Flash Flood Warning 134, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
338 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thunderstorm activity thus far today leaves behind widespread
tree and power line damage and rainfall amounts in excess of 2
to 4 inches. While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch gradually reduces
in size across SE West Virginia with the departure of these
storms, renewed severe potential arrives in the next few hours
from the west, warranting a new Watch for portions of Kentucky
and Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Episodic rounds of showers and storms so far today sets the
stage for additional activity moving in late this afternoon and
evening, leading to little to no reprieve.

2.) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
prevails through the end of the week. A small window of reprieve
arrives on Saturday before filling back in quickly with active
weather for the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar trends at the time of writing depicts several clusters of
thunderstorm activity from the Midwest into the Appalachians.
Several rounds of severe and flooding have already pressed
through the forecast area today, contributing to widespread tree
and power line damage, as well as life-threatening flash
flooding.

Atmospheric recovery efforts already appears underway, with the
western flank of the forecast area branching back out into
sunshine and temperatures quickly rising back into the 70s to
almost low 80s. Focusing on convection upstream, a corridor of
severe strength storms stretches from central Indiana into the
Columbus area of Ohio and tracking south-southeastward. Storms
will likely follow the path of least resistance when it comes to
their propagation through the Ohio Valley, and that will be
strongly based on areas of best destabilization. With that in
mind, opted to hoist a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of
Kentucky and Ohio through the afternoon as we closely track this
line. As has been the case with the history of storms today,
convective activity will be capable of producing damaging to
destructive wind gusts, quarter size hail, embedded rotation
that could touch down into a tornado, and heavy downpours.

Confidence in the forecast for the overnight period remains low,
with each cycle run of our readily Convective Available Models
suggesting additional development of storms along a pseudo-warm
front parked overhead. Repetition of these overnight storms will
contribute to ongoing flash flooding concerns across the
forecast area. The Flood Watch remains in effect tonight into
most of the work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms triumphs through at
least Thursday while a frontal boundary remains draped through
the heart of the Ohio Valley. Propagation of these storms will
remain closely tied to the low to mid level wind field each day,
which will sometimes cause a southeastward approach of
convection and at other times bypass our forecast area
altogether. Complexes that are able to hold their composure and
venture into the area will bring damaging wind gusts and
torrential heavy rain. Sufficient rainfall producers will only
exacerbate already inundated soils more and could lead to easily
achievable flash flooding. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in
place through Friday morning.

The start of the weekend trends slightly drier with the mass
exodus of the stalled front, but may quickly fill back in with
additional convection aiming for the Central Appalachians for
Sunday and onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flight conditions remain tarnished by showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening as clusters of activity
continue to drive in from the northwest. Storms today have had a
history of strong wind gusts from 40 to 70 knots as well as IFR
vsbys, so will maintain that trend as this line of storms track
into southeast West Virginia. Additional activity propagates in
from the Ohio Valley late this afternoon into this evening.

Behind thunderstorm activity tonight, excess moisture and
calming winds will work in tandem to create locally dense fog
and low ceilings over our airspace. All sites will be
susceptible overnight to fog development, especially those who
have received rain amounts of an inch or more today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm timing and associated
restrictions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Wednesday through Friday, additional convective complexes favor
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or IFR in
heavy rain. Morning valley fog or low stratus may return after
wetting rains, especially at EKN and other sheltered sites.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05

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