Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

 - Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat
   Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central
   Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

 - Rain and storm chances return to the northern half of the area
   through Friday night, with the best chances this evening into
   Friday morning. Marginal risk of severe weather late this
   afternoon through tonight.

 - Drier conditions expected this weekend into next week with
   dangerous heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Another hot day is in store with heat indices up to 109 degrees
across much of northeast Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River
Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8
PM this evening. Morning convection has left a weak MCV and
outflow boundary across N-Central Oklahoma which may produce
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon for areas along and north of
Hwy 412. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
across the higher terrain of SE OK and W AR. Higher thunderstorm
chances are then forecast this evening and through tonight across
far NE OK and NW AR as the LLJ strengthens.

As is typical for this time of year, deep inverted-V sounding
profiles will be present today and storms may produce downbursts
and strong wind gusts. By late afternoon into tonight, higher
shear will be in place across northern portions of the area and
permit better storm organization. Thus, a marginal risk for severe
weather is forecast across NE OK and NW AR. Damaging winds will
be the primary concern through this evening, with large hail
becoming a greater threat late this evening and tonight. Highest
storm chances (and associated severe potential) are expected to
remain in the vicinity of Hwy 412 and north for much of the
evening and tonight.

As the LLJ strengthens overnight, latest CAMs suggest SE KS into
far NE OK and NW AR will be the favored zone for storm
redevelopment and potential training through the early morning
hours. Where this occurs, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may
provide at least low potential for excessive rainfall and
localized flash flooding. However, the recent dry spell should
help limit impacts overall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Showers and storms will probably be ongoing Friday morning for
portions of NE OK and NW AR. Isolated to scattered redevelopment
will be possible across much of the forecast area tomorrow
afternoon and evening, with a preference for SE OK and W AR.
Again, a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible Friday afternoon and evening. Low shower and thunderstorm
chances may linger across far E OK and NW AR Friday night into
early Saturday as another disturbance passes by, but mainly
influences areas to our east. Then, for the most part, dry
conditions are likely this weekend and into next week as weak-
moderate ridging sits overhead.

Temperatures Friday will be influenced significantly by
convective evolution tonight into the morning hours. Higher
coverage of clouds and precipitation may limit heating over parts
of NE OK and NW AR Friday. But for locations unaffected by cloud
cover, strong afternoon heating is still expected with
temperatures warming into the upper 90s. Thus, heat indices
greater than 105 degrees will again be possible for parts of E OK
and the AR River Valley, but confidence in exactly where this
occurs is lower than previous days. For now, have issued a Heat
Advisory for portions of E OK south of Tulsa, as well as in the AR
River Valley, where clouds may not be as expansive. However,
changes to the configuration may be required in future forecast
updates based on convective trends. Additional heat headlines
then appear probable this weekend and into early next week as high
temperatures remain within a few degrees of 100 and humidity
remains elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect the far northwest
Arkansas sites this evening, and may affect the northeast Oklahoma
sites late tonight into Friday morning. Isolated storms may occur
Friday afternoon as well, but chances are too low to include in
the TAF's at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  96  76 101 /  30  20  20   0
FSM   78  99  75  99 /  10  30  30  10
MLC   78  99  76  99 /   0  20  20   0
BVO   72  96  71 101 /  40  40  20   0
FYV   74  94  72  96 /  20  30  30  10
BYV   75  92  72  95 /  30  40  30  10
MKO   76  97  73  98 /  20  20  30   0
MIO   73  93  72  97 /  50  50  20   0
F10   76  99  74 100 /  20  20  20   0
HHW   77  98  76  96 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-064>068-
     070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ064>066-070-
     071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-072230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and North of Highway 412.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Another hot day will continue across eastern Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas with heat indices up to 108 degrees. Potential for isolated
thunderstorms development late this afternoon remains in the
vicinity of a weak boundary in far northern Oklahoma. A few strong
to locally severe storms may occur into early evening, with the
main threat being damaging downburst wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Activity should largely stay confined to parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas along and north of Highway 412.

Additional thunderstorm development along the front remains
expected into the overnight hours, with potential for a localized
heavy rainfall threat where storms move over the same areas
impacted by earlier activity. A few instances of large hail may
also occur.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again Friday afternoon
and evening, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas as the weak boundary progresses southward through the
region. A few storms could be strong to severe again Friday
afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts the main concerns
along with locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise, the main story for the weekend and into next week will
be continued hot conditions across the region. High temperatures
routinely near or in excess of 100 degrees will be common with
heat headlines likely to continue at least for portions of the
forecast area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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