Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely tonight into Sunday
   morning. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are
   likely.

 - Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
   this afternoon.

 - Overall cooler and drier weather is expected through mid next
   week before warmer and wetter weather returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Earlier storm activity left a wake of cooler and stable air across
the area, but a surge of warm and humid air is quickly moving north
and scouring out the cooler air. In the immediate short term that
will result in hot and humid conditions developing, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for a portion of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.

One potentially interesting forecast wrinkle this afternoon will be
a subtle mid level circulation approaching from the west, evident on
visible satellite imagery. CAMs have off and on suggested a few
storms may pop near and north of I-40 this afternoon in response to
this feature, but confidence is low. With that said, if storms did
form, they could become severe given huge instability that is
expected to be in place. Hail would be the dominant threat.
Otherwise, warm advection showers near the OK-KS border also remain
possible into the afternoon.

By late evening and into the overnight hours a strong cold front
will move in from the northwest. Upper level support will be weak
with the trough well removed to the north, but there will be
enough upper level flow and diffluence for storms to develop. Very
large instability will help strong storms to develop near the
front, but line parallel shear will promote quick upscale growth.
Accordingly, a line of storms will form and then move through the
area. Severe weather will be a concern, with strong winds being
the main threat, with a spin up tornado or large hail being
secondary concerns. Very heavy rain is expected with elevated
atmospheric water content across the area. A widespread 1-3
inches is expected with locally higher amounts. Such heavy totals,
along with recent rains, will promote a flood risk along area
rivers and in any location that sees the higher rain rates. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas most likely to be
impacted. Thunderstorms will switch to just showers north of I-40
Sunday morning, with thunderstorms continuing south of the
interstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through Sunday, focusing
south of I-40. A relatively cool northerly breeze will keep
temperatures down Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s. Dew points will also briefly drop as
conditions dry out. A few spots may even reach the upper 50s
Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Temperatures will rebound mid week with a temporary resurgence of
upper level ridging, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. By this
point, a strong trough in the Great Lakes lakes region will help
to strengthen the flow aloft. At the same time, an ejecting
trough out of the southwest will increase low level moisture and
instability. The result will be a resurgence of rain and thunder
chances, continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will cool
slightly to near normal during this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Ongoing convection will continue to spread eastward across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into mid evening.
Within the convection, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and also
brief MVFR conditions are possible. Additional convection and
showers along a cold front are expected to move southward into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas mid evening, and
then spread southward into Sunday morning. Again, gusty to strong
winds, heavy rains and MVFR conditions are capable within the
main convective line. Behind the main area of convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast with MVFR conditions
becoming more likely into Sunday morning. Conditions look to lift
back to VFR mid/late morning for northeast Oklahoma and during
early/mid afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly, become
variable with the storms and then transition out of the west and
then northerly during the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  76  61  79 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   73  83  66  81 /  90  50  20  10
MLC   72  80  65  79 /  90  60  20  10
BVO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10  10   0
FYV   69  78  58  79 /  90  40   0   0
BYV   67  76  57  78 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   70  77  61  78 /  90  40  10   0
MIO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10   0   0
F10   69  77  61  78 /  90  40  20   0
HHW   74  83  68  79 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
     067>069.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061-
     064-067-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-142230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THREATS INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Northwest
		   Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Additional This Evening into Tonight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to spread across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into this evening as a surface
boundary remained over the region. A severe threat with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat
will also continue this evening. Storms moving over the same
locations will create a heavy rain threat, which could lead to
localized flooding conditions.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and cold
front in Kansas and move southward over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas mid evening through tonight. Severe potentials
with all modes of severe weather will exist at the onset as these
storms move into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Through the late evening hours, severe potentials are forecast to
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight
hours. After midnight, severe potentials begin to weaken the
farther southward the storms push. In addition to the severe
threat, a very heavy rain threat continues through tonight, which
will increase flash flooding concerns and also the threat for
rises in streams and rivers. A Flood Watch remains in effect into
Sunday for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
where rainfall amounts locally of 4 to 5 inches are possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
		    Heat Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will gradually taper off Sunday from north to
south. Severe potentials are not anticipated, though a locally
heavy rain threat continues into Sunday. Cooler and drier weather
will settle in through Monday. These conditions are short lived
as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads back in the middle of
next week. With the return of southerly winds, moisture will
stream back into the area, with additional storm chances
increasing for the latter half of next week. Limited severe
potentials as well as a heavy rain threat could develop late next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should be ready for a period of severe weather
operations through tonight. Those prone to river flooding should
closely follow the latest conditions and forecasts and be ready
for flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ057-062-132345-
Craig OK-Mayes OK-
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
west of Cleora, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Langley...
Ketchum...                        Disney...
Big Cabin...                      Cherokee State Park...
Disney Little Blue State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 276 and 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 9500 3660 9500 3658 9501 3645 9501
      3652 9524 3669 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 269DEG 24KT 3659 9505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
701 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ058-063-140030-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
701 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND
SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 700 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Afton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Grove...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Bernice...                        Narcissa...
Bernice State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 294 and 309.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9469 3660 9493 3673 9500 3682 9500
      3691 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 249DEG 14KT 3670 9491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
731 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             Maysville               36.40N 94.60W
06/13/2026  E1.00 Inch       Benton             AR   Storm Chaser

&&

KAH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
739 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SW Maysville          36.36N 94.65W
06/13/2026  M64 MPH          Delaware           OK   Trained Spotter

            Report relayed via broadcast media.

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Maysville               36.40N 94.60W
06/13/2026                   Benton             AR   Trained Spotter

            Large tree branch down in Maysville. Report
            relayed via broadcast media.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
748 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ058-063-140115-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
748 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND
WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Fairland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Bernice...                        Narcissa...
Bernice State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 294 and 310.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9467 3662 9494 3671 9500 3683 9500
      3695 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 240DEG 15KT 3674 9492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
821 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-010-011-140145-
Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
821 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BENTON...NORTHWESTERN
MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 821 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Cave Springs, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Lowell...                         Elkins...
Tontitown...                      Cave Springs...
Highfill...                       War Eagle...
Hobbs State Park...               Johnson...
Elm Springs...                    Goshen...
Tuttle...                         Mayfield...
Monte Ne...                       Healing Springs...
Rocky Comfort...                  Best...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 61 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 9398 3616 9440 3634 9422 3631 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 297DEG 36KT 3622 9419

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH