Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For Today, scattered storms over CONTDVD region, isold elsewhere.

- Flash flood threat increases CONTDVD tomorrow (WED), with
  isold/sctd storms elsewhere. Continued hot for the plains.

- Flash flood threat increase for all of the burn scars THU and
  FRI. Biggest concern is THU.

- Hot with less POPS for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the rest of today, it will continue to be hot over the region
with 100s over the lower Ark Rvr Valley with M/U90s over rest of
plains. 85-90 over the valleys. As for precip, very isold showers
over the plains with isolated storms over the S Mtns/valleys.
Overall best chance of showers will be over the San Juans where
scattered activity is anticipated later this afternoon/early evening.

For tomorrow, with winds will dramatically shift throughout the
column. Winds over the last week or so have been from a deep
easterly component. However the ridge aloft pushes off to the
southeast, and flow becomes southwesterly at all levels for most of
tomorrow. This will push the monsoon plume eastward and we will see
a much better chance of storms across most of the region, especially
along the CONTDVD, the San Luis Valley the Pikes Peak region
and the greater EL Paso county region. Some of the rain with
this activity tomorrow could be heavy. Flash Flooding threat
will increase tomorrow, especially for the willow burn area.

It will continue to be hot across the plains tomorrow and 100s
are likely once again from Pueblo east to the KS border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday will be our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
as the monsoon flow will be enhanced by a mid level disturbance
in the moderate NW Flow aloft. The Flash flood threat this day
will be high at any of the burn sites, but the Aspen Acres will
especially be under the gun due to the moist unstable upslope
flow which will affect the mtns/plains interface

For Friday, scattered to likely showers and storms will continue
over the mtns and valleys, but the airmass over the plains will
likely be more stable and only isold showers and storms are
expected. The rain could be heavy and burn scar flash flooding
threat will continue. Friday should be the "coolest" day across
the fcst area.

For the weekend...flow aloft weakens. Quite a bit of moisture will
be trapped under the ridge that is fcst to rebuild over the region
and we will see scattered storms will continue over the mtns, but
over the plains it is likely to be dry and it will once again get
quite hot with temps getting well into the 100s over a good part of
the plains.

Next week it will be a bit cooler be a bit cooler with showers and
storms over the mtns/valleys and isold storms plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Enhanced easterly winds will continue at KCOS and KPUB before
decreasing overnight. Winds will increase out of the southeast
Wednesday afternoon at all three terminals with thunderstorms
developing over the mountains and pushing off into the valleys
and adjacent plains after 21-22z. KALS and KCOS will have the
best chance of -TSRA on station, and will carry this in a prob30
group with gusty outflow winds. Chance for -TSRA at KPUB still
looks low, so will keep it as VCSH for now.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-221715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The plains for the rest of today will likely remain dry.

For the southern mountains and san Luis valley, only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected.

Over the mountains along the Continental Divide, scatted shower
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Brief periods of heavy rain will be possible. The
best chance of storms will be over the San Juan mountains.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The burn scar flash flooding threat is going to significantly
increase across the region during the next several days as the
monsoon plume combines with an upper level disturbance to bring
the threat of heavy rains to the burn scar regions.

The central mountain region, including the Willow burn area and
the Chalk Bluffs region, will see a threat of thunderstorm
producing heavy rain tomorrow, Thursday. and Friday.

The Aspen Acres burn area will see isolated to scattered showers
and storms tomorrow afternoon, with a much better chance of
thunderstorms producing heavy rain for Thursday and Friday.

Residents in and around the Aspen Acres and Willow burn scars are
STRONGLY urged to keep abreast of the latest weather forecast for
their immediate areas during the next several days as the threat
of dangerous flash flooding will be on the increase.

Over the remainder of the region, scattered showers and storms
will be possible on Wednesday over the Continental Divide region,
Over the remainder of the region showers and storms will be
isolated. Mainly dry weather is expected east of I-25 tomorrow.

For Thursday and Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur over the entire region. Some of the rain is expected to be
heavy. One or two strong thunderstorms are expected as wind shear
will be increasing over the region.

Drier weather will return for the weekend, although there will
still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the entire region. with the best chance over
the mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

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