River Flood Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 - Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday.
   Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.

 - Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and
   wetter weather returns mid week.

 -  Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the
    week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy
    rain threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast
Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest
severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized
gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into
Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as
instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the
majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading
line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind
threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday.

In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also
been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash
flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which
will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will
continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther
south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to
be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.

During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the
region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40
and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal
boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of
convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional
severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day.
Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light
with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day,
cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure
beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday
look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.

Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday
night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the
wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to
fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to
touch upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which
will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may
remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours
before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast.
Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become
short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the
backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level
flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure
system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In
response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing
Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday
night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance
PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited
severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma
as this complex pushes in.

Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid
airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter
half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled
with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and
a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday.
Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to
develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions
indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early
next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Strong to severe line of thunderstorms moving southeast across nern
OK and nwrn AR at this time resulting in significant aviation impacts
(strong wind, IFR VSBY, MVFR CIG) to terminals early in the forecast
period as this convection affects all airports by 10z. MVFR CIGS
develop early Sunday morning most sites as cold front moves through
the region. Improving CIGS from north to south beginning late morning
through afternoon, with VFR expected all sites by 15/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  61  78  61 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   83  66  82  64 /  50  20  10   0
MLC   80  65  81  63 /  50  20  10   0
BVO   75  57  78  58 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   78  59  79  58 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   76  58  76  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   77  62  78  60 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   76  58  77  59 /  10  10   0   0
F10   77  61  78  59 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   83  67  79  65 /  80  50  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-142230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THREATS INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Northwest
		   Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Additional This Evening into Tonight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to spread across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into this evening as a surface
boundary remained over the region. A severe threat with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat
will also continue this evening. Storms moving over the same
locations will create a heavy rain threat, which could lead to
localized flooding conditions.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and cold
front in Kansas and move southward over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas mid evening through tonight. Severe potentials
with all modes of severe weather will exist at the onset as these
storms move into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Through the late evening hours, severe potentials are forecast to
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight
hours. After midnight, severe potentials begin to weaken the
farther southward the storms push. In addition to the severe
threat, a very heavy rain threat continues through tonight, which
will increase flash flooding concerns and also the threat for
rises in streams and rivers. A Flood Watch remains in effect into
Sunday for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
where rainfall amounts locally of 4 to 5 inches are possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
		    Heat Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will gradually taper off Sunday from north to
south. Severe potentials are not anticipated, though a locally
heavy rain threat continues into Sunday. Cooler and drier weather
will settle in through Monday. These conditions are short lived
as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads back in the middle of
next week. With the return of southerly winds, moisture will
stream back into the area, with additional storm chances
increasing for the latter half of next week. Limited severe
potentials as well as a heavy rain threat could develop late next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should be ready for a period of severe weather
operations through tonight. Those prone to river flooding should
closely follow the latest conditions and forecasts and be ready
for flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

OKZ066>068-070-071-073-074-172-272-140630-
Haskell OK-Northern Sequoyah OK-Central and Southern Sequoyah OK-
Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
McIntosh OK-
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HASKELL...
MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1259 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Hulbert to 3 miles west of
Keefeton to 2 miles west of Stidham. Movement was southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Eufaula...
Henryetta...                      Fort Gibson...
Checotah...                       Haskell...
Warner...                         Morris...
Gore...                           Dewar...
Porum...                          Webbers Falls...
Porter...                         Schulter...
Crowder...                        Oktaha...
Braggs...                         Taft...
Boynton...                        Canadian...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 232 and
293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 9574 3590 9559 3570 9481 3531 9518
      3501 9572 3530 9598 3538 9598 3538 9605
      3542 9609 3544 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 319DEG 23KT 3587 9513 3559 9540 3537 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
117 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

ARZ010-011-119-120-129-219-220-OKZ068-069-172-176-272-140700-
Madison AR-Washington AR-Central and Southern Franklin AR-
Southern Crawford AR-Northern Crawford AR-Northern Franklin AR-
North and Central Sebastian AR-Northern Sequoyah OK-
Central and Southern Sequoyah OK-Adair OK-Northern Le Flore OK-
Cherokee OK-
117 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...NORTHERN SEBASTIAN...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...
EASTERN SEQUOYAH...ADAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH
200 AM CDT...

At 116 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of St. Paul to Devils Den State
Park to 3 miles south of Eldon. Movement was south at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Ozark...                          Charleston...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Natural Dam...                    Alma...
Barling...                        Prairie Grove...
Muldrow...                        Roland...
Elkins...                         West Fork...
Lavaca...                         Lincoln...
Arkoma...                         Mulberry...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 42.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 305 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 13.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas...and southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9370 3538 9371 3537 9375 3540 9379
      3542 9380 3531 9381 3532 9392 3527 9392
      3524 9406 3538 9481 3601 9495 3597 9426
      3604 9380 3577 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 342DEG 35KT 3586 9370 3576 9426 3587 9484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia

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