Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is increasing in severe storms moving across the area
this evening, with the highest threat towards north central KS.
Damaging wind is the main hazard, along with large hail and a
tornado or two.

- Heavy rainfall with localized flooding is also possible, so a
Flood Watch has been issued for this evening and overnight.

- Hot and humid conditions take shape Tuesday. Heat Advisory has
been expanded area-wide.

- Additional storm chances come later this week, particularly
Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Large-scale pattern via water vapor imagery shows broad troughing
across the western CONUS with one shortwave now moving well north
into Canada and another shortwave trough axis off the Pacific coast.
Surface low pressure is located near the TX/OK panhandles and
southwest KS, with a warm front extending out of that across our
area north of the I-70 corridor. An outflow boundary is noted via
visible satellite near the KS/NE border into south central NE. Ahead
of these boundaries, a very moist and unstable air mass is in place
across our area with 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE and dew points in the
low/mid 70s.

By early this evening, there looks to be just enough sfc convergence
near the center of the low towards central KS as well as in the
aforementioned area along the KS/NE border. This would initially
allow for a few discrete supercells to develop before they congeal
into a line later this evening. As mentioned earlier, we have plenty
of instability, and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts would support a
damaging wind and large hail threat. Additionally, backed sfc winds
result in veering low-level winds with 0-3km shear around 30 kts, so
there is a reasonable tornado risk with initial discrete cells as
well. CAMs this morning have been consistent in these cells evolving
into an MCS, resulting in damaging wind becoming the primary severe
weather threat with time. If storms are progressive enough in
nature, flooding could be less of an issue, but if they turn into
more of an east-west oriented line with training (as indicated in
some of the morning CAM guidance as well), this would present a
bigger flooding threat. In any case, Pwat looks to approach or
exceed 2 inches, which is even higher than it has been in recent
days. HREF mean has a swath of QPF amounts between 1-1.5", which
seems like a reasonable average for most locations. However, 90th
percentile has a swath of 2-4" along the I-70 corridor with
individual HREF members showing isolated pockets of locally higher
amounts than that. The HREF also has a signal for rainfall rates at
least an inch per hour along and south of I-70 this evening. With
this in mind along, decided to go ahead with a Flood Watch given
that much of the CWA is sensitive to high rainfall rates with the
recent heavy rain in the area.

Storms should move out of the area before sunrise Tuesday, leaving a
hot and muggy air mass in place for the day. Portions of the area
are more on the marginal side for a Heat Advisory, but considering
this is the first one of the year, decided to expand the advisory to
include the entire area with most places likely reaching heat
indices around 105, even if only a few degrees short.

Most rain west of the area looks to dissipate before it reaches much
of our area, with the exception of perhaps our far western counties
in the evening. The next best chance for storms comes Wednesday
afternoon and evening with an approaching cold front, which could
present another risk for severe storms. That front pushes east into
Thursday, with lower storm chances lingering in far eastern KS that
afternoon. Wednesday may bring another day of heat indices around
105 degrees for portions of the area, but this looks to be less
widespread compared to Tuesday. From there, temperatures cool down
later in the week behind the cold front with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The bowing segment will exit the terminals shortly. CAMs show some
scattered showers lingering for a few more hours. The precip is
expected to be completed by 10Z or 11Z with VFR conditions through
the day Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms this evening. Damaging
winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall are all
possible.

A Flood Watch has been issued from 7 PM this evening into the
overnight hours. A quick inch or two of rain is probable, although
localized amounts up to 2 to 4 inches with high rainfall rates
could lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A heat advisory has been posted for the entire area Tuesday from
noon until 9pm. Heat indices are forecast to be around 105
degrees. Avoid strenuous outdoor activity Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

There is a 40 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of northeast and east central
Kansas. If storms develop, they could become severe with large
hail, damaging winds and heavy rain potential hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Berryton          38.93N 95.65W
06/08/2026  M62 MPH          Shawnee            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KFOE Topeka Forbes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Berryton          38.93N 95.65W
06/09/2026  M66 MPH          Shawnee            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KFOE Topeka Forbes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
107 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Lawrence           38.99N 95.23W
06/09/2026                   Douglas            KS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down across roadways and power lines
            down in north Lawrence. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
110 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Tecumseh          39.02N 95.60W
06/09/2026                   Shawnee            KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            A tree fell on a house, power lines down
            with tree limbs on them.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
114 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     Flash Flood      Topeka                  39.05N 95.68W
06/09/2026                   Shawnee            KS   Emergency Mngr

            EM report: Water rescue at 6th and Polk for
            multiple people stuck in vehicles with
            rising floodwater.

&&

ng