Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, with a large area of
   heat advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening.

 - Storm chances increase this afternoon into the overnight, with
   potential for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

 - Storm chances continue into Sunday and into early next week,
   and temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals through at
   the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Continued hot and humid conditions and increasing potential for
localized severe weather and heavy rainfall dominate the weather
concerns through tonight. An outflow boundary remains stretched
across parts of northeast Oklahoma just to the south of the Kansas
border eastward into southwest Missouri. As expected, dew points
have increased along and south of the boundary, with values mainly
in the mid 70s areawide and running a few degrees higher than this
same time yesterday. Highest confidence in advisory level heat
index values remains covered by the existing advisory and no
changes are planned at this time. Will have to watch trends in Creek
and Okfuskee counties, which may get close to 105 before all is
said and done this afternoon.

Early to mid afternoon thunderstorm development remains most
likely across portions of northwest Arkansas, primarily east of
I-49, due to the closest proximity to the upper level disturbance
moving east-southeastward through central and eastern Missouri.
More scattered to numerous development near the aforementioned
boundary becomes more likely late afternoon and into the evening
across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. The timing
of this development is later than reflected in earlier forecasts,
with the higher POPs delayed until after 00Z. Locally damaging
winds remain the primary severe weather threat, although with the
expectation of a slight uptick in deep layer shear, the threat for
marginally severe hail will also exist. With precipitable water
values from 1.75 to 2 inches in much of the area, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms occur. At least scattered thunderstorms will persist
into early Sunday morning, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and
into west central Arkansas, although the chance for severe weather
should be decreased.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday
morning across areas along and south of I-40. Additional strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon in
areas near the Red River near a surface boundary and a slow moving
disturbance in the region. Across a good chunk of the area,
slightly cooler and drier conditions will move in Sunday, bringing
an end to the current stretch of heat and humidity. The need for
additional Heat Advisories on Sunday appears very low at this
time. Into Monday, low chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain focused near the Red River and near normal temperatures
will prevail during the afternoon. The overall details in the
weather pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week
remain somewhat uncertain, with the potent upper high centered
across the Northern Plains and easterly flow aloft across the
area. Given the position of the upper high, the area should remain
out of extreme heat for much of next week. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue, particularly during the
afternoons and in the more favored, higher terrain areas. Late in
the week and into next weekend, the upper level high looks to
shift to the south and west, putting the region in a more
favorable pattern for above normal temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Ongoing convection across nern OK and nwrn AR will impact those sites
for the first several hours into the forecast period. Mainly VFR CIGS
but IFR VSBY likely with the convection that impacts any site. The
convection is expected to gradually develop southward late evening
and overnight. Latest guidance supports MVFR VSBY late tonight most
sites in light fog with TSRA chances continuing into Sunday morning
MLC. VFR expected to return mid morning through the end of the
forecast period on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  71  92 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   75  93  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
MLC   75  93  72  93 /  60  30  20  20
BVO   70  90  68  90 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   69  90  67  89 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   67  89  66  88 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   72  90  71  91 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   69  90  68  90 /  20  10   0   0
F10   72  90  70  91 /  60  20  10  10
HHW   75  91  72  92 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062-
     064>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
859 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-130200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
859 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Along and North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue this evening over northeastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas. The atmosphere remains moderately unstable and
wind shear is weak, resulting in mostly disorganized, short-lived but
intense thunderstorms. Areas along and north of I-40 have the
highest chance of seeing severe weather through late evening, with
damaging winds to 70 mph the main threat. The shower and thunderstorm
axis will shift southward with time into southeast Oklahoma after
midnight tonight, although the potential for additional severe
weather is likely to have diminished. Locally heavy rain will be a
concern areawide through the overnight, with localized flooding
potential highest in areas that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the daylight hours on
Sunday, with additional afternoon development mainly near the Red
River possible. A low chance of severe weather will exist for this
area Sunday afternoon. Cooler and drier conditions will exist for
most of the area Sunday, extending into early next week, with
afternoon temperatures near seasonal normals. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances will persist each day, particularly during the
afternoon and focused in the higher terrain areas of southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A shift in the overall weather pattern
may lead to a return in above normal temperatures toward the latter
part of next week and into next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

OKZ060-061-067-120100-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
727 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Verdigris. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Claremore...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 231 and 245.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9586 3632 9577 3633 9563 3611 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 250DEG 4KT 3625 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
742 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Locust Grove        36.17N 95.17W
07/11/2026                   Mayes              OK   Trained Spotter

            trees across road; time estimated from
            radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
808 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Mazie                   36.10N 95.36W
07/11/2026  M66 MPH          Mayes              OK   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager measured 66mph gust at
            intersection of Highway 69 and 630 rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 WNW Westville         36.02N 94.65W
07/11/2026  M63 MPH          Adair              OK   Mesonet

            Measured gust at mesonet station.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
835 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

OKZ055-056-120200-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
835 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Ramona. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Washington
and southwestern Nowata Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 9570 3660 9572 3660 9581 3653 9581
      3651 9583 3657 9598 3670 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 214DEG 1KT 3658 9584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
905 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Broken Arrow      36.12N 95.83W
07/11/2026                   Tulsa              OK   Broadcast Media

            large tree down in yard; time estimated from
            radar.

&&