Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
923 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of eastern
Kentucky and southeast Ohio through early this afternoon for
strong wind gust potential attached to a thunderstorm complex
driving through the Ohio Valley. Environmental conditions and
the propagation of this complex will be closely monitored
through the course of the day to determine whether more counties
in the forecast area warrant local expansion of the Watch.

639 AM update...
Increased messaging for high-end severe weather
potential late this afternoon and evening, including damaging
isolated wind gusts exceeding 74 mph and possible line-embedded
tornadoes.

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Updated 12Z aviation discussion. Models continue to handle
existing convection rather poorly casting lending uncertainty to
convection evolution this afternoon. Chances for significant
wind gusts may be slightly reduced from the previous thinking
owning to earlier convection ahead of the main line late this
afternoon into this evening but the risk remains in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Flooding ongoing across southeast Ohio through this
morning, with renewed scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy
rainfall and marginal severe wind gusts developing late this
morning.

2.) Potentially high-impact severe thunderstorm complex
expected late this afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts,
some potentially significant (74+ mph) or embedded tornadoes,
and additional life-threatening flash flooding are possible.

3.) Unsettled weather continues Wednesday and Thursday with
repeated rounds of strong to severe storms and flash flooding
before a brief respite arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extreme rainfall rates and considerable backbuilding overnight
produced 4 to 7 inches of rain across Perry and Morgan counties
in southeast Ohio, resulting in issuance of a Flash Flood
Emergency. While the congealing convective complex is sinking
south toward through West Virginia early this morning and
taking on a somewhat more progressive motion, the threat for
additional flash flooding remains possible across basins
basins that saw significant rainfall yesterday. Modest near-
surface flow ahead of the line is keeping low levels slightly
unsaturated, though stronger cores may still transport marginal
damaging wind gusts to the surface.

Despite cloud cover and earlier convection, limited
stabilization along the western periphery and persistent
westerly flow will allow warm, sultry air to flood back into
southeast Ohio and western West Virginia later this morning.
Surface-based parcels are expected to become uncapped between 10
AM and 11 AM as MLCAPE rapidly recovers to 2000 to 3000 J/kg.
Latest high-resolution guidance shows uncertainty in convective
initiation, but minimal mesoscale forcing will be required to
spark renewed convection along remnant boundaries. Additionally,
ongoing storm clusters over Indiana could attach to the
expanding instability plume and move directly into western
counties by late morning. Any storms that re-fire during this
window will pose a renewed risk for torrential rainfall rates,
localized flash flooding, marginally severe wind gusts, and
isolated hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A higher end severe weather event is possible late this
afternoon into this evening as a potent convective complex
evolves into a organized squall line. The convective cluster
originating over the northern Plains is forecast to consolidate
into a long-lived mesoscale convective system while propagating
rapidly eastward along the northern periphery of the central
ridge. Driven by strong H700 flow of 40 to 50KT and strong
instability (MLCAPE 2000 to 3000J/kg, DCAPE 1000 to 1200J/kg),
this squall line is projected to cross the Middle Ohio Valley
and enter southeast Ohio between 5 PM and 8 PM. Should see the
more substantial gust potential decrease as this progresses to
the east through West Virginia.

The primary hazard with this feature would be damaging
straight- line winds, with bowing segments capable of producing
localized destructive gusts in excess of 74 mph. Quick QLCS
spin-up tornadoes will also be possible along the leading edge
of the bowing line segments or other line discontinuities with
0-3km shear vectors generally from the west-northwest or west.
Overall, the squall line is expected to be rather progressive so
additional rainfall would be fairly short lived.

Remnant outflow from morning activity in Indiana may establish
an effective warm front oriented across or just north of the
northern forecast area. If discrete storms or line segments
interact with this boundary, significantly enhanced low-level
turning (0-1 km SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2) would favor
supercellular structures with a heightened threat for tornadoes.
If this were to materialize, intense rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour within this complex could track directly across
regions that received heavy rain yesterday or overnight tonight
yielding renewed flash flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Guidance indicates that steeper mid-level lapse rates will shift
slightly west of the forecast area on Wednesday somewhat limited
instability. However, sufficient instability and upper-level
energy will persist to maintain a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms and localized flash flooding across eastern
Kentucky, West Virginia, and southwest Virginia.

By Thursday, the core instability plume shifts back
northeastward into the Middle Ohio Valley. Embedded shortwaves
in northwest flow aloft will interact with the warm, humid
surface airmass to generate renewed convective complexes
Thursday afternoon and night, sustaining the multi-day flash
flood risk across already saturated river basins.

An upper-level ridge is forecast to build slightly eastward
Friday afternoon into Saturday. This will push the stronger jet
flow and main convective storm track northeast of the region,
offering a brief period of drier and quieter weather before
active conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Convective activity will dictate flight categories through a
bulk of this TAF period with VFR interspersed with abrupt
IFR/LIFR restrictions in thunderstorms.

This morning a convective complex continues to sink slowly south
across central WV which the heft of the storm expected to pass
just east of CRW.

Another round of storms is possible by late morning with the
strongest round coming late this afternoon into this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm timing and associated
restrictions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Wednesday through Friday, additional convective complexes favor
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or IFR in
heavy rain. Morning valley fog or low stratus may return after
wetting rains, especially at EKN and other sheltered sites.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...05/JP
AVIATION...JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1128 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

KYZ101-102-OHZ087-111600-
Greenup KY-Carter KY-Lawrence OH-
1128 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GREENUP...NORTHWESTERN CARTER AND
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near South Webster to Washington. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portsmouth, Ironton, Lake Vesuvius, Carter Caves State Park, Greenup,
South Shore, Gesling, Greenbo Lake, Load, Letitia, Franklin Furnace,
Carter, Flatwoods, Russell, Vernon, Raceland, Worthington, Wurtland,
Aid, and Hanging Rock.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky near mile marker 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for
northeastern Kentucky...and southeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 8332 3833 8327 3834 8323 3843 8323
      3849 8319 3859 8307 3863 8307 3868 8303
      3873 8303 3875 8288 3861 8285 3857 8282
      3860 8274 3868 8276 3868 8270 3875 8269
      3875 8266 3861 8244 3829 8333 3832 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 303DEG 37KT 3889 8279 3861 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1139 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Nelsonville       39.46N 82.24W
08/11/2026                   Athens             OH   911 Call Center

            Large branch and debris in road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1149 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     The Plains              39.37N 82.13W
08/11/2026                   Athens             OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down in yard on 1st st.

&&

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