Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, with a large area of
   heat advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening.

 - Storm chances increase this afternoon into the overnight, with
   potential for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

 - Storm chances continue into Sunday and into early next week,
   and temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals through at
   the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Continued hot and humid conditions and increasing potential for
localized severe weather and heavy rainfall dominate the weather
concerns through tonight. An outflow boundary remains stretched
across parts of northeast Oklahoma just to the south of the Kansas
border eastward into southwest Missouri. As expected, dew points
have increased along and south of the boundary, with values mainly
in the mid 70s areawide and running a few degrees higher than this
same time yesterday. Highest confidence in advisory level heat
index values remains covered by the existing advisory and no
changes are planned at this time. Will have to watch trends in Creek
and Okfuskee counties, which may get close to 105 before all is
said and done this afternoon.

Early to mid afternoon thunderstorm development remains most
likely across portions of northwest Arkansas, primarily east of
I-49, due to the closest proximity to the upper level disturbance
moving east-southeastward through central and eastern Missouri.
More scattered to numerous development near the aforementioned
boundary becomes more likely late afternoon and into the evening
across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. The timing
of this development is later than reflected in earlier forecasts,
with the higher POPs delayed until after 00Z. Locally damaging
winds remain the primary severe weather threat, although with the
expectation of a slight uptick in deep layer shear, the threat for
marginally severe hail will also exist. With precipitable water
values from 1.75 to 2 inches in much of the area, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms occur. At least scattered thunderstorms will persist
into early Sunday morning, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and
into west central Arkansas, although the chance for severe weather
should be decreased.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday
morning across areas along and south of I-40. Additional strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon in
areas near the Red River near a surface boundary and a slow moving
disturbance in the region. Across a good chunk of the area,
slightly cooler and drier conditions will move in Sunday, bringing
an end to the current stretch of heat and humidity. The need for
additional Heat Advisories on Sunday appears very low at this
time. Into Monday, low chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain focused near the Red River and near normal temperatures
will prevail during the afternoon. The overall details in the
weather pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week
remain somewhat uncertain, with the potent upper high centered
across the Northern Plains and easterly flow aloft across the
area. Given the position of the upper high, the area should remain
out of extreme heat for much of next week. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue, particularly during the
afternoons and in the more favored, higher terrain areas. Late in
the week and into next weekend, the upper level high looks to
shift to the south and west, putting the region in a more
favorable pattern for above normal temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Ongoing convection across nern OK and nwrn AR will impact those sites
for the first several hours into the forecast period. Mainly VFR CIGS
but IFR VSBY likely with the convection that impacts any site. The
convection is expected to gradually develop southward late evening
and overnight. Latest guidance supports MVFR VSBY late tonight most
sites in light fog with TSRA chances continuing into Sunday morning
MLC. VFR expected to return mid morning through the end of the
forecast period on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  71  92 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   75  93  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
MLC   75  93  72  93 /  60  30  20  20
BVO   70  90  68  90 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   69  90  67  89 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   67  89  66  88 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   72  90  71  91 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   69  90  68  90 /  20  10   0   0
F10   72  90  70  91 /  60  20  10  10
HHW   75  91  72  92 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062-
     064>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-122145-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
439 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Along and North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed over northwestern Arkansas this
afternoon as well as across north central Oklahoma. A weak surface
boundary remained stretched across northeastern Oklahoma into
northwestern Arkansas. Additional thunderstorms are possible along
this boundary this evening, as the activity to the west also moves
into northeastern Oklahoma. All of the thunderstorm activity will
gradually develop slowly to the east and southeast this evening and
early tonight. Areas along and north of I-40 have the highest chance
of seeing severe weather through late evening, with damaging winds to
75 mph the main threat. The shower and thunderstorm axis will shift
southward with time into southeast Oklahoma after midnight tonight,
although the potential for additional severe weather is likely to
have diminished. Locally heavy rain will be a concern areawide
through the overnight, with localized flooding potential highest in
areas that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon, combined with high
humidity, have resulted in heat index values in the 101 to 109
degree range. These conditions will continue into the evening, and a
Heat Advisory is in effect for a large portion of eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the daylight hours on
Sunday, with additional afternoon development mainly near the Red
River possible. A low chance of severe weather will exist for this
area Sunday afternoon. Cooler and drier conditions will exist for
most of the area Sunday, extending into early next week, with
afternoon temperatures near seasonal normals. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances will persist each day, particularly during the
afternoon and focused in the higher terrain areas of southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A shift in the overall weather pattern
may lead to a return in above normal temperatures toward the latter
part of next week and into next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
703 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Hail             4 NNW Broken Arrow      36.11N 95.83W
07/11/2026  M1.25 Inch       Tulsa              OK   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
707 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

OKZ062-120045-
Mayes OK-
707 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Pryor Creek. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Sportsmen Acres Community...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 9540 3642 9541 3637 9518 3622 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 306DEG 3KT 3631 9525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

OKZ154-254-354-120045-
Southeast Osage OK-Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-
717 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH 745
PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
west of Pawhuska, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Wynona...
Pershing...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 9657 3677 9635 3653 9624 3649 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 232DEG 16KT 3669 9644

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
726 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ARZ010-119-120100-
Washington AR-Northern Crawford AR-
726 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 726 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southwest of Strickler, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Winslow...                        Chester...
Strickler...                      Devils Den State Park...
Blackburn...                      Odell...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 36 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 9419 3568 9427 3573 9443 3576 9446
      3588 9441 3582 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 296DEG 11KT 3578 9438

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

OKZ060-061-067-120100-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
727 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Verdigris. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Claremore...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 231 and 245.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9586 3632 9577 3633 9563 3611 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 250DEG 4KT 3625 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
742 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Locust Grove        36.17N 95.17W
07/11/2026                   Mayes              OK   Trained Spotter

            trees across road; time estimated from
            radar.

&&