Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

 - Gusty southerly winds to near advisory levels are expected
   this afternoon ahead of a cold front.

 - A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact northeast
   Oklahoma and possibly into northwest Arkansas tonight in
   association with a strong cold front. Locally heavy rainfall is
   possible across far northeast Oklahoma as well.

 - Gusty northerly winds to near advisory levels are expected
   overnight behind the front.

 - Cooler and drier weather is anticipated Saturday into early
   next week. A frost advisory may be needed for Sunday morning
   for portions of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The latest short-term guidance indicates potential for very gusty
southerly winds this afternoon ahead of an approaching front. This
is likely due to localized tightening or compression of the
gradient between a pre-frontal low and nearly stationary high
pressure to the southeast of the region. Spotty wind gusts to near
40 mph are possible. The gradient should relax as the front gets
closer, so the gust potential should be short-lived. Given
borderline, spotty and short-lived nature of the threat, a wind
headline will not be issued.

Latest surface analysis places a cold front from central KS down
into NW OK, and a dryline south from there roughly along the OK/TX
Panhandle border. Some agitated cu is observed on satellite near
the triple point. The HRRR has handled the frontal speed well so
far, and there are some indications that the portion of the front
dropping down into NW OK is slowing its southward progression
some, as it indicates. This is important, as any slowing of the
southward progression of the front would increase the severe
threat into northeast Oklahoma from storms that develop either
near the triple point or south along the dryline. The environment
south of the front is unstable and strongly sheared (westerly
0-6km shear 50+ knots). Low level (0-1km) shear will improve by
the time storms enter the forecast area from the west around 00Z
and onward. Thus, storms that move into NE OK from the west just
ahead of the front will have the potential to produce higher-end
severe weather (big hail, locally damaging wind and tornadoes
[either supercellular or evolving into QLCS variety]). The main
limiting factor for northeast Oklahoma will be the expected
acceleration of the front southward tonight. Once this occurs,
storms will tend be undercut given more ana-frontal movement of
the cells. Thus, the severe threat will be limited both temporally
and spatially because of the front. Areas north of I-44 stand the
greatest severe threat from this event, mainly in the 6 to 11 PM
timeframe. Some lingering severe threat may spread into far
northwest Arkansas around midnight depending on frontal location.
All of the guidance indicates that the severe threat wanes after
midnight as the front and band of storms associated with it
progress southeast. In fact, thunder coverage is expected to drop
off by 09Z early Saturday morning. Northerly winds may gust to
near advisory levels at times across eastern OK behind the front,
but no advisory is expected given marginal nature of threat.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across far northeast Oklahoma,
especially close to the KS border. There is a slight risk of
excessive rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Cooler and drier weather is on the way to start the weekend behind
the front. Due to the model blend (NBM) tendency to hold onto
PoPs too long, will trend toward a dry forecast sooner, i.e. early
Saturday morning. Afternoon highs will drop below average for
this time of year, back into the 60s.

Surface high pressure settles over the area Saturday night, under
mostly clear skies. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling
will allow overnight lows to dip into the 30s by Sunday morning
over a good portion of the area. A frost advisory may be needed as
we get closer.

A warming trend begins Sunday and will continue into early next
week as southerly winds return. A subtle disturbance embedded in
the west-southwest flow aloft ahead of another deep trough over
the western CONUS will bring storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.
Organized severe weather is not expected, however.

The deep western CONUS trough will begin to move into the Plains
by the end of next week. Expect storm and severe chances to
increase during this timeframe.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front
southeast across the area this evening and overnight, resulting in
reduced ceilings and visibilities. Gusty south winds ahead of the
front will become north and remain gusty following the frontal
passage. Gusty north winds will continue Saturday, with clearing
skies from northwest to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  64  40  74 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   54  67  40  74 /  90  20   0   0
MLC   52  65  37  73 /  90  10   0   0
BVO   45  64  35  74 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   48  63  33  71 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   48  61  38  70 / 100  20   0   0
MKO   49  63  38  72 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   45  61  37  71 / 100   0   0   0
F10   49  64  37  73 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   53  65  41  71 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-182245-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
537 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
An increasing severe weather threat will be seen into this
evening with mainly a damaging wind threat. Thunderstorms will
continue to develop along and near a cold front expected to move
into northeast Oklahoma by early evening, and then sweep
southeast through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through
the night. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat,
with some large hail possible early this evening near the Kansas
border. Brief, isolated tornadic spinups will also be possible
along the line of storms this evening in northeast Oklahoma. Storm
intensities are expected to decrease some late this evening and
overnight as the storms continue moving southeast into southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

In addition to the severe risk, locally heavy rainfall and a
limited risk of flash flooding will develop through late evening
as storms expand along the cold front. The heaviest rains are
expected to remain north of Interstate 40.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Breezy winds and cooler temperatures are forecast on Saturday.
A period of dry weather persists through early next week.
Thunderstorm chances return by mid to late next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
731 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 SW Burbank            36.62N 96.82W
04/17/2026  M66 MPH          Osage              OK   Mesonet

            Recorded by Burbank Mesonet Station.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
740 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     16 WSW Apperson         36.68N 97.04W
04/17/2026                   Osage              OK   Law Enforcement

            Victory Road completely blocked by fallen
            trees. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
753 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     16 WSW Apperson         36.68N 97.04W
04/17/2026                   Osage              OK   Law Enforcement

            Minor exterior and interior damage reported
            at Osage Casino. Possible tornado damage.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
755 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Burbank                 36.70N 96.73W
04/17/2026                   Osage              OK   Broadcast Media

            Media chaser showing tree damage in Burbank.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

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