Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
154 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch #247 in effect until 9PM for WV/VA
primarily east of I-77, all the way to the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the forecast
area with the main threat between 2PM-9PM. Strong to severe
gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary
hazard, but isolated hail may also occur.

30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will promote relatively fast
moving storm cells this afternoon and evening. Upper short wave
trough over the Ohio Valley along with east-west oriented front
across the northern Mid-Atlantic will serve as a focus for
organized storm development. In addition, expecting isolated to
scattered storms to develop along the Blue Ridge... all activity
moving east as we progress through the late afternoon and
evening.

Moderate instability (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg) is being forecast across
the northern part of our CWA coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly
deep-layer shear. This should support a mix of multicells and
marginal supercell structures is anticipated along/south of the
front, with scattered damaging winds the main severe risk. Some
hail could also occur with the strongest cores.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a flash flood risk today.

Rain has been plentiful the last seven days. With precipitable
water (PWAT) values AOA 1.50 any deep convection will be rain
efficient promoting rain rates of 2-4". Organized storms will
have the best chance to produce excessive rainfall, so be on the
lookout for localized flash flooding. Given the relatively fast
storm cell movement, expecting somewhat lower residence time of
the heavy rain cores, so unless we have training cells, rainfall
totals should generally be held under an inch. That said, high
rain rates can still quickly translate into rapid runoff and
localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorms are already beginning to form in southwest
Virginia, but as the afternoon continues, they will become more
organized and widespread. All TAF sites have the potential to
experience a strong thunderstorm today. Thunderstorms will quiet
down and taper off sometime before midnight for most of the
area. Strong wind gusts can occur with little notice in the
vicinity of thunderstorms. Additionally, some of these showers
and storms could have high rain rates, temporarily reducing vsby
from the relatively clear conditions we are seeing right now.

Cigs will lower in the presence of any showers or storms,
potentially dropping conditions into MVFR/IFR. Once the
precipitation clears up tonight, cigs will lift again, leaving
most of the area VFR or high end MVFR through Thursday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

By Thursday, the stalled front pushes south of the area, with
high pressure from the north moving in. While shower/storms may
still be possible, they will be isolated and primarily limited
to our southern locations, such as DAN. This will allow for
mostly VFR flight conditions to return to the remainder of the
terminals. VFR will be expected to continue, though fog remains
possible during the overnight hours.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ011-013-014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-
507-281815-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

WVZ508-281815-
Western Greenbrier-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash
flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms
train over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of
producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

A Slight Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-281815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
203 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Afternoon storms will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts.

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for today as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue due to
an
approaching cold front. After recent heavy rains, the flash flooding
risk is more of a concern, especially where showers/storms train
over the same areas. Storms will have the capability of producing
rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
321 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ019-271930-
Wilkes NC-
321 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SOUTH CENTRAL WILKES COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Windy Gap to near Boomer. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boomer...
Moravian Falls...
and Wilkesboro Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8134 3604 8137 3604 8140 3606 8139
      3610 8135 3613 8105 3605 8100 3603 8107
      3604 8114 3603 8117 3604 8120 3603 8127
      3601 8129 3601 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 302DEG 8KT 3608 8107 3604 8132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ005-VAZ043-271945-
Rockingham NC-Henry VA-
323 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 345
PM EDT...

At 323 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ridgeway, or near Stoneville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Ridgeway...
Sandy Level...
and Price.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central, southwestern and west central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7994 3659 7992 3661 7970 3654 7971
      3654 7969 3646 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 274DEG 21KT 3653 7985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS