Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

 - Strong to severe storms will develop north of I-40 this evening and
   tonight. Another round of potentially severe weather will
   occur near near and south of I-40 Friday afternoon and evening.

 - Additional storms are expected Saturday and Sunday. Some of
   these storms could become quite severe. Close monitoring is
   recommended.

 - Drier weather is expected Monday to Tuesday before thunderstorm
   chances increase yet again mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A dry line is slowly advancing east across western Oklahoma this
afternoon. The dry line is merging with an advancing front, coming
from the northwest, with the triple point across north-central
Oklahoma. So far, this has allowed for warm and moist southerly flow
to fill the forecast area with low clouds. There are signs that the
low clouds will begin to erode from west to east the next few hours,
with some warming into the late afternoon. This should push high
temperatures into the mid to upper 70s.

CAM guidance has gradually trended up with convective development
for this evening, with several recent HRRR runs showing scattered
storm development along the dry line. Any of these storms would have
the potential to become severe, but the highest chance will be
closer to the triple point. Accordingly, confidence is growing on at
least isolated coverage of severe storms this evening for the far
northwest portions of the forecast area. Given excellent shear,
instability, and low LCLs, all severe modes appear possible. The
window will only be a few hours, however, as the cold front will
catch up by late evening, with storms likely more confined to the
front into the overnight hours.

The initial hazards with the isolated storms will be higher end,
with tornadoes, hail, wind, and heavy rain all possible. With time
the threat is expected to shift towards strong gusty winds and heavy
rain, though hail and tornadoes cannot totally be ruled out either.
The threat for severe weather should wane by the late overnight
hours, but some storm activity will likely be ongoing through dawn
in northwest Arkansas. Low temperatures will be cooler in the north,
falling to the upper 50s to low 60s, with mid 60s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Storm activity will likely be ongoing Friday morning along and south
of the front, particularly in northwest Arkansas. There is some
uncertainty about how far south the front will go, and if it will
retreat north on Friday at all. But the general idea is that with
daytime heating strong to severe storms will reinvigorate near the
front, moving south into the evening. CAMs show plenty of potential
for severe storms once again, with hail likely the initial
threat, transitioning to main rain and wind over time.

There may be a short break into Saturday morning as the front surges
back north as a warm front. With continued upper level forcing and a
unstable/sheared environment storms will form later Saturday.
Model guidance is uncertain about many aspects of this system, but
the severe potential appears to be elevated given the environment
will be relatively high end. Sunday appears to have an even more
extreme convective environment, and anything that does get going
may become significantly severe. This would include the potential
for all severe modes, including strong tornadoes. However, the
question is whether we can overcome convective capping. This will
probably not be known with confidence until we see what actually
happens Saturday night, but it will need to be watched closely.

The cold front will end the storm threat Monday morning, with mild
and dry weather into Tuesday. Moist southerly flow will resume by
mid week, with the potential for storms to return by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Storms are
beginning to develop in north-central OK as of this writing.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
ahead of a cold front late this evening and into the overnight
hours as it pushes south and east through the night. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsbys and erratic wind gusts can be expected with the line
of storms. Adjusted precipitation timing some, but maintained much
of the previous forecast as is, with shower and storm chances
continuing at or around KFSM and KMLC beyond 18Z/1PM, near the
frontal boundary. MVFR cigs develop and increase over the AR
terminals overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Winds will
turn north or northeast behind the cold front Friday morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  79  57  81 /  80  30  10  30
FSM   65  79  60  84 /  70  90  30  20
MLC   67  81  60  83 /  60  70  30  20
BVO   56  78  52  81 /  90  20   0  30
FYV   61  76  55  81 /  80  80  20  20
BYV   61  75  57  79 /  80  80  20  10
MKO   63  76  58  81 /  70  60  20  20
MIO   60  76  55  80 /  90  30  10  20
F10   63  78  59  81 /  70  70  10  20
HHW   67  81  62  81 /  40  50  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-242200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
459 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of Interstate 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of northeast
OK after 7 PM this evening. These storms are conditional and may
not occur, but if they do they may result in tornadoes, large
hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. More widespread storm
activity will spread southeast with time, becoming more of a wind
and heavy rain threat with time. Storm activity will mostly remain
near and north of I-40 tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will persist Friday morning and through the day
near and south of I-40. Additional severe storms may develop in
the afternoon, with a mainly a severe wind and hail threat.
Another round of severe storms is possible late Saturday into
Sunday and then again later during the daytime Sunday. Any storms
on Sunday may become significantly severe, but due to a capping
inversion may also fail to develop at all. Storm activity will be
less Monday to Tuesday, but increase again mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>