Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
505 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some models show the cold front over the weekend coming in a bit
faster, more Saturday night than Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through
  Saturday, with best chances for more widespread activity on
  Wednesday.

- 2) A strong cold front brings cooler air back to the area for
  the end of the weekend into next week, with potential for
  frost or freezing conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will push southward into central Ohio and northern
West Virginia Wednesday, before stalling, and then returning
northward as a warm front Wednesday night. This will create the
best chances for showers and thunderstorms for the work week.
Depending on cloud cover and how much heating can occur south of
the front, there is the possibility that a few thunderstorms
could become strong enough to produce damaging winds and/or
large hail.

A south to southwesterly flow will remain behind the
front for Thursday into Saturday. This will allow for more
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models have diverged a bit on the timing of a strong cold front
that will will push through the region Saturday night or Sunday.
Some models are now showing a faster timing with the front
arriving Saturday night. Regardless, this will increase chances
of showers and thunderstorms while bringing cooler air for the
end of the weekend and into the next work week. This could set
the area up for the potential for frost or freezing conditions.

Models are now further north with a potential clipper system on
Tuesday. This could leave the area in warmer air, or with
precipitation possibly north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Some LLWS is possible early this morning, especially in deeper
mountain valleys and just north of the cold front.

A cold front will push southward into central Ohio and northern
West Virginia today, before stalling, and then returning
northward as a warm front tonight. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected today, most intense during the
afternoon hours. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, expect
VFR conditions south of the front with a southwest wind flow,
with MVFR clouds north of the front with a northwest to north
wind flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could occur
throughout the TAF period, but have been timed to the most
likely timing in the TAFs. Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions could vary. Extent of
LLWS early this morning could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 04/01/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evening, and again Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
856 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

WVZ013-025-026-011330-
Boone WV-Lincoln WV-Logan WV-
856 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN
LOGAN AND WEST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EDT...

At 856 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harts, or 16 miles northwest of Logan, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spurlockville, Gill, Harts, Alkol, Turtle Creek, and Mud.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 47 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8222 3802 8220 3805 8219 3805 8221
      3807 8221 3807 8223 3821 8192 3802 8186
      3797 8222 3800 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 249DEG 23KT 3804 8217

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1227 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VAZ004-WVZ033-011645-
Buchanan VA-McDowell WV-
1227 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL BUCHANAN AND
CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of War, or 14 miles east of Grundy, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Welch, Gary, War, Davy, Bradshaw, Coalwood, Avondale, Jolo, and
Cucumber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 8195 3750 8160 3724 8151 3724 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 255DEG 25KT 3731 8184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

WVZ033-011745-
McDowell WV-
127 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northfork, or 9 miles southeast of Welch, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gary, Northfork, Keystone, Anawalt, Maybeury, and Jenkinjones.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8154 3746 8143 3746 8139 3744 8137
      3743 8134 3743 8133 3742 8131 3733 8137
      3732 8137 3732 8140 3728 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 264DEG 18KT 3736 8144

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

WVZ033-011745-
McDowell WV-
129 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northfork, or 9 miles southeast of Welch, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gary, Anawalt, Maybeury, and Jenkinjones.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8144 3736 8151 3740 8133 3736 8135
      3733 8137 3732 8137 3732 8140 3728 8141
      3727 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 240DEG 13KT 3735 8144

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ105-WVZ005-011800-
Lawrence KY-Wayne WV-
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ulysses, or 9 miles northwest of Inez, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Fort Gay, Dunlow, Ulysses, Charley, Gallup, Crum, Clifford,
and Glenhayes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 8257 3804 8243 3791 8240 3790 8245
      3791 8247 3790 8248 3792 8248 3793 8250
      3794 8249 3795 8250 3796 8254 3795 8258
      3793 8258 3792 8260 3789 8260 3788 8265
      3791 8272 3799 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 240DEG 13KT 3795 8268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ105-WVZ005-011800-
Lawrence KY-Wayne WV-
142 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 141 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ulysses, or 9 miles northwest of Inez, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Fort Gay, Dunlow, Ulysses, Charley, Gallup, Clifford, and
Glenhayes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 8257 3804 8243 3797 8242 3791 8245
      3791 8247 3792 8248 3793 8250 3794 8249
      3795 8250 3796 8254 3795 8258 3793 8258
      3792 8260 3789 8260 3788 8264 3791 8272
      3799 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 240DEG 13KT 3796 8266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11