Flood Watch 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
953 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 952 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday through
   Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main
   concerns.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Today)
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to overspread
much of ern OK and nwrn AR this morning ahead of upper low currently
centered over West Texas. PWAT over 2" across much of the region
resulting in locally heavy rainfall in the more persistent north-
south convective bands, and isolated flash flooding remains possible.
Increased QPF across much of the area with this morning's forecast
update.

Remainder of forecast elements trending well at this time, with data
continuing to suggest decreasing precipitation coverage and possibly
some breaks in the clouds sern OK late this afternoon. Forecast high
temps already reflect low diurnal variations today with widespread
clouds/precipitation, but a couple hours of cloud breaks late this
afternoon would allow temps to reach forecast highs in sern OK
(lower 80s). Most of the area will remain in the 70s today.

Deep layer shear is forecast to increase through this afternoon
across sern OK, and if we do get some breaks in the cloud cover for
a couple hours, conditions would support a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm generally south of I-40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A brief respite from the widespread rainfall may occur Saturday
evening before another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
overspreads the area later Saturday night and Sunday. The upper
low will continue to lift north northeast into eastern Nebraska by
Sunday afternoon, and conditions may become slightly more
favorable for a couple strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon to
go along with the threat of locally heavy rainfall.

As the upper low continues to lift away from the area Sunday night
into Monday, the rain will taper off and end from west to east,
and the heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge
builds over the southern plains during the first part of next
week. Afternoon highs in the 90s and dew points in the mid to
upper 70s will push afternoon heat index values to near or above
105 degrees in some places, with heat headlines likely to be
needed for much of next week.

A cold front may bring some relief from the heat by next weekend,
and possibly a few showers and storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Not a straight forward forecast today, with low clouds and weather
to contend with. Guidance is trending toward MVFR cigs
overspreading the region, along with showers and some storms. VFR
cigs should return this afternoon. Storm coverage is uncertain
owing to lots of cloud cover, so used prob30 groups for the most
part to convey thunder threat. Looks like a bit better shot at
KFSM, so an afternoon TEMPO was used there. There should be a
break at some point this evening and overnight before spotty
showers break out ahead of a low pressure system toward daybreak
Sunday. MVFR cigs should return as well.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  69  83  74 /  90  70  90  50
FSM   82  71  86  73 /  90  60  80  60
MLC   82  71  85  75 /  90  60  80  30
BVO   79  67  83  71 /  80  80  80  50
FYV   80  68  82  70 /  90  60  90  70
BYV   78  68  82  69 /  80  50  80  70
MKO   79  69  83  72 /  90  60  80  50
MIO   79  68  83  70 /  90  70  90  70
F10   80  68  84  73 / 100  60  90  30
HHW   81  71  84  73 /  90  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-070930-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
 	ONSET...This Morning.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the region today ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. Instability and shear will
increase enough by this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma to
support a few strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and hail are
the primary threats.

Slow-moving and training storms will have the potential to drop
swaths of locally heavy rainfall, especially across eastern
Oklahoma. This heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Strong to Severe Thunderstorm...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast across
eastern Oklahoma on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms will occur in
association with this feature. To the right of the track of the
low pressure, instability and shear will be sufficient for storms
to rotate. Thus, a weak tornado could develop from storms over
southeast Oklahoma or west-central Arkansas by Sunday afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding
is also a threat from the storms on Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances decrease next week with hot and humid
weather developing. Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105
degrees are expected across much the region for several days next
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.