Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
423 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
420 PM Update...
Increased PoPs a bit and added severe weather wording to the
forcast for late this afternoon and tonight.

250 PM Update...
A severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the forecast area
until 8 PM this evening.

225 PM Update...
Update on severe weather potential today,
tonight, and through the weekend. Aviation forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today and tonight
  with a cold front. Main risks will be damaging winds, hail,
  and the chance for an isolated tornado. Remaining active
  through the weekend.

- 2) Cooler, more mild temperatures to close the weekend and
  start next week with a strong cold front. Frost/freeze
  conditions are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
250 PM Update...

In coordination with Storm Prediction Center and neighboring
offices, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for nearly
all of the forecast area until 8PM tonight. Possible hazards
are damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and large hail instances up
to 1.5 inches in diameter.

Satellite imagery shows extensive clearing occurring across the
area with agitated cumulus fields suggesting robust convection
is taking place. Cells continue to move up from Kentucky and
there has been reports across our southern coalfield counties in
WV of hail size up to 1.00"(quarter size) and 1.25"(half-dollar
size). Models keep this activity through the afternoon and
evening with coverage increasing later this afternoon and
evening.

225 PM Update...
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
through tonight as a cold front to our north drops south over or
northern tier counties today. A few storms may be strong to
severe and most of the area is outlooked for severe weather to
cover this. The main risk is damaging winds, but hail and the
low chance for an isolated tornado also exist.

The primary storm mode will be discrete cells, with a few
possibly becoming supercellular. Some models show multicell
clusters occurring this afternoon ahead of a broken line of
storms this evening, which will raise the risk for heavy
downpours and thus localized instances of flash flooding.

Chances for showers and storms remain in place each afternoon
and evening Thursday through Saturday as this front remains
parked across our northern periphery. Severe weather is not
expected at this time Thursday through Saturday, but watching
Saturday closely as a strong cold front will move through late
in the afternoon and evening which may lead to some strong to
severe weather depending on the timing of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will be well above normal through Saturday, more
reminiscent to summertime even, especially Thursday and Saturday
with highs in the upper 80s across the lowlands. A strong cold
front moves through late Saturday into Sunday which will cause
cooler, slightly below normal temperatures to move into the
area Sunday through middle of next week. Overnight lows in the
upper 20s to upper 30s are possible next week as a result of
this cooler airmass. There is still some disagreement among
models as to how much cooler it will be though.

Because of this frost/freeze headlines may be needed multiple
nights next week due to the growing season having started across
a bulk of the area. A clipper system may move through Monday
night into Tuesday which might bring some light snow showers
across the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains of
West Virginia.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT to BKN ceilings of CU and towering CU generally between
3,500 and 9,000 feet AGL this afternoon as convection emerges.
Visible satellite even shows some clearing occurring across
portions of the central lowlands and mountains.

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue
to form this afternoon and evening (highest likelihood between
~19 and ~23z). Some storms will be strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and cloud to ground
lightning being the main threats. Hail and the low chance for an
isolated tornado are also possible though. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected in and around any storms. TEMPO groups
have been added at many sites this afternoon due to the scattered
nature of these storms.

Winds will be southwesterly today and will be breezy to gusty
at times (between 15 and 20 knots). Winds will decrease tonight
and back to the southeast as lingering showers and
thunderstorms gradually taper off.

Stratocumulus looks to form across the northern tier of the
forecast area tonight as a front stalls. This would impact
CKB,EKN, and PKB, maybe even BKW. IFR or lower is possible as a
result of this and has been noted in the TAFs where highest
confidence is. VFR will resume tomorrow morning giving way to
scattered CU after any low clouds erode.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast today and tonight.
Timing of low ceilings across our northern sites tonight may
also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and thunderstorms is possible Thursday and
Friday, and again Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TRM/LTC
AVIATION...LTC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
422 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

WVZ033-034-012045-
Wyoming WV-McDowell WV-
422 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Hanover, or 9 miles west of Welch, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pineville, Oceana, Twin Falls State Park, Davy, Kopperston, Clear
Fork, Cyclone, Wolf Pen, Maben, and Baileysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southern and southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 8182 3778 8167 3778 8161 3764 8135
      3763 8134 3747 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 207DEG 18KT 3748 8175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

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