Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Raleigh, NC

152 
WGUS72 KRAH 070351
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1151 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCC063-135-070500-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260707T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Durham NC-Orange NC-
1151 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 1151 PM EDT, Widespread heavy rainfall has ended. Localized 
moderate rainfall and continued drainage of floodwater will continue 
the risk for flash flooding near creeks and streams. Between 1 and 
3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 
inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Carrboro, Eno River State Park, 
  Efland, Cane Creek Reservoir and Jordan Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 7925 3606 7917 3609 7910 3610 7904
      3610 7897 3608 7892 3605 7890 3600 7889
      3596 7892 3594 7894 3593 7898 3590 7904
      3588 7917 3592 7923

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

AS

547 
WGUS72 KRAH 070454
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1254 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCC063-135-070504-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260707T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Durham NC-Orange NC-
1254 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

Local stream gauge have crested and are beginning to recede. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 7925 3606 7917 3609 7910 3610 7904
      3610 7897 3608 7892 3605 7890 3600 7889
      3596 7892 3594 7894 3593 7898 3590 7904
      3588 7917 3592 7923

$$

AS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 PM Monday...

1) Hot, with scattered to locally numerous convection with strong to
locally damaging wind gusts ahead of a backdoor front that will
settle into cntl NC Tue evening through early Wed

2) Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue, primarily over
the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through Fri, with more
widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase again heading
into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return briefly from the
Triangle south and east late in the week, but it won't be nearly as
intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot, with scattered to locally numerous convection
with strong to locally damaging wind gusts ahead of a backdoor front
that will settle into cntl NC Tue evening through early Wed

In the mid/upr-levels, convectively-perturbed swly flow will persist
across the Southeast, between a very slow-moving cyclone over the
mid MS Valley and a sub-tropical ridge across the swrn N. Atlantic.
While associated heights will remain generally neutral, and with
some tendency for the flow to be anticyclonic around the ridge,
small MCVs from upstream convection will probably focus mesoscale
lift amid moist and conditionally unstable profiles characterized by
PWs around 2-2.25" and 125% of normal. One such MCV, from deep
convection over AL/GA last evening, has tracked with its associated
mid-level cloud shield newd and into the srn Piedmont of NC this
afternoon. It should continue to progress newd and across the nrn NC
Piedmont and s-cntl to sern VA through this evening. Another MCV
appears to have developed, according to KRAX and KCAE mid-level
velocity data, within a convective cluster that has more recently
developed out of cntl SC. This feature will follow a similar
trajectory as the first, though slightly farther east (across the
Sandhills and ern Piedmont) and trailing by a couple of hours.

At the surface, the pattern will remain a generally persistence one
in and around cntl NC, with an Appalachian-lee trough extending
across the NC Piedmont. A weak lee and increasingly frontal low over
the Middle Peninsula of VA this afternoon will sag swd with an
associated backdoor, outflow-reinforced front and into at least n-
cntl NC Tue evening-night.

In this similar/persistence pattern, though more-moist at the
surface and through the mid/upr-levels, multi-cell convection will
continue to focus ahead of the aforementioned MCVs and along
outflow, with newd propagation across most all of cntl NC through
the evening. While most areas will generally be impacted, its
inherent multi-cell nature will favor heavy, convective rain for
some and barely measurable, decaying stratiform rain for others.

Although DCAPE has decreased given the increasing deep moisture (PWs
around 2" vs 1.5" of Sun), moderate to strong instability (highest
and in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg centered in the srn Coastal Plain
and ern Sandhills) will support water-loaded/wet microbursts, though
probably fewer in number than Sun given the diminished DCAPE. The
environment will be very similar yet again on Tue, with probably
similar coverage and risk of downburst winds.

While temperatures Tue will also probably be a couple or so degrees
less hot on average than those of today, slightly richer
moisture/higher surface dewpoints will probably yield yet another
day of heat index values of 100 to 105 F for all but the nw
Piedmont. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for a portion of the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where heat index values may reach or
marginally exceed 105 F.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue,
primarily over the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through
Fri, with more widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase
again heading into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return
briefly from the Triangle south and east late in the week, but it
won't be nearly as intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.

PWs will remain around 150% of normal over northern and NE NC Tue,
ahead of a baggy mid level shortwave trough extending from New
England through PA and the Ohio Valley to AR. The corresponding
surface cold front will approach but remain to our N and NW, keeping
us firmly in the warm sector with a surface trough holding through
the Piedmont. Steering flow and deep layer bulk shear will remain
weak Tue, keeping the overall severe threat in check despite
expected moderate SBCAPE and DCAPE near 800 J/kg (although
convective debris cloudiness may curb our instability somewhat). But
the risk of localized heavy rain rates will persist over the
northern and NE CWA, given a likely slow storm motion and the
potential for training and congealing cells within a high-PW
environment, thus pockets of minor urban flooding can't be ruled
out. WPC continues a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over our NE
half Tue.

Previous model runs had favored the mid-level trough and associated
surface cold front dropping SE into, if not fully through, NC, Wed
and Wed night. But more recent model solutions have trended toward a
less-phased trough, with its northern portion pushing E off New
England and the northern Mid Atlantic Wed, while the slower southern
portion drifts E over the central and lower Miss Valley into W KY
and W TN. This results in a flat shortwave ridge over the Carolinas
mid-week, and a surface front that holds near or N of the NC/VA
border (although the Piedmont troughing appears anchored in place).
With weak steering flow, possible warm mid levels and a downturn in
PW, we should see reduced shower/storm coverage Wed/Thu, with just
widely-scattered, late-day garden-variety convection. The southern
portion of the mid level shortwave trough is expected to deamplify
and finally progress eastward, passing by to our N by late Thu into
early Fri. While this may accelerate our mid level flow (esp across
our N) Fri, the flat W-E ridging to our S should still limit
moisture transport into central NC, with few other mechanisms to
force ascent, and expect another day of spotty shower/storm
coverage.

By the weekend, the strengthening blocking ridge over the central
Rockies and Four Corners region will allow longwave troughing to
gradually dig over the eastern CONUS, with strengthening NW flow
allowing perturbations to dive SE into our area. This should result
in an upward trend in moisture, clouds, and shower/storm chances by
Sat/Sun.

Regarding temps, readings are expected to stay generally above
normal through mid to late week, peaking on Friday when highs should
reach the mid to upper 90s. This heat won't be nearly as intense or
long-lived as our most recent heat wave. But we do have patches of
Extreme levels of experimental Heat Risk popping up by Fri over
portions of the area, along with heat indices peaking at or just
over 105F, so small areas of heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...

Main challenge is the immediate near-term of the forecast with
respect to thunderstorms across the region. Based on latest
satellite and radar trends, opted for storms to continue until 01-
02z at GSO, INT, RDU, RWI, with the highest confidence at RDU and
RWI. There is the potential that storms could linger longer than
currently anticipated, but we opted to dissipate storms by 02z given
nocturnal stabilization. RWI/RDU is likely to receive decent
rainfall from storms this evening. With that, there is the potential
for fog or stratus early Tue morning. For now, we have the highest
confidence at RWI, but stratus or fog may need to be introduced at
RDU as well. Light winds tonight will become south-southwest again
Tuesday afternoon. The high-res ensembles are not in agreement on
storm location and timing for Tuesday, but a similar scenario will
be in place. For now, opted for PROB30 groups during the favor
afternoon and evening time frame.

Outlook: Scattered to locally numerous convection will probably
result again each afternoon through mid-week, as a series of mid-
level disturbances overspread a persistent, Appalachian-lee/Piedmont
surface trough and eventually a backdoor front likely to settle into
and become quasi-stationary over NC Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. Morning stratus/mist may also result in areas that receive
convective rain the previous afternoon-evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ024-
025-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWS/GH
AVIATION...AK/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ024-025-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080000-
Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-
Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind
gusts and locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

Additionally, heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees
at times each afternoon this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ011-027-028-080000-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind
gusts and locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

Additionally, heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees
at times this week, especially on Tuesday and again Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>010-021>023-026-038-039-080000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Franklin-
Davidson-Randolph-
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind
gusts and locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ024-025-070230-
Durham NC-Orange NC-
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES
THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 927 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hillsborough, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Carrboro, Mebane, Rougemont,
Efland, Eno River State Park, Gorman, and Parkwood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 163 and 182.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 156 and 162, and between Mile
Markers 259 and 280.
 the Durham Freeway between Mile Markers 3 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 7876 3593 7880 3588 7883 3587 7888
      3586 7908 3588 7923 3605 7926 3614 7926
      3624 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 254DEG 9KT 3600 7913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
937 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Knightdale        35.75N 78.52W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            powerlines down on houses near Hodge Rd.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Wake Forest        35.98N 78.51W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            large tree down on train tracks in wake
            forest.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
943 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Raleigh            35.80N 78.64W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            tree on powerlines on Duncan St.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
954 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW New Hope          35.78N 78.61W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            TREE FELL DOWN AND ITS BLOCKING THE ROADWAY
            ALONG NEW BERN AVE.

&&

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ025>027-041-042-070300-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-
1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NASH...CENTRAL
WAKE...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON...SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raleigh, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, Zebulon, Bunn, RDU International,
Morrisville, Knightdale, Wendell, and Rolesville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 283 and 291.
 Interstate 440 between Mile Markers 2 and 15.
 Interstate 540 between Mile Markers 0 and 24.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 20 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 7888 3600 7881 3598 7821 3570 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 247DEG 14KT 3588 7866

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA