Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
524 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on the plains this
  afternoon and early evening, with the strongest storms east of
  I-25.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over Aspen Acres
  fire through the late afternoon.

- Still enough lingering moisture for isolated, high based convection
  over the eastern mountains on Saturday, with lightning and gusty
  outflow winds a fire concern.

- Hot and dry conditions build Sunday into early next week, before
  moisture and thunderstorm chances potentially return to mainly
  areas along the Continental Divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate drier air within modest west to northwest flow aloft across
the Central Rockies, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery
indicating PWATs of 40-60% of normal across western Colorado and
PWATs running around 75-110 percent of normal across eastern Colorado
at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a minor embedded
shortwave translating across the eastern Great Basin, aiding in
shower/storm development across the Continental Divide at this time.
Regional radars are also indicating convection firing across Eastern
mountains at this time.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent
of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable
environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into
the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place. Main
storm threat will be the potential for wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief
heavy rainfall possible with the strongest storms. While some drier
air continues to work into south central and southeast Colorado,
can't rule out a few stronger cells producing locally heavy rainfall
across the Aspen Acres burn area. A Flash Flood Watch does remain in
place until 8 pm tonight, though suspect to may be taken down earlier,
as afternoon storms clear the I-25 Corridor.

Skies clear through the overnight hours with lows around seasonal levels
in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s across
the higher terrain.

Latest models continue to indicate upper level ridging building across
the Four Corners region which leads to modest north to northeast flow
aloft developing across the Central Rockies through the day tomorrow.
Despite building heights and warming aloft, there will be enough moisture
in place to support isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon, especially across the southeast mountains. Storms to be
mainly high based, producing more gusty outflow winds than measurable
rainfall. With the warming aloft, highs to warm as well, with readings
mainly in the 90s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain, and 80s to lower 90s across the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For Sunday and into early next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is
expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest
easterly flow developing across the Central Rockies. This will keep drier
air in place across eastern Colorado with latest models indicating a
slight increase in available moisture seeping into southwest and western
Colorado. The increase in available moisture will keep chances of high
based showers and storms across western portions of south central
Colorado, though do believe latest NBM pops are at tad high. At any rate,
while temperatures will be warm, the modest easterly flow will likely
keep temperatures from being "excessive" from July standards, though
will need to continue to monitor for possible heat advisories. In
addition, the warm and dry conditions will lead to increasing fire
danger once again, however, modest flow aloft will likely support only
spotty critical fire weather conditions across the district into
early next week.

Longer term models are starting to indicate differences on available
moisture return and location of said upper high for the middle to
end of next week, with the latest EC data indicating much less
storm potential with the upper high building back across the state
through the end of week, where as the GFS and NBM are indicating a
wetter solution with more available moisture across the state.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

KPUB...strong outflow boundary will be moving across the taf
site at the very beginning of this fcst pd. Some thunder is
nearby and we may even here a rumble of thunder between 00 and
01 UTC. Otherwise winds will quickly decrease between 01 and 02
UTC with the wind becoming light and diurnally driven
thereafter.

KCOS and KALS...

VFR next 24 hours with diurnal light wind flow. Some thunder
will be pushing off to the distance southeast at the very
beginning of this fcst vcnty KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH/MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
higher terrain through the late morning and afternoon, with storms
moving east into a more unstable atmosphere across the southeast
plains through the afternoon and evening. Initial impact concerns
will be the potential for flash flooding due to locally heavy
rainfall, mainly over the Aspen Acres burn scar, along with
outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning. The greatest potential
for burn scar flash flooding appears to be in the noon to 6 pm
time frame.

As storms move onto the plains during the afternoon, they will
increase in coverage and intensity, with some becoming strong to
severe to the east of I-25. The greatest chance of severe storms
will be over the far southeast plains, especially across Bent,
Prowers and Baca Counties, from late afternoon into early evening.
These storms may produce winds of 60 to 70 mph, hail up to one
inch in diameter, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.
Storms then move into northeastern New Mexico and western Kansas
through the evening, with clearing skies overnight across south
central and southeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly
over the eastern mountains and across the Pikes Peak region. Gusty
outflow winds, occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief
rainfall will be possible, with storms ending quickly by early
evening.

Warmer and drier conditions develop from Sunday through much of
next week, with some spotty critical fire weather conditions
possible over the mountains and San Luis Valley from Sunday into
Thursday. Moisture will slowly increase along the Continental
Divide by mid-week, with a gradual return of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ094-102245-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Trinchera, or 28 miles north of Des Moines, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10402 3727 10392 3716 10364 3700 10387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 308DEG 17KT 3717 10391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ089-102315-
Crowley County CO-
445 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 445 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Forder, or 42 miles north of La Junta, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Crowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10361 3851 10355 3838 10374 3852 10381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 305DEG 15KT 3857 10375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
450 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ074-087-088-093-094-102315-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
450 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
HUERFANO AND CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 450 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Model, or 22 miles east of
Trinidad, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Delhi, Model, Hoehne, Thatcher, Tyrone, and Trinchera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 10439 3718 10455 3753 10469 3766 10440
      3767 10389 3737 10372 3705 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 252DEG 7KT 3727 10412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
452 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ085-102315-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
452 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 452 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Truckton, or 26 miles northeast of Pueblo Airport,
moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10415 3856 10428 3873 10433 3871 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 192DEG 13KT 3860 10423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
519 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ085-102345-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
519 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 519 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Fountain, or 18 miles southeast of Colorado Springs.
This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Hanover, Ellicott, Schriever
Space Force Base, Security-Widefield, Peterson Space Force Base, and
Cimarron Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10436 3864 10468 3886 10475 3884 10438
      3873 10432 3862 10429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 230DEG 4KT 3866 10457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ086>088-093-094-110000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
HUERFANO...CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 23 miles northwest of
Thatcher to near Delhi to 12 miles east of Model. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Model, Delhi, Thatcher, and Tyrone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 10427 3775 10375 3733 10371 3719 10408
      3733 10436 3776 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 231DEG 12KT 3777 10435 3761 10399 3734 10400

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe