Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
505 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some models show the cold front over the weekend coming in a bit
faster, more Saturday night than Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through
  Saturday, with best chances for more widespread activity on
  Wednesday.

- 2) A strong cold front brings cooler air back to the area for
  the end of the weekend into next week, with potential for
  frost or freezing conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will push southward into central Ohio and northern
West Virginia Wednesday, before stalling, and then returning
northward as a warm front Wednesday night. This will create the
best chances for showers and thunderstorms for the work week.
Depending on cloud cover and how much heating can occur south of
the front, there is the possibility that a few thunderstorms
could become strong enough to produce damaging winds and/or
large hail.

A south to southwesterly flow will remain behind the
front for Thursday into Saturday. This will allow for more
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models have diverged a bit on the timing of a strong cold front
that will will push through the region Saturday night or Sunday.
Some models are now showing a faster timing with the front
arriving Saturday night. Regardless, this will increase chances
of showers and thunderstorms while bringing cooler air for the
end of the weekend and into the next work week. This could set
the area up for the potential for frost or freezing conditions.

Models are now further north with a potential clipper system on
Tuesday. This could leave the area in warmer air, or with
precipitation possibly north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Some LLWS is possible early this morning, especially in deeper
mountain valleys and just north of the cold front.

A cold front will push southward into central Ohio and northern
West Virginia today, before stalling, and then returning
northward as a warm front tonight. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected today, most intense during the
afternoon hours. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, expect
VFR conditions south of the front with a southwest wind flow,
with MVFR clouds north of the front with a northwest to north
wind flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could occur
throughout the TAF period, but have been timed to the most
likely timing in the TAFs. Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions could vary. Extent of
LLWS early this morning could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 04/01/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evening, and again Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
821 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ102-103-105-WVZ005-011245-
Boyd KY-Carter KY-Lawrence KY-Wayne WV-
821 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BOYD...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN CARTER AND NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES
THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

At 821 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Webbville, or 8 miles north of Blaine, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Wayne, Yatesville Lake State Park, Fort Gay, Webbville,
Durbin, Burnaugh, Centerville, Lockwood, Willard, Buchanan,
Houckville, Fallsburg, and Genoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 8249 3805 8239 3807 8294 3809 8293
      3810 8292 3810 8291 3811 8289 3813 8291
      3815 8291 3817 8292 3817 8298 3819 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1221Z 253DEG 40KT 3814 8286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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