Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central
North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a
backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable
environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most
deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest
convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with
outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and
the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as
primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread
organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will
support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger
multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where
storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially
across northern half of the forecast area.

The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern.
Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for
repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized
heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues
to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and
northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and
Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more
persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone
locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through
Saturday.

Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a
degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower
and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices
will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North
Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows
major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day
south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can
be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration,
especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front
approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief
beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

Through 18Z Wednesday: Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
tstms will result in brief IFR conditions in heavier storms, along
with gusty and erratic winds. Convection should diminish by late
evening, with mainly VFR overnight, although patchy MVFR fog or
stratus may develop toward daybreak where rainfall occurs, with the
best chance at KFAY and KRWI. Any sub-VFR restrictions should lift
by mid-morning Wednesday. In summary, outside of tstm activity, flt
conditions will be VFR with light and variable winds becoming light
from the NE overnight.

Wednesday Afternoon Through Sunday: A persistent summertime pattern
will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and
evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with
localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following
heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged
aviation impacts are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-
077-078-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...np
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ042-077-078-088-089-081200-
Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the heat, scattered showers and storms are expected
later today. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds and heavy rain, which could lead to isolated flooding
of low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of scattered showers and storms are possible
Wednesday, with damaging winds as the primary threat along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Following a brief retreat into the lower 90s, temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 90s late this week with dangerously hot
heat indices expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073>076-083>086-081200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will approach 100 degrees across much of central NC
today. In addition to the heat, scattered showers and storms are
expected later today. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds and heavy rain, which could lead to
isolated flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of scattered showers and storms are possible
Wednesday, with damaging winds as the primary threat along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Following a brief retreat into the lower 90s, temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 90s late this week with dangerously hot
heat indices expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
332 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ027-041>043-072000-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Wake NC-Wilson NC-
332 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NASH...SOUTHEASTERN
WAKE...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton, or 12 miles northwest of Smithfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Garner, Clayton, Micro, Selma, Wendell, Pine Level,
Kenly, Princeton, and Middlesex.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 107 and 93.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 302 and 320.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 23 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 7813 3544 7814 3543 7815 3551 7866
      3574 7863 3585 7812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 277DEG 14KT 3564 7852

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ027-042-043-077-078-088-089-072100-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
Cumberland NC-
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN
NASH...NORTHERN SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Bailey to near Smithfield
to 8 miles southeast of Godwin. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Clinton, Wilson, Clayton, Dunn, Benson, Bailey, Godwin,
Micro, and Selma.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 121 and 58.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 319 and 354.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 23 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7879 3550 7857 3576 7836 3582 7826
      3579 7783 3542 7808 3490 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 282DEG 19KT 3574 7821 3548 7842 3511 7861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA