWA. Forecast high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100 deg are anticipated along with heat
index values of 100 to 108 deg. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
much of eastern Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River valley of
west central Arkansas from Noon to 8 PM. Conditions in west
central Arkansas could be impacted from the low precip chances
depending on how long it lingers. Have also kept far southeast
Oklahoma out of the advisory due to the precip chances. Shower and
storm chances finally exit the CWA by Saturday evening.

High pressure centered out west is progged to expand eastward into
the southern Plains Sunday and remain through the first half of
next week. In response. the ongoing heat and humidity are forecast
to remain common for the CWA through the middle of next week.
Thus, afternoon temperatures of upper 90s to around 102 deg are
forecast for most locations, and combined with heat index values
of 100 to 109 deg will create likely heat headlines each day for
much of the CWA. There are some indications for the latter part of
next week for the ridge to retreat westward with a shortwave
dropping through the Plains. If this trend conditions, then
precip chances could return toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Potential for thunderstorm impacts on-station remains the aviation
forecast challenge for the next 6 to 12 hours. Greatest potential
for such will occur in the first 4 to 5 hours of the TAF period at
the W AR sites, where PROB30 groups will be maintained. A lower
chance exists at MLC, but given radar and lightning trends, the
lightning should remain outside the vicinity of that terminal. A
very low chance of storms this evening exists for TUL/RVS but
given the satellite presentation, think that the chance is
decreasing for development that far north and west. Mainly mid and
high clouds should prevail outside of periods featuring
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75 100  77 100 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   76  98  76 100 /  40  20   0   0
MLC   75  99  74 100 /  30  20   0   0
BVO   70 100  73 101 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   70  95  72  97 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   71  93  72  96 /  50  20   0   0
MKO   73  97  73 100 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   71  97  74  98 /  20  10   0   0
F10   73  99  73 100 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   75  96  74  98 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>068-070-
     071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-354.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ176-272-276.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ119-120-129-
     219-220.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-082215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
511 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...West-Central Arkansas; portions of East-Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas will have the potential to produce damaging downburst
winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. Any storm clusters
that can form from a common outflow will have the potential to
produce a swath of damaging wind. The severe threat will wane by
mid-evening. Slow-moving storms will have the potential to produce
locally heavy rainfall as well.

Dangerous heat indices around 105 degrees are ongoing in the lower
Arkansas River Valley in far east-central Oklahoma into west-
central Arkansas, as well as far southeast Oklahoma closer to the
Red River. Conditions will improve either from storm activity and
outflow or by 8 PM this evening as night time cooling begins.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Storm chances linger into Saturday for parts of southeast Oklahoma
and western Arkansas before the surface boundaries finally exit
the region. North of the precipitation chances, hot and humid
conditions spread across much of the region. The heat and humidity
are forecast to continue Sunday through much of next week as the
ridge of high pressure expands eastward into the southern Plains.
Heat index values of 100 to 109 degrees are possible each day
through the middle of next week. A break may develop late next
week with an area of low pressure possibly moving into the Plains.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
347 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             Gateway                 36.49N 93.93W
08/06/2026  M1.00 Inch       Benton             AR   Public

            Delayed report. Public report to NWS Little
            Rock social media and then relayed to our
            office. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ276-376-072215-
Southern Le Flore OK-Central Le Flore OK-
446 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles south of Heavener to 5 miles east of Big
Cedar to 6 miles southwest of Mountain Fork. Movement was northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Le
Flore County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 9461 3481 9468 3494 9445 3451 9446
      3451 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 222DEG 10KT 3479 9460 3466 9456 3456 9449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
449 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ376-072215-
Southern Le Flore OK-
449 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Octavia. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Octavia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9479 3461 9461 3451 9461 3451 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 222DEG 2KT 3452 9468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ376-072300-
Southern Le Flore OK-
529 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
east of Octavia. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Le
Flore County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9471 3458 9466 3458 9446 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 295DEG 2KT 3451 9463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ARZ002-011-072300-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-
530 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND CENTRAL
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Rudd, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Green Forest...
Osage...                          Rudd...
Rule...                           Marble...
Rockhouse...                      Dryfork...
Cabanal...                        Metalton...
Connor...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9360 3630 9370 3645 9347 3617 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 239DEG 10KT 3625 9358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ049-276-376-072300-
Southern Le Flore OK-Pushmataha OK-Central Le Flore OK-
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles south of Heavener to 6 miles southeast of
Albion to 6 miles west of Octavia. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Octavia...
Whitesboro...                     Muse...
Big Cedar...                      Hodgen...
Honobia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 9507 3491 9463 3493 9445 3458 9446
      3458 9466 3451 9471 3451 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 292DEG 8KT 3480 9463 3461 9500 3453 9482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH