Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

955 
WGUS53 KTOP 090859 RRE
FFWTOP
KSC143-091200-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260609T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Topeka KS
359 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The National Weather Service in Topeka has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Ottawa County in north central Kansas...

* Until 700 AM CDT.

* At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 
  0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding 
  is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bennington, Tescott, Culver and Niles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9737 3896 9737 3896 9741 3896 9743
      3896 9749 3896 9760 3896 9764 3896 9780
      3896 9793 3899 9793 3900 9793 3912 9793
      3907 9737

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

101

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WGUS73 KTOP 091131 RRE
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

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/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260609T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ottawa KS-
631 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

This Warning has been replaced by an Areal Flood Warning Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for portions of 
central, east central, north central, and northeast Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9737 3896 9737 3896 9741 3896 9743
      3896 9749 3896 9760 3896 9764 3896 9780
      3896 9793 3899 9793 3900 9793 3912 9793
      3907 9737

$$

101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is increasing in severe storms moving across the area
this evening, with the highest threat towards north central KS.
Damaging wind is the main hazard, along with large hail and a
tornado or two.

- Heavy rainfall with localized flooding is also possible, so a
Flood Watch has been issued for this evening and overnight.

- Hot and humid conditions take shape Tuesday. Heat Advisory has
been expanded area-wide.

- Additional storm chances come later this week, particularly
Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Large-scale pattern via water vapor imagery shows broad troughing
across the western CONUS with one shortwave now moving well north
into Canada and another shortwave trough axis off the Pacific coast.
Surface low pressure is located near the TX/OK panhandles and
southwest KS, with a warm front extending out of that across our
area north of the I-70 corridor. An outflow boundary is noted via
visible satellite near the KS/NE border into south central NE. Ahead
of these boundaries, a very moist and unstable air mass is in place
across our area with 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE and dew points in the
low/mid 70s.

By early this evening, there looks to be just enough sfc convergence
near the center of the low towards central KS as well as in the
aforementioned area along the KS/NE border. This would initially
allow for a few discrete supercells to develop before they congeal
into a line later this evening. As mentioned earlier, we have plenty
of instability, and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts would support a
damaging wind and large hail threat. Additionally, backed sfc winds
result in veering low-level winds with 0-3km shear around 30 kts, so
there is a reasonable tornado risk with initial discrete cells as
well. CAMs this morning have been consistent in these cells evolving
into an MCS, resulting in damaging wind becoming the primary severe
weather threat with time. If storms are progressive enough in
nature, flooding could be less of an issue, but if they turn into
more of an east-west oriented line with training (as indicated in
some of the morning CAM guidance as well), this would present a
bigger flooding threat. In any case, Pwat looks to approach or
exceed 2 inches, which is even higher than it has been in recent
days. HREF mean has a swath of QPF amounts between 1-1.5", which
seems like a reasonable average for most locations. However, 90th
percentile has a swath of 2-4" along the I-70 corridor with
individual HREF members showing isolated pockets of locally higher
amounts than that. The HREF also has a signal for rainfall rates at
least an inch per hour along and south of I-70 this evening. With
this in mind along, decided to go ahead with a Flood Watch given
that much of the CWA is sensitive to high rainfall rates with the
recent heavy rain in the area.

Storms should move out of the area before sunrise Tuesday, leaving a
hot and muggy air mass in place for the day. Portions of the area
are more on the marginal side for a Heat Advisory, but considering
this is the first one of the year, decided to expand the advisory to
include the entire area with most places likely reaching heat
indices around 105, even if only a few degrees short.

Most rain west of the area looks to dissipate before it reaches much
of our area, with the exception of perhaps our far western counties
in the evening. The next best chance for storms comes Wednesday
afternoon and evening with an approaching cold front, which could
present another risk for severe storms. That front pushes east into
Thursday, with lower storm chances lingering in far eastern KS that
afternoon. Wednesday may bring another day of heat indices around
105 degrees for portions of the area, but this looks to be less
widespread compared to Tuesday. From there, temperatures cool down
later in the week behind the cold front with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Guidance from 12Z CAMs has been consistent on maintaining a cluster
of storms moving in from northwest and north central KS this
evening. Have gone with a 3-hour window for TS as a best first
guess, although timing adjustments may be needed. Otherwise, expect
MVFR cigs this afternoon to eventually lift to VFR later this
afternoon. South winds pick up above 10 kts toward the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms this evening. Damaging
winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall are all
possible.

A Flood Watch has been issued from 7 PM this evening into the
overnight hours. A quick inch or two of rain is probable, although
localized amounts up to 2 to 4 inches with high rainfall rates
could lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A heat advisory has been posted for the entire area Tuesday from
noon until 9pm. Heat indices are forecast to be around 105
degrees. Avoid strenuous outdoor activity Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

There is a 40 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening across parts of northeast and east central
Kansas. If storms develop, they could become severe with large
hail, damaging winds and heavy rain potential hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chapman                 38.97N 97.02W
06/08/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Trained Spotter

            Tree and powerline down with pictures.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1123 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Junction City      39.05N 96.86W
06/08/2026  M61 MPH          Geary              KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Eskridge                38.86N 96.10W
06/08/2026  M61 MPH          Wabaunsee          KS   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Melvern                 38.51N 95.64W
06/08/2026  E75 MPH          Osage              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Estimated wind gusts 70-80 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1157 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Dover              38.99N 95.97W
06/08/2026  E60 MPH          Wabaunsee          KS   Trained Spotter

            Estimated wind gusts 60-65 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SE Alma               38.97N 96.21W
06/08/2026  M65 MPH          Wabaunsee          KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station ALMKU Alma 5SE.

&&