River Flood Warning 42, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to develop across northeast into central KS
this afternoon and early evening, some of which could be severe.
Large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall are
all possible.

- A few storms may develop Thursday afternoon southeast of I-35,
although that probability is decreasing (20-40%).

- Dry Friday, then turning wet again on Saturday. Temperatures look
cooler late this week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Broad cyclonic flow encompasses the Northern/Central Rockies and
Plains early this afternoon. One area of sfc low pressure is noted
in southeast CO extending into southwest KS, while another is
centered in western MN with a cold front extending into eastern NE.
On the mesoscale, there are two main areas to monitor for convective
initiation this afternoon. An outflow boundary from morning
convection in northern MO may help to focus the first storms in
northwest MO and far northeast KS. Additionally, convergence along
the sfc trough boundary may help to develop a few storms towards
central KS. Our area is right in between these two features. The 18z
RAOB had a little bit of MLCIN remaining with not much more surface
heating required to erode the cap. SPC mesoanalysis suggests 3000-
3500 J/kg of MLCAPE currently, with models suggesting 4000-4500 J/kg
with another hour or two of surface heating. Deep-layer shear is
sufficient for supercells as well. One challenge that remains is how
long any storms may remain discrete before cell interactions come
into play. There is a component of shear vectors that's parallel to
the boundaries, but not entirely. More recent HRRR runs have shown
better directional shear in the low levels with a more southerly sfc
wind compared to earlier, resulting in better low-level shear this
afternoon as well. As such, tornadoes will remain a potential threat
with any storms as long as they remain discrete. Large hail and
damaging wind continue to be the main severe hazards with either
supercells or multicell clusters after storms interact with each
other. Pwat remains high, so these storms should be efficient
rainfall producers with heavy downpours. 12z CAMs and HRRR runs
thereafter have been fairly consistent in only isolated areas seeing
amounts greater than an inch, and the 90th percentile of the HREF
supports this idea as well. With this in mind, would not rule out
some localized flooding if a storm stays over the same area for a
long time, but think this threat looks too isolated to support a
flood watch across a large area.

Storms should diminish towards/after sunset as inhibition increases
and the sfc low to our southwest deepens, which pushes the sfc
boundaries to our north. A second round of storms is favored to
remain north of our area in Nebraska, which is where the better
forcing is with the nose of the LLJ and approaching cold front.
Heading into Thursday, the frontal boundary moves across the area
and has been trending faster. Much of the guidance now has this
almost entirely through our area by 21z Thursday. This presents a
low probability for storms to develop southeast of I-35 in the
afternoon, though some guidance suggests we may miss this round
entirely.

Friday brings a drier and cooler air mass, leading to a quieter day
with highs in the 80s and sfc high pressure overhead. This is short-
lived, however, as southerly low-level flow returns moisture into
the area with zonal flow aloft as we sit between ridging to our
south and troughing to our north. A mid-level perturbation should
trigger another round of showers and storms during the afternoon and
evening. The exact area of greatest risk will depend on where the
sfc frontal boundary sets up, but will need to monitor once again
for flooding concerns with high Pwat and potential for severe
weather. The boundary looks to sag south for Sunday, lowering rain
chances but still keeping the baroclinic zone close enough to
justify some chance PoPs for the area.

Northwest flow aloft takes shape early next week. While rain chances
are less certain, this should usher in a much cooler and drier air
mass than we've seen recently, bringing highs down into the 70s and
dew points in the 50s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Storms have developed just northwest of MHK, so will maintain timing
of TS there, but have adjusted timing to be about an hour later at
TOP/FOE based on current radar and satellite trends. Otherwise,
expect southerly winds to increase overnight and remain gusty
through the day Thursday. A cold front will switch winds to the
northwest around midday. VFR conditions are expected outside of any
impacts from TS this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe weather this afternoon into
the early evening. Large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes, and
locally heavy rainfall are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Locations southeast of Interstate 35 may see thunderstorms late
Thursday afternoon. If they occur, large hail, damaging wind, and
localized flooding are the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report large hail, damaging winds,
tornadoes, and flooding to the National Weather Service in
Topeka.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
728 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     Hail             3 NE Abilene            38.94N 97.17W
06/10/2026  M1.25 Inch       Dickinson          KS   Trained Spotter

            Very heavy rain.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
736 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 SSW Enterprise        38.87N 97.14W
06/10/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Public

&&

BD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
750 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Moonlight         38.98N 97.11W
06/10/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Trained Spotter

            Water completely covering several spots on
            the road.

&&

BD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
817 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 WNW Woodbine          38.81N 97.00W
06/10/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Trained Spotter

&&

BD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
822 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tornado          3 NNE Herington         38.71N 96.93W
06/10/2026                   Morris             KS   Trained Spotter

            Confirmed via video feed on highway 77 and
            K4 junction.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
824 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     Tornado          4 NNW Herington         38.72N 96.96W
06/10/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

BD