Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday through
   Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main
   concerns.

 - Minor flooding forecast for Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through
   Sunday morning.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing late
this morning across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Creek and Tulsa counties have seen the heaviest rainfall this
morning, with MRMS estimates of 2 to 4 inches across a large part
of this area and rainfall continuing. The Bristow Mesonet
observation is approaching 6 inches of rain since midnight. The
localized heavy rainfall is leading to a rapid rise on Polecat
Creek near Sapulpa, with minor flooding currently forecast there
later today through tomorrow morning.

Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon,
primarily across portions of southeast Oklahoma where a higher
likelihood of seeing some breaks in the cloudiness exists. The
better chance of this appears to be just west of the forecast
area, however, given current satellite observations and recent
trends. Any storms in southeast Oklahoma would have potential for
isolated marginally severe hail and wind, although again, the
better potential for this is just west of the forecast area. The
existing activity and any additional development later today will
continue to push to the north and east into the evening and
overnight as the upper low currently spinning over the South Texas
Plains moves to the north and east. A relative lull in the
coverage will likely occur from mid to late evening into early
Sunday morning, with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms once again from west to east beginning just before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The immediate concern in the longer term is the increased
potential for flash flooding during the day Sunday, especially
given this morning/s rains. A Flood Watch has been posted from 12Z
Sunday to 00Z Monday for much of northeast Oklahoma. Localized
potential for 3 to 4 inches of rainfall will exist given what has
occurred today and 90th percentile NBM QPF also in this range. The
watch may need to be expanded south and eastward at a later time,
depending on how things evolve this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning, along
and west of Highway 75, having developed to the west and moved
eastward along with the aforementioned upper low Saturday night.
In addition to the heavy rain/flash flooding threat, a lower end
severe weather threat will also exist across much of the area
during the day and possibly, into the overnight. Given the
location of the upper low, this will include a tornado threat. The
showers and thunderstorm coverage will decrease from southwest to
northeast Sunday night and into Monday.

Early next week, upper level ridging builds into the area,
bringing fairly typical heat and humidity for this time of year to
the region. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will
exist Monday night near the Kansas and Missouri borders in
association with a disturbance moving along the periphery of the
ridge, but otherwise, a couple of days of dry weather looks
likely. Heat headlines look like a good bet during the period,
especially given the current rainfall and its likely impact on the
dew points.

Toward the latter part of the next week, an upper level trough in
the western United States will move toward the Northern and
Central Plains, which looks to bring a front into the area,
bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances and reduced
humidity to at least northern parts of the area Friday and
possibly into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move across all of
the sites this afternoon, with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities. Some improvement is possible ern OK sites later this
afternoon and across nwrn AR sites this evening. MVFR ceilings return
most areas tonight with areas of fog and scattered showers. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms expected to develop into the area
late tonight continuing into Sunday morning with continued aviation
impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  73  89 /  80  90  60  10
FSM   72  85  73  91 /  70  90  50  10
MLC   70  85  75  90 /  80  90  30   0
BVO   68  82  70  89 /  80  90  70  10
FYV   70  81  71  86 /  70  90  60  30
BYV   69  81  71  86 /  50  90  60  40
MKO   70  82  72  88 /  70  90  50  10
MIO   69  81  70  88 /  60  90  70  30
F10   70  83  74  89 /  80  90  30   0
HHW   71  84  74  90 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     OKZ055>067-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-072215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
501 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will persist across
most of the region this afternoon and evening. A couple of
stronger to possibly severe storms could develop and move into
portions of southeast Oklahoma this evening. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threat with any severe storm this
evening. The bigger impact will come from locally heavy rainfall
with rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour likely in the
heavier downpours. Some flooding is already ongoing across eastern
Oklahoma and more area of flash flooding or creek flooding will be
possible through the evening. A break in activity should move into
the region overnight tonight before more storms approach the area
early tomorrow morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing at daybreak Sunday, with an increasing threat for heavy
rain and flooding focused across northeast Oklahoma. A Flood Watch
is in effect through early Sunday evening. Conditions support a
low chance for severe weather across parts of the area during the
day Sunday, including a very low but nonzero chance for
tornadoes. The overall potential for thunderstorms is expected to
shift to the north and east into Sunday night and Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will develop early next week and continue
into the early part of the weekend for some areas. Widespread
triple digit heat index values should be expected, with heat
headlines likely to be necessary during the period.

A front looks to move into parts of the area late in the week,
bringing additional thunderstorm chances and possibly bringing
less humid conditions to northern areas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

OKZ070-071-061815-
Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
southwest of Warner, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Warner...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 267 and
280.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 9541 3552 9520 3532 9534 3538 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 205DEG 14KT 3542 9537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
144 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     Flash Flood      6 SW Kellyville         35.89N 96.30W
06/06/2026                   Creek              OK   Emergency Mngr

            Portions of several county roads have been
            washed out between Bristow and Kellyville.

&&

EJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

OKZ060-064-061945-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-
156 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND CENTRAL
TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 155 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
west of Kiefer, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Kiefer...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Jenks Riverside Airport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 202 and 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9605 3589 9628 3616 9617 3616 9601
      3608 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 207DEG 17KT 3593 9614

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     Flash Flood      5 W Sand Springs        36.14N 96.20W
06/06/2026                   Tulsa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Dewar               35.46N 95.92W
06/06/2026                   Okmulgee           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a road washed out in the area of
            Hackberry Road and 250 Road east of Dewar.

0345 PM     Flash Flood      1 W Sapulpa             36.00N 96.13W
06/06/2026                   Creek              OK   Public

            Considerable flooding at the Tee Pee
            Drive-In on the west side of Sapulpa.
            Parking lot is completely underwater.

&&