Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Pueblo, CO

428 
WGUS75 KPUB 222100
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC015-222215-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260722T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

At 300 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mainly rural areas of Central Chaffee County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 10624 3873 10627 3870 10627 3866 10625
      3868 10621 3870 10619 3871 10617 3874 10614
      3875 10616

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Simcoe

263 
WGUS75 KPUB 222218
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC015-222228-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260722T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
418 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for a portion of
central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 10624 3873 10627 3870 10627 3866 10625
      3868 10621 3870 10619 3871 10617 3874 10614
      3875 10616

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watches in effect, today for the Willow burn scar and
Chalk Cliffs areas, tomorrow for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Flash flooding threat continues through the end of the week as
showers and storms become more widespread.

- Hot temperatures continue, with a bit less moisture for this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

We will finally see a noticeable shift in our wind pattern across
the region today. As the center of the upper high continues shifting
east and slightly south, winds throughout the column will take on a
southerly to southwesterly component. This will allow for better
monsoon moisture to move east and into the Rockies. By late morning,
precipitation is expected to form across some of the Continental
Divide. Through the rest of the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
will spread to the rest of the higher terrain as well, with some
pockets of heavy rainfall possible. We will need to keep a close eye
on areas susceptible to flash flooding, mainly the Willow burn area.
Have issued a Flood Watch for the areas surrounding the Willow burn
scar and the Chalk Cliffs. Meanwhile, the plains will be hot and
mostly dry throughout the afternoon, with high temperatures hitting
low triple digits. The higher terrain will stay in the 80s to low-
90s.

This evening into early tonight, a shortwave disturbance will pass
through the flow aloft to our northeast. This will send a cold front
south over the eastern plains overnight into early Thursday morning.
As it goes, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will spread
over the eastern plains, traveling south-southeast and dissipating
early in the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday...

A shortwave trough will pass through on Thursday, giving us plenty
of forcing for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Greatest
coverage will once again be over the higher terrain, where
widespread precipitation will cause flash flooding concerns across
all of our burn scars and other vulnerable areas. Meanwhile, another
incoming front will spread precip to the eastern plains later in the
day and into the evening hours. This will cause a complex, hazardous
scenario for the Aspen Acres fire, due to a combination of large
scale monsoon moisture over the mountains, and post-frontal
upsloping over the plains. Winds and the placement of heavy rainfall
will be complex over the fire and surrounding areas of the
mountains/plains interface. As such, have issued a Flash Flood
Watch.

Friday...

Activity lessens a bit on Friday, with the high pressure
reorganizing over the Four Corners. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will remain plentiful over the mountains during the afternoon,
meaning another day of moderate to heavy rainfall, but overall the
eastern plains appear more stable, with only some isolated showers
anticipated. Even so, burn scar flash flood concerns will continue.
Meanwhile, temperatures will drop a few degrees, but calling the day
'cooler' may be a bit of a stretch, since we'll still be seeing mid-
high 90s over the eastern plains and high-80s in the valleys.

This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for
storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture
will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going
over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with
triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance
suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot)
pattern as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into the early evening hours at all 3 taf sites,
KPUB, KALS and KCOS, but overall best chance will be at KCOS and
KALS.

By early evening....AOA 02 UTC, a cold front will push south
across the KCOS and KPUB areas and gusty north winds and showers
will be possible with the fropa and will last 2-3 hours.

By later this evening into early tomorrow morning anticipate VFR
conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ059>061.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH/PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-231700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight across the region. Storms will form over
the Continental Divide, spreading to the rest of the higher
terrain by later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
will also be possible over the Pikes Peak Region and the mountain
valleys.

These showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
producing flash flooding. Over the last few days, monsoon rains
have caused quite a bit of flash flooding along the west slope,
and these heavy monsoon showers will affect the central mountains
and San Juan region this afternoon and evening. Areas that are
particularly susceptible to flash flooding will be the Willow
fire and the Chalk Cliffs area.

Over the far eastern plains, one or two stronger thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and storms will be present each afternoon and evening
through Friday. Best coverage will be over the mountains, but more
widespread precipitation will cover the entire area on Thursday.
Flash flooding will be possible each day, mainly over burn scars and
other susceptible areas. One or two strong thunderstorms may also be
possible.

Hot weather will return to the region this weekend into early
next week. Temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will range
from 100 to 107 over a good part of the southeastern plains. Over
the mountains, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible, with locally heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ084-085-221845-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM MDT...

At 1216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 18 miles northeast of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10449 3898 10440 3893 10463 3908 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 074DEG 4KT 3903 10459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe