Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Pueblo, CO

528 
WGUS75 KPUB 222013
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
213 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC027-101-222023-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-260722T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
213 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR IS
CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 10507 3804 10511 3810 10508 3812 10502
      3812 10497 3811 10493 3808 10487 3804 10483
      3803 10491 3802 10501

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
118 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood concerns for the susceptible flooding areas (Chalk
Bluffs and Aspen Acres/Willow Burn Scars) high today and tomorrow.

- Aspen Acres burn area could see gusty northeast winds this
evening which could initiate additional thunderstorms over the burn
area.

- Becoming very hot SAT-SUN-MON >>> 100 to 107F a good part of
  plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Note: AA = Aspen Acres burn area

Rest if Today...

Water vapor imagery pretty much tells the story for the short-term
as the monsoon plume is bulging eastward and a well defined
shortwave is spinning over the 4 corners region.

Main concern will be flash flooding, Primary area of concern will be
along the CONTDVD region. Last several day monsoon plume has caused
several incidents of flash flooding on the west slope and this plume
is now advection east. Some of this moisture will push as far east
as the plains, and will have to keep an eye on the Aspen Acres (AA)
burn scar for later this afternoon. Showers over the s mtns are not
expected to be as extensive as along the CONTDVD, but it will not
take much to get flooding over the AA fire.

For this evening...

Showers and storms will likely continue well into the evening and
overnight hours across the region. Best chance for storm during the
overnight time period will be over the mtns and valleys, but showers
and storms should linger over the plains this evening. Locally heavy
rain will be possible all areas during the evening hours. This
moisture is associated with the monsoon plume along with a weak
disturbance in the developing westerly mid level flow over the
region.

A boundary is fcst to move across the region during the early
evening hours and this will bring a period of gusty north to
northeast winds to the plains. especially along the I-25 corridor.
These gusty winds will likely impact the AA burn area during the mid
evening (8-9 pm) time frame. There is a possibility that this
outflow boundary could initiate thunderstorm over the AA fire area
during this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tomorrow

Considerable showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow across
all of the region. Favorable forcing aloft associated with the
monsoon plume will allow for locally heavy rain showers over the
region. Guidance indicates that we will see a much better chance of
heavier showers over the AA fire, and a flash flood watch is in
effect for this burn area tomorrow. The activity should push out
onto the plains by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Temperatures over the far eastern plains should be quite hot
tomorrow as temps will reach to around 104. Along the I-25 corridor,
higher clouds should move in relatively early which will temper the
temperatures a bit (U90s).

Friday...

Max temperatures should be a 2-3F cooler  than on Thursday. Plains
will likely be stable this day and expect most of the showers and
storms to remain in the mountains. Best overall showers will be over
the southern Sangres and San Juans. However we still could see some
locally heavy showers, and the wrong showers over the wrong area
could cause flash flooding over the burn scars.

SAT-SUN-MON....

HOT. Widespread 100+ readings over the plains with mid/upper 90s
over the remainder of the plains, San Luis valley will likely see
temps around 90F. The mid level heat dome aloft will be over the
region so winds will be light. Moisture will be "stuck" under this
high pressure aloft and there will be storms over the mtns, and if
they develop, they will not move much, so flash flooding will be a
concern over the high country.

Looking at the statistical guidance, it does show a SLOW cooling
trend through next week. My confidence in this happening is not too
high as this trend has been shown in the past and it has not
occurred. However, we can always hope for the best. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into the early evening hours at all 3 taf sites,
KPUB, KALS and KCOS, but overall best chance will be at KCOS and
KALS.

By early evening....AOA 02 UTC, a cold front will push south
across the KCOS and KPUB areas and gusty north winds and showers
will be possible with the fropa and will last 2-3 hours.

By later this evening into early tomorrow morning anticipate VFR
conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ059>061.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-231700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight across the region. Storms will form over
the Continental Divide, spreading to the rest of the higher
terrain by later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
will also be possible over the Pikes Peak Region and the mountain
valleys.

These showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
producing flash flooding. Over the last few days, monsoon rains
have caused quite a bit of flash flooding along the west slope,
and these heavy monsoon showers will affect the central mountains
and San Juan region this afternoon and evening. Areas that are
particularly susceptible to flash flooding will be the Willow
fire and the Chalk Cliffs area.

Over the far eastern plains, one or two stronger thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and storms will be present each afternoon and evening
through Friday. Best coverage will be over the mountains, but more
widespread precipitation will cover the entire area on Thursday.
Flash flooding will be possible each day, mainly over burn scars and
other susceptible areas. One or two strong thunderstorms may also be
possible.

Hot weather will return to the region this weekend into early
next week. Temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will range
from 100 to 107 over a good part of the southeastern plains. Over
the mountains, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible, with locally heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ084-085-221845-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM MDT...

At 1216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 18 miles northeast of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10449 3898 10440 3893 10463 3908 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 074DEG 4KT 3903 10459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe