Tornado Warning 51, NWS Topeka, KS

668 
WWUS53 KTOP 090241 RRA
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
941 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSC041-090315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260609T0315Z/
Dickinson-
941 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

At 941 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles northwest of Carlton, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9737 3878 9717 3866 9730 3867 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 297DEG 6KT 3875 9733 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Flanagan

748 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
951 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSC041-090315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260609T0315Z/
Dickinson-
951 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

At 951 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Carlton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9737 3878 9717 3866 9730 3867 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 290DEG 21KT 3872 9726 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Flanagan

566 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
956 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSC041-090305-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260609T0315Z/
Dickinson-
956 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  However,
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9737 3878 9717 3866 9730 3867 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 300DEG 9KT 3871 9725 

$$

Flanagan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is increasing in severe storms moving across the area
this evening, with the highest threat towards north central KS.
Damaging wind is the main hazard, along with large hail and a
tornado or two.

- Heavy rainfall with localized flooding is also possible, so a
Flood Watch has been issued for this evening and overnight.

- Hot and humid conditions take shape Tuesday. Heat Advisory has
been expanded area-wide.

- Additional storm chances come later this week, particularly
Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Large-scale pattern via water vapor imagery shows broad troughing
across the western CONUS with one shortwave now moving well north
into Canada and another shortwave trough axis off the Pacific coast.
Surface low pressure is located near the TX/OK panhandles and
southwest KS, with a warm front extending out of that across our
area north of the I-70 corridor. An outflow boundary is noted via
visible satellite near the KS/NE border into south central NE. Ahead
of these boundaries, a very moist and unstable air mass is in place
across our area with 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE and dew points in the
low/mid 70s.

By early this evening, there looks to be just enough sfc convergence
near the center of the low towards central KS as well as in the
aforementioned area along the KS/NE border. This would initially
allow for a few discrete supercells to develop before they congeal
into a line later this evening. As mentioned earlier, we have plenty
of instability, and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts would support a
damaging wind and large hail threat. Additionally, backed sfc winds
result in veering low-level winds with 0-3km shear around 30 kts, so
there is a reasonable tornado risk with initial discrete cells as
well. CAMs this morning have been consistent in these cells evolving
into an MCS, resulting in damaging wind becoming the primary severe
weather threat with time. If storms are progressive enough in
nature, flooding could be less of an issue, but if they turn into
more of an east-west oriented line with training (as indicated in
some of the morning CAM guidance as well), this would present a
bigger flooding threat. In any case, Pwat looks to approach or
exceed 2 inches, which is even higher than it has been in recent
days. HREF mean has a swath of QPF amounts between 1-1.5", which
seems like a reasonable average for most locations. However, 90th
percentile has a swath of 2-4" along the I-70 corridor with
individual HREF members showing isolated pockets of locally higher
amounts than that. The HREF also has a signal for rainfall rates at
least an inch per hour along and south of I-70 this evening. With
this in mind along, decided to go ahead with a Flood Watch given
that much of the CWA is sensitive to high rainfall rates with the
recent heavy rain in the area.

Storms should move out of the area before sunrise Tuesday, leaving a
hot and muggy air mass in place for the day. Portions of the area
are more on the marginal side for a Heat Advisory, but considering
this is the first one of the year, decided to expand the advisory to
include the entire area with most places likely reaching heat
indices around 105, even if only a few degrees short.

Most rain west of the area looks to dissipate before it reaches much
of our area, with the exception of perhaps our far western counties
in the evening. The next best chance for storms comes Wednesday
afternoon and evening with an approaching cold front, which could
present another risk for severe storms. That front pushes east into
Thursday, with lower storm chances lingering in far eastern KS that
afternoon. Wednesday may bring another day of heat indices around
105 degrees for portions of the area, but this looks to be less
widespread compared to Tuesday. From there, temperatures cool down
later in the week behind the cold front with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Guidance from 12Z CAMs has been consistent on maintaining a cluster
of storms moving in from northwest and north central KS this
evening. Have gone with a 3-hour window for TS as a best first
guess, although timing adjustments may be needed. Otherwise, expect
MVFR cigs this afternoon to eventually lift to VFR later this
afternoon. South winds pick up above 10 kts toward the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms this evening. Damaging
winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall are all
possible.

A Flood Watch has been issued from 7 PM this evening into the
overnight hours. A quick inch or two of rain is probable, although
localized amounts up to 2 to 4 inches with high rainfall rates
could lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A heat advisory has been posted for the entire area Tuesday from
noon until 9pm. Heat indices are forecast to be around 105
degrees. Avoid strenuous outdoor activity Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

There is a 40 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of northeast and east central
Kansas. If storms develop, they could become severe with large
hail, damaging winds and heavy rain potential hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Minneapolis             39.12N 97.71W
06/08/2026                   Ottawa             KS   Storm Chaser

            Power lines downed and power outage in
            Minneapolis, KS.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
853 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Hail             1 W Solomon             38.92N 97.37W
06/08/2026  M1.75 Inch       Dickinson          KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
900 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tescott                 39.01N 97.88W
06/08/2026                   Ottawa             KS   Public

            Large trees blown down. Estimated 80 MPH
            winds.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
928 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 SSE Solomon           38.83N 97.34W
06/08/2026  M70 MPH          Dickinson          KS   Emergency Mngr

&&