Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central
North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a
backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable
environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most
deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest
convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with
outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and
the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as
primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread
organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will
support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger
multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where
storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially
across northern half of the forecast area.

The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern.
Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for
repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized
heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues
to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and
northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and
Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more
persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone
locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through
Saturday.

Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a
degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower
and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices
will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North
Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows
major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day
south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can
be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration,
especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front
approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief
beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

Through 18Z Wednesday: Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
tstms will result in brief IFR conditions in heavier storms, along
with gusty and erratic winds. Convection should diminish by late
evening, with mainly VFR overnight, although patchy MVFR fog or
stratus may develop toward daybreak where rainfall occurs, with the
best chance at KFAY and KRWI. Any sub-VFR restrictions should lift
by mid-morning Wednesday. In summary, outside of tstm activity, flt
conditions will be VFR with light and variable winds becoming light
from the NE overnight.

Wednesday Afternoon Through Sunday: A persistent summertime pattern
will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and
evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with
localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following
heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged
aviation impacts are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-
077-078-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...np
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ042-077-078-088-089-081200-
Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the heat, scattered showers and storms are expected
later today. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds and heavy rain, which could lead to isolated flooding
of low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of scattered showers and storms are possible
Wednesday, with damaging winds as the primary threat along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Following a brief retreat into the lower 90s, temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 90s late this week with dangerously hot
heat indices expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073>076-083>086-081200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will approach 100 degrees across much of central NC
today. In addition to the heat, scattered showers and storms are
expected later today. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds and heavy rain, which could lead to
isolated flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of scattered showers and storms are possible
Wednesday, with damaging winds as the primary threat along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Following a brief retreat into the lower 90s, temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 90s late this week with dangerously hot
heat indices expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ027-042-043-077-078-088-089-072100-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
Cumberland NC-
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN
NASH...NORTHERN SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Bailey to near Smithfield
to 8 miles southeast of Godwin. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Clinton, Wilson, Clayton, Dunn, Benson, Bailey, Godwin,
Micro, and Selma.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 121 and 58.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 319 and 354.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 23 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7879 3550 7857 3576 7836 3582 7826
      3579 7783 3542 7808 3490 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 282DEG 19KT 3574 7821 3548 7842 3511 7861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
452 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ007-023-024-072145-
Alamance NC-Person NC-Orange NC-
452 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE...SOUTHERN
PERSON AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 452 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jericho, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Haw River, Swepsonville, Carr, Lake
Burlington, Schley, Lake Cammack Park & Marina, and Bushy Fork.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 147 and 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7880 3624 7891 3624 7895 3621 7896
      3594 7935 3625 7950 3624 7915 3639 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 312DEG 9KT 3627 7936

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
516 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Selma                   35.54N 78.29W
07/07/2026                   Johnston           NC   Utility Company

            Power outages were reported due to trees on
            power lines, in and around the town of
            Selma.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ042-077-078-088-089-072230-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WAYNE...SAMPSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Fort Bragg to 10 miles northwest of Clinton.
Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Clinton, Mount Olive, Fort Bragg, Dunn,
Benson, Walnut Creek, Godwin, and Pope AFB.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 79 and 41.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 330 and 359.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 7846 3485 7850 3484 7891 3490 7894
      3495 7903 3527 7907 3539 7887 3535 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7789 3519 7802 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3490 7815 3480 7818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 336DEG 5KT 3515 7897 3511 7845

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
554 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ009>011-026-027-072300-
Nash NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-
554 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT VANCE...WARREN...NORTH CENTRAL
NASH...WEST CENTRAL HALIFAX AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kittrell, or near Henderson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton, Kittrell, Middleburg,
Macon, Centerville, Medoc Mountain State Park, and Gillburg.

This includes Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 209 and 232.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 7769 3608 7808 3614 7843 3626 7851
      3641 7851 3647 7850 3655 7812 3654 7809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 240DEG 16KT 3626 7841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ007>009-024>026-040-041-072345-
Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Person NC-Wake NC-
Granville NC-Orange NC-
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN VANCE...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...GRANVILLE...WAKE...
NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM...DURHAM AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 639 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rougemont to near Durham to 9 miles south
of Chapel Hill. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Henderson, Oxford, Creedmoor,
Wake Forest, Garner, and Carrboro.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 168 and 212.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 267 and 302.
 Interstate 440 between Mile Markers 1 and 16.
 Interstate 540 between Mile Markers 0 and 24.
 US 1 between Mile Markers 97 and 101.
 the Durham Freeway between Mile Markers 2 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7837 3574 7839 3572 7843 3573 7909
      3599 7907 3625 7894 3641 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 237DEG 21KT 3622 7883 3601 7897 3580 7898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA