Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
154 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch #247 in effect until 9PM for WV/VA
primarily east of I-77, all the way to the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the forecast
area with the main threat between 2PM-9PM. Strong to severe
gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary
hazard, but isolated hail may also occur.

30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will promote relatively fast
moving storm cells this afternoon and evening. Upper short wave
trough over the Ohio Valley along with east-west oriented front
across the northern Mid-Atlantic will serve as a focus for
organized storm development. In addition, expecting isolated to
scattered storms to develop along the Blue Ridge... all activity
moving east as we progress through the late afternoon and
evening.

Moderate instability (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg) is being forecast across
the northern part of our CWA coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly
deep-layer shear. This should support a mix of multicells and
marginal supercell structures is anticipated along/south of the
front, with scattered damaging winds the main severe risk. Some
hail could also occur with the strongest cores.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

Rain has been plentiful the last seven days. With precipitable
water (PWAT) values AOA 1.50 any deep convection will be rain
efficient promoting rain rates of 2-4". Organized storms will
have the best chance to produce excessive rainfall, so be on the
lookout for localized flash flooding. Given the relatively fast
storm cell movement, expecting somewhat lower residence time of
the heavy rain cores, so unless we have training cells, rainfall
totals should generally be held under an inch. That said, high
rain rates can still quickly translate into rapid runoff and
localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorms are already beginning to form in southwest
Virginia, but as the afternoon continues, they will become more
organized and widespread. All TAF sites have the potential to
experience a strong thunderstorm today. Thunderstorms will quiet
down and taper off sometime before midnight for most of the
area. Strong wind gusts can occur with little notice in the
vicinity of thunderstorms. Additionally, some of these showers
and storms could have high rain rates, temporarily reducing vsby
from the relatively clear conditions we are seeing right now.

Cigs will lower in the presence of any showers or storms,
potentially dropping conditions into MVFR/IFR. Once the
precipitation clears up tonight, cigs will lift again, leaving
most of the area VFR or high end MVFR through Thursday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

By Thursday, the stalled front pushes south of the area, with
high pressure from the north moving in. While shower/storms may
still be possible, they will be isolated and primarily limited
to our southern locations, such as DAN. This will allow for
mostly VFR flight conditions to return to the remainder of the
terminals. VFR will be expected to continue, though fog remains
possible during the overnight hours.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ011-013-014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-
507-281815-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

WVZ508-281815-
Western Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-281815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an
approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash flooding
risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms train
over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of producing
rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
607 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ018-019-023-024-272245-
Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Rockbridge VA-Alleghany VA-
607 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN
CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND
BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 607 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Covington, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Covington...
Buchanan...
Eagle Rock...
Jordan Mines...
Oriskany...
Collierstown...
and Iron Gate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central, south central, southwestern and west central Virginia...and
southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 8016 3782 8001 3777 7955 3758 7956
      3746 7984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 284DEG 29KT 3772 8003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
608 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Ronceverte        37.75N 80.46W
05/27/2026                   Greenbrier         WV   911 Call Center

            A large tree was blown down by thunderstorm
            winds onto an unoccupied vehicle along Mike
            Stuart Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ013-014-017-032-033-272300-
Franklin VA-Pulaski VA-Patrick VA-Floyd VA-Montgomery VA-
626 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN
PATRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pilot, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Floyd...
Indian Valley...
Pilot...
Copper Hill...
Ferrum...
Terrys Fork...
and Endicott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central, southwestern and west central Virginia...and
southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 8067 3710 8041 3709 7991 3692 7992
      3677 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 276DEG 33KT 3701 8033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

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