Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
729 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.

Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A series of systems bring rounds of severe thunderstorms and
potential for substantial flash flooding today through
Thursday.

2) Briefly drier late Friday into Saturday, then turning active
again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Southwest US and then
slides towards the Southeast US mid to late week. Meanwhile, the
Middle Ohio Valley will be entrenched within a west to northwest
flow regime on the periphery of this ridge. Amidst this pattern, a
series of mesoscale convective systems are projected to traverse the
area, bringing rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as
potential for substantial flash flooding.

While both the timing and track of these systems are uncertain,
there is high confidence that the systems will bring impactful
weather to the area today through Thursday.

- Flooding:

Plenty of moisture, evidenced by precipitable water values in the
1.5 to 2 inch range, will support heavy downpours within any
convection that develops this week. These downpours could easily
produce an inch or two of rain in a short amount of time. Training
storms would produce even higher amounts that could result in flash
flooding. The flood risk may be further heightened as systems
continue to roll through over the next couple of days.

Although there is low confidence in where highest rainfall amounts
will accrue, there is high confidence that there will be enough rain
for flooding to develop in the area. Should "worst case" model
scenarios materialize, then significant flooding would be
possible for portions of the area. In addition to the flash
flood threat, river flooding may develop as excessive rainfall
makes its way into local streams and rivers.

A Flood Watch has been issued for the entirety of the forecast area
from this afternoon through Thursday night.

- Severe Thunderstorms:

The aforementioned convective systems are also expected to
usher rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area
this week. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, though
the environment could also support a low-end tornado threat, or
potential for marginally severe hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A ridge of high pressure strengthens over the southeast US,
prompting quieter weather late week into the weekend; however,
this reprieve is likely to be short-lived as the ridge is
projected to break down or shift west again early in the new
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the start of the TAF period, but
after 04Z Tuesday, expect rain and thunderstorms to impact most
sites. Visibility will be reduced to MVFR or IFR in the heavier
downpours, and ceilings will drop to MVFR or IFR after 09Z.
There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity by 15-17Z
Tuesday, but redevelopment will then be possible late Tuesday
afternoon or evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm timing and associated
restrictions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Tuesday through Friday, additional convective complexes favor
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or IFR in
heavy rain. Morning valley fog or low stratus may return after
wetting rains, especially at EKN and other sheltered sites.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1109 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 ESE New Lexington     39.70N 82.12W
08/10/2026                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down on State Route 13.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1112 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Junction City       39.73N 82.30W
08/10/2026                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down at Garey Road and Old Junction
            Road.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1129 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     Flash Flood      Crooksville             39.77N 82.10W
08/10/2026                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Flooding on West Main Street.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     Flash Flood      6 E Corning             39.59N 81.98W
08/11/2026                   Morgan             OH   911 Call Center

            Water covering SR 78.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
138 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     Flash Flood      5 SSE Crooksville       39.70N 82.06W
08/11/2026                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Flooding.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 AM     Flash Flood      5 WSW Malta             39.61N 81.94W
08/11/2026                   Morgan             OH   911 Call Center

            Bridge on Nicloes Road is submerge with
            water over guard rail. West Buck Run Road
            has over 35 inches of water over it.

&&

RPY