Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
136 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe convection this afternoon with large hail and
  damaging wind the main severe weather risks. This is expected
  mainly over south central Missouri through the late afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced
  (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the
  afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into
  early Saturday morning.

- Excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that
  see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show a shortwave currently pushing over
western Missouri and interacting with low/mid level moisture and
increased instability for scattered convection over the eastern
CWA. Morning soundings and CAM forecast soundings are favorable
for hail development with this convection and have had a few
severe warnings for this already. Another strong upper low and
jet streak were moving east across the northern and central
great basin region eastward into the northern and central
Rockies. West-southwest flow aloft was occurring ahead of this
feature west of the previously mentioned shortwave over western
MO.

This afternoon into tonight: CAMS are indicating the scattered
strong to severe convection over the eastern Ozarks lingering
through the afternoon before exiting the region to the
east/southeast. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up
to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. The
remainder of the night should generally be free of storms with
the shortwave passing to the east.

Friday-Friday night: Things are coming together for another
round of severe storms late Friday into Friday night. The large
scale trough will shift east into the plains during the day
Friday and gusty low level winds will draw Gulf moisture back
into the area ahead of the surface front and upper wave.
Instability will be increasing throughout the day. By late
afternoon surface based CAPES from 1500-2500 j/kg develop along
and ahead of the front with 0-6km shear of 35-45kts over our
western CWA. CAMS are showing the potential for some supercell
activity out ahead of the front in the western CWA and west of
the CWA prior to a squall line developing and pushing through
the area during the evening into the overnight hours. Shear
increases significantly during the evening with curved
hodographs and helicity values getting over 300-400. All modes
of severe storms will be possible, especially early in the
evolution. When the squall line moves through the primary severe
risk will become damaging wind with the potential remaining for
embedded spin up tornadoes within the squall line. In addition
to the severe storm potential, heavy rain will accompany the
storms, on top of what the area received yesterday and last
night which may lead to a flooding risk, especially if storms
train across the same locations.

Saturday: The front should be through most if not all of the CWA
by 12z Saturday morning with a few remaining showers possible
early in the morning. A cooler and drier air mass will then move
in behind the front throughout the day on Saturday with highs
from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Cold temperatures Saturday night: The high pressure system at
the surface will be over the area with a dry air mass in place.
Temperatures are expected to dip into the mid 30s for lows with
25th-75th percentile temperatures ranging from the low to upper
30s. Will need to continue monitoring this for a minor frost
potential.

Sunday-Wednesday: Expecting generally dry conditions through the
period with a warming trend back into the 70s for highs by
Monday and lows back in the 50s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

For the 18z TAFS, convection has developed late this morning
east of SGF to north of BBG. CAMS are generally keeping this
activity east of the TAF sites for now and not enough
probability to mention in a prob30 at this time for any of the
TAF sites. We do have widespread MVFR conditions with the lower
ceilings over the area and have this continuing through the
afternoon. Should become VFR this evening. Friday morning, we'll
start to see winds increase with some gusts up to 25 kts around
14-15z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
208 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
208 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will remain possible this afternoon into
the early evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main severe weather
risks, with the main focus for severe storms east of highway 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced (level
3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and
continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday
morning.

All modes of severe weather possible, but widespread damaging
winds in excess of 70-80+ mph will be the primary severe hazard
as a squall line with several bowing segments develops along the
cold front.

Flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, however
reports of hail and damaging wind with the storms that develop are
welcome.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     Hail             Iberia                  38.09N 92.30W
04/16/2026  M1.25 Inch       Miller             MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

TG

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