Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
637 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After 2-4 inches of rain on Wednesday, residual flooding is
  expected to linger in portions of the Ozarks through the day,
  with an Areal Flood Warning in effect for the affected
  corridor until 1 PM. Minor flooding is also ongoing in small
  tributaries and in the Little Osage and Spring River basins.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm development possible late
  this morning into early afternoon, especially in south-central
  Missouri. If storms can develop, there would be a chance of
  severe hail and damaging winds, but any risk would be
  conditional on the development of thunderstorms.

- Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced
  (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the
  afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into
  early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible,
  but widespread damaging winds in excess of 70-80+ mph will be
  the primary severe hazard as a squall line with several bowing
  segments develops along the cold front.

- Excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that
  see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:
The remnants of Wednesday evening's showers and thunderstorms
are pushing to the east, carried by the low-level jet streak. An
upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low are
lifting across the Great Lakes region; another shortwave trough
across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning will
bring modest height falls to the region into the mid-afternoon
before assimilating into the flow across the Great Lakes.
Upstream, a deepening trough with a closed low aloft is
approaching from the Pacific Northwest. Yesterday's convection
brought 2-4" of rainfall to a corridor of the forecast area,
where flash flooding occurred and/or is still occurring, and an
Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for much of that area
until 1 PM this afternoon.

Showers & Thunderstorms Today:
It's far from a slam dunk, but many CAMs indicate that
additional shower and thunderstorm development may occur again
this afternoon in south-central Missouri. 2500-3000 J/kg of
SBCAPE builds by 18-19Z, when the cap becomes eroded. The
ingredients for a similar setup to yesterday will all largely
come together slightly further east in the eastern Ozarks, with
the exception of an obvious forcing mechanism.

Low-level ridging slowly builds through the day, which would
imply subsidence, but the 500mb/250mb waves in the Panhandles
will lift northeast across the area through the morning and
early afternoon, with the associated vort maxes creating
divergence aloft. The last bits of convection are likely so
weak that there won't be any residual cold pool/outflow strong
enough to trigger anything, but widespread cloud cover will exit
the area with the showers, allowing 0-3km lapse rates to
approach 8C/km as the surface warms. High temperatures this
afternoon are in the 77-83F range, and convective temperatures
around 76-78F suggest simple differential heating may be enough
to get something going. 30-40kts of bulk shear and straight
hodographs suggest that if storms do develop, conditions will be
sufficient for severe hail with splitting storms and/or
multicell clusters.

The window for these storms to develop would be relatively
short, between 18-22Z by most model consensus. By 23-00Z this
evening, the upper-level support has moved east of the area,
ending the window for severe storm development. HREF
neighborhood probabilities of severe hail have a bullseye of
5-14% in areas east of Highway 65 and south of I-44. A broader
area of 5-14% chances of severe wind remain confined to areas
east of Highway 65 but extend north of I-44 into central
Missouri, though a small bullseye of 15-29% probs of severe wind
develop in our far southeast corner (Oregon County) and extend
into northeast Arkansas. The REFS probabilities also show 5-14%
chances of severe hail and wind in south-central Missouri during
the same window (1PM - 5PM), further substantiating that the
risk exists if a storm can develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Friday remains on track to be an active severe weather day. The
synoptic trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest ejects
into the Central Plains and overspreads a plume of warm, dry
air (700-500mb lapse rates 8-9C/km). HREF mean SBCAPE exceeds
3000 J/kg, so ample instability will be in place by the early
afternoon for supercell development. The cold front plunges
south through the Northern Plains during the day on Friday,
which appears to keep the most volatile severe environment to
our north, but our environment will still be quite juicy for the
storms to tap into when they arrive with the cold front. An
additional, lower-confidence scenario includes discrete
supercells popping up within the warm sector ahead of the cold
frontal passage.

Expected evolution at this time appears to be a low chance for
discrete supercells across the area in the afternoon hours,
before the cold front reaches our northern edge counties in the
late afternoon/early evening hours. While supercells could
support large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds,
our primary severe risk will be with the cold frontal passage.
CAMs are in good agreement that with 50-90kts of bulk shear, the
storms that develop along the cold front will nearly immediately
turn into a line, with numerous embedded bowing segments.
Supercells ahead of the line could locally enhance sfc vorticity
as they get overtaken by the accelerating squall line, leading
to areas of increased embedded tornado potential. Several CAMs
also suggest that our northwesternmost counties will have a
short window of locally higher tornado chances around nightfall
as the low-level jet kicks in and more curved hodographs overlap
in time and space with 100+ J/kg of 0-3km CAPE ahead of the
front along the low-level theta-e gradient.

Now that we've gotten the tornado talk out of the way, I would
like to be clear that damaging winds are by FAR the most likely
severe hazard on Friday evening. Winds in excess of 80 mph will
be possible along the apex of any accelerating bowing segments
that develop along the front. Not everywhere should expect to
see winds that high, but wide swaths of 60+ mph winds is a
realistic expectation to set.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Mostly clear skies with some patches of MVFR stratus near the
Arkansas border to start the period. A few light showers have
popped up near the OK/MO border, which could briefly bring MVFR
ceilings and a brief period of light rain within the next 1-3
hours. Otherwise, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances
appear to stay east of TAF sites, though scattered convection
will be possible across the Ozarks.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
458 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
458 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Marginal hail risk.
Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rainfall has ended, but 1 to 4 inches of rain have fallen
over the last 24 hours, which caused flash flooding across a
narrow corridor of southern Missouri. Residual areal flooding will
continue through today. Water is rising across area waterways,
especially small tributaries and the Little Osage and Spring
Rivers, which are rising into minor flood stage.

There is a short window for a few scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, especially in areas east of Highway
65 that are south of I-44. The primary hazard would be hail to the
size of golf balls, with a secondary damaging wind risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced (level
3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and
continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday
morning.

All modes of severe weather possible, but widespread damaging
winds in excess of 70-80+ mph will be the primary severe hazard as
a squall line with several bowing segments develops along the
cold front.

Flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Camden

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
516 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 AM     Flood            4 SSW Richland          37.80N 92.43W
04/16/2026                   Laclede            MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway FF is closed due to flooding.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 AM     Flood            2 WSW Boston            37.40N 94.31W
04/16/2026                   Barton             MO   911 Call Center

            State Highway 126 is flooded just west of
            Interstate 49.

&&

MB

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