Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
513 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again
  Friday afternoon, east of the mountains.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas,
  particularly around the Aspen Acres fire.

- Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with
  moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor
embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across
Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total
Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into
Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across
Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of
normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the
Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm.

For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of
scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable
environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into
the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with
the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western
Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE
in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms
across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in
diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While
some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into
western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest
westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally
heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8
pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with
convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains
within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at
to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across
the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain.

Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the
region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in
place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in
place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res
models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into
the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon,
increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the
eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a
marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture
and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another
risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area,
leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners
and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and
drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to
northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the
region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few
showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon,
though convection would be mainly high based, producing more gusty
outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern
for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower
100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher
terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns
valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across
the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being
the middle of summer.

For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high
and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper
Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern
Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across
western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern
Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing
across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado.
While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and
flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire
weather conditions developing across the region through the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Friday early afternoon with
light winds. There are a few showers across western portions of
the San Luis Valley, but confidence in one hitting the terminal
is low through 02z this evening. Westerly wind will increase by
early afternoon and showers and thunderstorms could impact the
terminal through the afternoon with gusty outflow winds being
the main concern.

KCOS and KPUB...showers have come to an end at both terminals
for the evening, with VFR conditions prevail overnight into
Friday early afternoon. Another round of afternoon
thunderstorms forecast for both terminals, with gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-101730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
higher terrain by midday, before moving into a more unstable atmosphere
across the southeast plains. Initial impact concerns will be flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall, mainly over burn scar areas, along
with outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning.

As storms pass over the plains, they will increase in coverage and
intensity, with some becoming strong to severe. The best chances
of severe storms will be generally east of the I-25 Corridor
along the Palmer Divide into Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties late
this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing
outflow winds in excess of 60 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter,
frequent lightning, and briefly heavy rainfall. Storms are expected
to move into western Kansas through the evening, with clearing
skies overnight across south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of afternoon showers and storms is expected on Friday.
Main impact concerns will be burn scar flash flooding, gusty outflow
winds, some small hail, and lightning. Best chances for strong to
severe storms will be along and east of the I-25 corridor, with
chances increasing further east.

Warmer and drier conditions will set in this weekend, with some
spotty critical fire weather conditions expected over the San Luis
Valley each afternoon. Moisture will then make a slow return to the
mountains next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/31

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NE Blende             38.28N 104.50W
07/09/2026  M67 MPH          Pueblo             CO   AWOS

            AWOS station KPUB Pueblo Airport.

&&

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ086-088-093-094-092330-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
459 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
MDT...

At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delhi, or 38 miles southwest of La Junta, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Delhi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 10420 3764 10424 3769 10421 3776 10399
      3767 10391 3755 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 262DEG 8KT 3765 10411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
521 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ089-093-095-097-092345-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
521 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTERO...WESTERN
KIOWA...EAST CENTRAL CROWLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH
545 PM MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Wild Horse Point to near
Arlington to 8 miles west of Blue Lake. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haswell, Blue Lake, and Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 10304 3822 10352 3842 10353 3853 10347
      3853 10317 3861 10317 3861 10297 3838 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 272DEG 33KT 3854 10335 3842 10334 3824 10340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

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