Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
736 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch #247 in effect until 9PM for WV/VA
primarily east of I-77, all the way to the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms this afternoon and evening with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have been ongoing
across parts of the forecast area through this evening. There
have been reports of downed trees, and the storms have been
efficient rain producers. The threat for thunderstorms continues
for a few more hours, and the current severe thunderstorm watch
expires at 9 PM. Strong to severe gusts capable of producing
wind damage are the primary hazard, but isolated hail may also
occur.

30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will promote relatively fast
moving storm cells this afternoon and evening. Upper short wave
trough over the Ohio Valley along with east-west oriented front
across the northern Mid-Atlantic will serve as a focus for
organized storm development. In addition, expecting isolated to
scattered storms to develop along the Blue Ridge... all activity
moving east as we progress through the evening.

Moderate instability (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg) is being forecast across
the northern part of our CWA coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly
deep-layer shear. This should support a mix of multicells and
marginal supercell structures is anticipated along/south of the
front, with scattered damaging winds the main severe risk. Some
hail could also occur with the strongest cores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will wane by midnight or so,
but expecting fog to develop for a few hours Thursday morning.
Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm Thursday afternoon.
High pressure builds in behind the front as it drops to the
south to bring dry and quiet weather to end the work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

Rain has been plentiful the last seven days. With precipitable
water (PWAT) values AOA 1.50 any deep convection will be rain
efficient promoting rain rates of 2-4". Organized storms will
have the best chance to produce excessive rainfall, so be on the
lookout for localized flash flooding. Given the relatively fast
storm cell movement, expecting somewhat lower residence time of
the heavy rain cores, so unless we have training cells, rainfall
totals should generally be held under an inch. That said, high
rain rates can still quickly translate into rapid runoff and
localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorm activity from this afternoon will
continue for a few more hours, and then transition to isolated
showers, as the area loses daytime heating and instability. Any
lingering showers will diminish before 08Z, early Thursday
morning, but low clouds will settle in over the western
terminals, particularly for KLWB and KBLF. Areas of patchy fog
could develop for a few hours Thursday morning, especially in
areas that received rain today. Ceilings will lift and fog will
dissipate after 12Z Thursday, and conditions will return to VFR
areawide by mid morning. Some afternoon cumulus may develop, but
expecting SKC for most by 20Z or so.

Westerly winds today will turn northwest to northerly Thursday
after a front moves through the region and high pressure
builds in. Speeds will mostly be 10 knots or less, with the
occasional gust between 15 to 20 knots west of the Blue Ridge.

A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon,
but not confident enough in impacts to area terminals to include
in the TAFs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the end of the
week, as high pressure brings a few days of quiet weather, though
fog remains possible during the overnight hours. A front starts
to approach the area from the south by the weekend, bringing
increasing chances for showers and possible storms to the
southern half of the forecast area for the weekend. Another
front approaches from the west early in the work week, which
will also bring more chances for scattered precipitation and
possible sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ011-013-014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-
507-281815-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

WVZ508-281815-
Western Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-281815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an
approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash flooding
risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms train
over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of producing
rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ013-014-017-032-033-272300-
Franklin VA-Pulaski VA-Patrick VA-Floyd VA-Montgomery VA-
626 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN
PATRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pilot, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Floyd...
Indian Valley...
Pilot...
Copper Hill...
Ferrum...
Terrys Fork...
and Endicott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central, southwestern and west central Virginia...and
southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 8067 3710 8041 3709 7991 3692 7992
      3677 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 276DEG 33KT 3701 8033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
720 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ007-009>012-WVZ042-280015-
Tazewell VA-Giles VA-Bland VA-Wythe VA-Smyth VA-Mercer WV-
720 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
WEST CENTRAL GILES...NORTHERN SMYTH...TAZEWELL...BLAND...NORTHWESTERN
WYTHE AND SOUTHERN MERCER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bramwell to near Tiptop to near Claypool Hill.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Bland...
Princeton...
Tazewell...
Cedar Bluff...
Ceres...
and Rocky Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southwestern Virginia...and southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 8161 3721 8156 3726 8150 3727 8142
      3738 8134 3742 8128 3728 8087 3704 8116
      3683 8164 3707 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 285DEG 16KT 3732 8132 3718 8148 3699 8180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Buchanan                37.52N 79.69W
05/27/2026                   Botetourt          VA   911 Call Center

            A large tree was blown down by thunderstorm
            winds in the town of Buchanan.

&&

16