Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday.
   Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.

 - Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and
   wetter weather returns mid week.

 -  Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the
    week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy
    rain threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast
Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest
severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized
gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into
Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as
instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the
majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading
line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind
threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday.

In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also
been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash
flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which
will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will
continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther
south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to
be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.

During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the
region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40
and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal
boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of
convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional
severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day.
Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light
with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day,
cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure
beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday
look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.

Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday
night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the
wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to
fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to
touch upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which
will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may
remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours
before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast.
Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become
short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the
backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level
flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure
system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In
response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing
Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday
night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance
PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited
severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma
as this complex pushes in.

Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid
airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter
half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled
with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and
a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday.
Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to
develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions
indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early
next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Ongoing convection will continue to spread eastward across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into mid evening.
Within the convection, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and also
brief MVFR conditions are possible. Additional convection and
showers along a cold front are expected to move southward into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas mid evening, and
then spread southward into Sunday morning. Again, gusty to strong
winds, heavy rains and MVFR conditions are capable within the
main convective line. Behind the main area of convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast with MVFR conditions
becoming more likely into Sunday morning. Conditions look to lift
back to VFR mid/late morning for northeast Oklahoma and during
early/mid afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly, become
variable with the storms and then transition out of the west and
then northerly during the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  76  61  78 /  90  20  10   0
FSM   74  83  66  82 /  90  50  20  10
MLC   73  80  65  81 /  90  50  20  10
BVO   66  75  57  78 / 100  20  10   0
FYV   69  78  59  79 /  90  20  10   0
BYV   67  76  58  76 /  90  20  10   0
MKO   70  77  62  78 /  90  30  10   0
MIO   67  76  58  77 / 100  10  10   0
F10   69  77  61  78 /  90  40  10   0
HHW   75  83  67  79 /  70  80  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-142230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THREATS INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Northwest
		   Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Additional This Evening into Tonight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to spread across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into this evening as a surface
boundary remained over the region. A severe threat with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat
will also continue this evening. Storms moving over the same
locations will create a heavy rain threat, which could lead to
localized flooding conditions.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and cold
front in Kansas and move southward over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas mid evening through tonight. Severe potentials
with all modes of severe weather will exist at the onset as these
storms move into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Through the late evening hours, severe potentials are forecast to
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight
hours. After midnight, severe potentials begin to weaken the
farther southward the storms push. In addition to the severe
threat, a very heavy rain threat continues through tonight, which
will increase flash flooding concerns and also the threat for
rises in streams and rivers. A Flood Watch remains in effect into
Sunday for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
where rainfall amounts locally of 4 to 5 inches are possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
		    Heat Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will gradually taper off Sunday from north to
south. Severe potentials are not anticipated, though a locally
heavy rain threat continues into Sunday. Cooler and drier weather
will settle in through Monday. These conditions are short lived
as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads back in the middle of
next week. With the return of southerly winds, moisture will
stream back into the area, with additional storm chances
increasing for the latter half of next week. Limited severe
potentials as well as a heavy rain threat could develop late next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should be ready for a period of severe weather
operations through tonight. Those prone to river flooding should
closely follow the latest conditions and forecasts and be ready
for flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
854 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ010-011-140245-
Madison AR-Washington AR-
854 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
north of Elkins, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Huntsville...
Elkins...                         Hindsville...
Wesley...                         Japton...
Goshen...                         Georgetown...
Tuttle...                         Sulphur City...
Mayfield...                       Delaney...
Hicks...                          Crosses...
Patrick...                        Durham...
Sonora...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 9390 3606 9420 3621 9403 3611 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 303DEG 20KT 3609 9403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
913 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ059-154-140245-
Western Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
913 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 913 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Sooner Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Ralston...
Skedee...                         Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9703 3651 9701 3653 9700 3654 9694
      3659 9696 3658 9702 3661 9700 3660 9693
      3655 9694 3656 9689 3658 9689 3659 9691
      3659 9687 3654 9662 3625 9676 3638 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 298DEG 34KT 3650 9698

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ055-060-061-254-354-140315-
Tulsa OK-Southeast Osage OK-Rogers OK-Northeast Osage OK-
Washington OK-
939 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
southwest of Avant, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Owasso...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Sperry...
Ramona...                         Avant...
Vera...                           Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9623 3654 9613 3655 9577 3618 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 278DEG 40KT 3640 9615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Pawnee             36.33N 96.81W
06/13/2026                   Pawnee             OK   Amateur Radio

            large limbs down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1117 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Oilton              36.08N 96.58W
06/13/2026  M65 MPH          Creek              OK   Amateur Radio

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ055-060-061-064>067-070-071-354-140515-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Southeast Osage OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-
Okfuskee OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
1145 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK...NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...WAGONER...OKMULGEE...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE...TULSA AND
NORTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1145 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles west of Oologah to 3 miles south of
Catoosa to 5 miles southeast of Glenpool to 2 miles east of Slick to
8 miles south of Stroud. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Muskogee...                       Sand Springs...
Claremore...                      Okmulgee...
Bristow...                        Owasso...
Bixby...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Okfuskee...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Mannford...                       Drumright...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 9662 3601 9647 3616 9626 3633 9606
      3646 9598 3641 9547 3579 9540 3554 9565
      3543 9616 3550 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 314DEG 37KT 3644 9579 3613 9576 3589 9596 3577
9622 3563 9662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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