Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible today. First round
possible this morning with a second, more potent round of
storms beginning by the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, with a secondary tornado and hail threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms
have the potential to be strong/severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms
have the potential to be strong/severe.

A potent upper shortwave will traverse through the Great Lakes
this morning, shifting into New England by this evening. Slight
amplification of this wave will occur by the afternoon, and
multiple waves of storms will be possible.

Current satellite indicates a decaying Mesoscale Convective
System over the Tennessee Valley with some renewed development
now across the upper Ohio Valley. Guidance has development
within this zone continuing over the next few hours, but
confidence in this is still rather uncertain given meager
coverage of storms ongoing when compared to model simulated
reflectivity. Should this area fill in as modeled, it will drop
south into the forecast area around daybreak. Severe threat
with this should be fairly minimal based on limited
instability, however increasing bulk shear could support a few
organized bowing segments capable of strong wind gusts.

A second round of storms will be possible this afternoon
associated with the main frontal passage. Storms this afternoon
will be highly dependent on how the morning convection
progresses through the area. At the moment, it appears there
will at least be some clearing by early afternoon resulting in
marginal surface heating within a moist boundary layer yielding
MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Increasing deep layer shear
overlapping with favorable instability will likely result in
widely scattered storms capable of all severe modes. 0-6 km
shear (30-40 knots) is also supportive of supercells, which
could produce isolated tornadoes given increasing 0-3 km SRH by
mid- afternoon. Supercells and organized multicell line
segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts.

A localized flash flooding threat also exists within areas of
training/repeated rounds of storms. Overall, storms motions
should help mitigate the flooding threat today.

The front and trough axis moves quickly southeast and out of the
forecast area by midnight. Upslope flow may bring a few showers
to the mountains overnight, but the severe threat will be over.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR this morning with mostly areas of altostratus moving across
from upstream convection over West Virginia. Should see
increasing development of storms throughout the morning,
shifting south into the area arriving sometime around 8AM -
10AM. Some clearing is expected to occur sometime late morning
and into the afternoon with a second round of storms expected to
develop in the afternoon/evening.

After 22Z or so, most models have storms out of southeast WV,
continuing for eastern VA and NC for a few more hours through at
least 00z. Improving conditions expected late tonight as storms
lessen, with perhaps just some residual upslope showers in West
Virginia through midnight.

Winds increasing by mid morning to 10 to 15 knots, with gusts
up to 25 knots possible by the afternoon, turning from
southwesterly to westerly by early afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Gusty, post frontal winds are expected Wednesday, but VFR. The
rest of the week through Friday will also be mainly VFR, outside
of any morning fog. Precipitation chances increase again by
Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-290700-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
251 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today. Strong to
severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail,
and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VAZ012-013-016-017-281800-
Pulaski VA-Wythe VA-Floyd VA-Carroll VA-
125 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PULASKI...WEST CENTRAL FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN WYTHE AND
NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 125 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gunton Park, or near Max Meadows, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski...
Hillsville...
Indian Valley...
Max Meadows...
Patterson...
Allisonia...
and Dugspur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern North Carolina...south central,
southwestern and west central Virginia...and southeastern West
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 8102 3707 8093 3707 8091 3709 8092
      3711 8090 3690 8040 3671 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 303DEG 33KT 3700 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

WVZ043-507-508-281815-
Western Greenbrier WV-Summers WV-Eastern Greenbrier WV-
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN GREENBRIER AND NORTHEASTERN SUMMERS COUNTIES THROUGH 215
PM EDT...

At 128 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Babcock State Park, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rainelle...
Alderson...
Rupert...
Quinwood...
Renick...
Falling Spring...
and Asbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southwestern and west central Virginia...and southeastern West
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 8032 3772 8063 3773 8066 3769 8068
      3762 8074 3784 8090 3787 8081 3787 8075
      3795 8081 3799 8077 3799 8079 3802 8080
      3804 8083 3806 8080 3805 8084 3806 8087
      3808 8089 3810 8088 3808 8071 3811 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 298DEG 31KT 3811 8094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Atkins                  36.87N 81.42W
07/28/2026                   Smyth              VA   911 Call Center

            Numerous trees were reported down across the
            Atkins area in Smyth County Virginia this
            morning.

&&

EB