Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

 - Another round of potentially severe weather will occur south
   of I-40 this afternoon and evening.

 - Additional severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening.
   Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

 - Drier weather is expected to briefly return to the area Monday
   into Tuesday before an active pattern resumes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A west-to-east boundary is present across the middle of the forecast
area. It is in the process of merging a weak cold front from the
north with existing outflow from previous convection. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop near the
boundary. Daytime heating and somewhat deeper moisture will
result in a reinvigoration of storms mid to late afternoon south
of the boundary. Most CAMs agree that scattered supercell
formation is likely. Shear in the boundary layer looks relatively
low, and the boundary layer will have decent vertical depth, so
hail should dominate initially. Hail up to the size of tennis
balls may occur. With that said, isolated tornadoes and strong
wind remain possible. Over time, storms will consolidate into a
line as they move southeast, with wind and perhaps QLCS tornadoes
becoming more likely into the late evening. Wind gusts of up to 70
mph may occur.

Areas north of the boundary will see a partly sunny day with some
northerly breezes. Overnight, tonight temperatures will cool more
effectively than last night, with 50s expected for most spots. Rain
chances will be very low overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Saturday morning will see the old boundary surge back north as a
warm front. CAMs disagree on how far north it will go, but this is
critically important for identifying where the severe potential will
maximize. Currently the most likely corridor appears to be
somewhere between McAlester and Henryetta, angling east-southeast
into west- central Arkansas. But some guidance pushes this
corridor further north. Areas near and just north of the boundary
will see the best severe weather potential. CAMs are in
surprisingly good agreement on what will happen even if they
aren't sure where it will happen, which is multiple discrete right
moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, but very large
hail in particular. As typically occurs, these cells will favor
congealing into an MCS over time, with more of a wind and rain
threat later on.

Sunday will feature a very unstable and sheared atmosphere with the
dry line west of the area and warm sector overhead. The question
will be convective initiation. If storms can get going, the
atmosphere will support the potential for significant severe
weather. But as of now, some models show storm activity and some do
not. Those that do show it being most likely near the OK-KS-MO
triple point, and propagating south to southeast from there. This
will need to be watched closely, but ultimately likely depends on
what happens on Saturday. Monday will be warm with just a slight
chance of a few showers or storms before the cold front moves
through. The best chance of precipitation will be the higher terrain
in the eastern half of the forecast area.

Behind the front there will be a temporary reprieve from storm
activity, but rain chances will return to portions of the area by
Tuesday afternoon (mostly the southeast half of the forecast
area). Slight chances of showers and storms continue into
Wednesday and beyond. High temperatures will fall into the 70s
beyond the front with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A remnant outflow boundary is in the vicinity of KMLC while a weak
front sinks south across eastern OK but is getting hung up in the
terrain of northwest AR. The outflow is likely to be a focus for
convection through the afternoon and possibly (~30%) chance into
the evening. Have limited mention of thunder to KMLC and KFSM with
a low (<20%) chance showers get as far north as KFYV. Otherwise,
lingering post- frontal stratus is expected to scatter out after
21Z. A moist boundary layer and ground from last night's rain is
likely to contribute to another round of stratus overnight with
some fog also developing. For now have place IFR conditions where
highest confidence resides. While all sites could see MVFR/IFR
flight conditions at some time Saturday morning there is enough
spread in guidance to delay trying to lock in timing and location.
Winds will be northerly behind the front through the evening then
veer more easterly overnight before going light/variable in spots,
aiding in fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  62  81 /   0  50  70  30
FSM   60  82  63  83 /  40  40  80  30
MLC   59  83  63  83 /  30  60  70  20
BVO   53  78  58  80 /   0  50  50  40
FYV   54  81  59  79 /  30  30  70  40
BYV   55  76  59  76 /  30  10  50  40
MKO   56  78  61  80 /  20  50  70  30
MIO   54  78  58  77 /  10  20  50  50
F10   57  80  61  81 /  20  60  70  20
HHW   61  84  63  82 /  30  30  70  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-251800-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Overnight Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms will increase again this afternoon to the south
of a cold front. Some of the storms are expected to become severe.
The main severe hazard will likely be large to very large hail.
However, locally damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may occur.
Over time, wind may become the dominant threat towards the
evening. Areas of very heavy rain may occur leading to localized
flash flooding. Storm activity should diminish overnight. Patchy
fog may occur across much of the area into Saturday morning,
particularly for areas that saw heavy rain in the last day.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening. Large to very large hail is the most likely hazard, but
more isolated damaging wind and tornadoes are also possible. The
threat is more conditional Sunday, but if storms do develop, they
may become significantly severe. All severe modes would be on the
table. A cold front will move through Monday, with perhaps a brief
reprieve from storm activity. But storm chances are expected to
ramp up once again by later on Tuesday and into midweek.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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