Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on the plains this
  afternoon and early evening, with the strongest storms east of
  I-25.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over Aspen Acres
  fire through the late afternoon.

- Still enough lingering moisture for isolated, high based convection
  over the eastern mountains on Saturday, with lightning and gusty
  outflow winds a fire concern.

- Hot and dry conditions build Sunday into early next week, before
  moisture and thunderstorm chances potentially return to mainly
  areas along the Continental Divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate drier air within modest west to northwest flow aloft across
the Central Rockies, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery
indicating PWATs of 40-60% of normal across western Colorado and
PWATs running around 75-110 percent of normal across eastern Colorado
at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a minor embedded
shortwave translating across the eastern Great Basin, aiding in
shower/storm development across the Continental Divide at this time.
Regional radars are also indicating convection firing across Eastern
mountains at this time.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent
of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable
environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into
the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place. Main
storm threat will be the potential for wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief
heavy rainfall possible with the strongest storms. While some drier
air continues to work into south central and southeast Colorado,
can't rule out a few stronger cells producing locally heavy rainfall
across the Aspen Acres burn area. A Flash Flood Watch does remain in
place until 8 pm tonight, though suspect to may be taken down earlier,
as afternoon storms clear the I-25 Corridor.

Skies clear through the overnight hours with lows around seasonal levels
in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s across
the higher terrain.

Latest models continue to indicate upper level ridging building across
the Four Corners region which leads to modest north to northeast flow
aloft developing across the Central Rockies through the day tomorrow.
Despite building heights and warming aloft, there will be enough moisture
in place to support isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon, especially across the southeast mountains. Storms to be
mainly high based, producing more gusty outflow winds than measurable
rainfall. With the warming aloft, highs to warm as well, with readings
mainly in the 90s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain, and 80s to lower 90s across the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For Sunday and into early next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is
expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest
easterly flow developing across the Central Rockies. This will keep drier
air in place across eastern Colorado with latest models indicating a
slight increase in available moisture seeping into southwest and western
Colorado. The increase in available moisture will keep chances of high
based showers and storms across western portions of south central
Colorado, though do believe latest NBM pops are at tad high. At any rate,
while temperatures will be warm, the modest easterly flow will likely
keep temperatures from being "excessive" from July standards, though
will need to continue to monitor for possible heat advisories. In
addition, the warm and dry conditions will lead to increasing fire
danger once again, however, modest flow aloft will likely support only
spotty critical fire weather conditions across the district into
early next week.

Longer term models are starting to indicate differences on available
moisture return and location of said upper high for the middle to
end of next week, with the latest EC data indicating much less
storm potential with the upper high building back across the state
through the end of week, where as the GFS and NBM are indicating a
wetter solution with more available moisture across the state.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms effecting the
terminals remains expected between the 20Z-02Z timeframe.
Threats at COS and PUB remain gusty outflow winds up to
45kts and brief heavy rainfall. Lesser chances of storms
affecting ALS, though did keep a prob30 for potential
of gusty outflow winds. Clearing skies through the late
evening and overnight hours, with generally light diurnal
winds at the terminals through the end of this taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
higher terrain through the late morning and afternoon, with storms
moving east into a more unstable atmosphere across the southeast
plains through the afternoon and evening. Initial impact concerns
will be the potential for flash flooding due to locally heavy
rainfall, mainly over the Aspen Acres burn scar, along with
outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning. The greatest potential
for burn scar flash flooding appears to be in the noon to 6 pm
time frame.

As storms move onto the plains during the afternoon, they will
increase in coverage and intensity, with some becoming strong to
severe to the east of I-25. The greatest chance of severe storms
will be over the far southeast plains, especially across Bent,
Prowers and Baca Counties, from late afternoon into early evening.
These storms may produce winds of 60 to 70 mph, hail up to one
inch in diameter, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.
Storms then move into northeastern New Mexico and western Kansas
through the evening, with clearing skies overnight across south
central and southeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly
over the eastern mountains and across the Pikes Peak region. Gusty
outflow winds, occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief
rainfall will be possible, with storms ending quickly by early
evening.

Warmer and drier conditions develop from Sunday through much of
next week, with some spotty critical fire weather conditions
possible over the mountains and San Luis Valley from Sunday into
Thursday. Moisture will slowly increase along the Continental
Divide by mid-week, with a gradual return of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
222 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-102100-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
222 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 222 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Calhan, or 27 miles northeast of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 10441 3902 10445 3909 10428 3893 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 256DEG 2KT 3899 10435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-102100-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
223 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monument, or 20 miles north of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 10465 3906 10488 3913 10491 3913 10467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 255DEG 3KT 3913 10482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-102115-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
243 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 24 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 10439 3907 10460 3913 10461 3913 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 258DEG 7KT 3911 10455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
254 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-085-102130-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
254 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Black Forest, or 13 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Colorado Springs, Falcon, and Black Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 10476 3903 10478 3910 10459 3891 10457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 264DEG 9KT 3900 10469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-102130-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
257 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 257 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Calhan, or 31 miles southwest of Limon, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 10406 3897 10405 3899 10423 3908 10427
      3913 10411 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 258DEG 17KT 3903 10418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

COZ084-085-102130-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 300 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yoder, or 32 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10405 3881 10406 3891 10431 3898 10430
      3898 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 279DEG 12KT 3893 10423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe