Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
135 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely through tonight
along and south of Interstate 70 with lower probabilities for
them producing hazardous weather. The rest of the forecast
outlook remains unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly south
of I-70 today may pose all-hazard threats, with low probability
flood threat lingering overnight.

2) Low probability thunderstorm chances linger Thursday into
Saturday morning amid the anonymously warm environment, with a
non-zero threat for localized flash flooding. Widespread
thunderstorm are likely Saturday ahead of a cold front with low
probability for all-hazard threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest satellite and surface analysis places the surface cold
front along the I-70 corridor in eastern OH and stretching
through the Pittsburgh metro. For locations north of this
current positioning, the expectation is for periods of light to
occasionally moderate rain showers favoring the overnight period
(coinciding a bit to northward lift of the boundary as a warm
front) with slightly below average temperature seeing minimal
diurnal heating.

The focus is for locations south of the boundary where
environmental conditions favor storm development and low
probability severe threats through this evening. Specifically,
SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, 40kts effective shear, and
marginal mid-level dry air lends toward a marginal damaging wind
and hail threat while relatively high LCL heights limits the
tornadic potential. Storms are already developing and are
expected to continue to develop ahead of a weak, embedded
shortwave set to cross between 3pm-9pm EDT tonight. While the
loss of heating should see severe threat probabilities fall
overnight,localized flash flooding concerns continue as
convection persists into early Friday morning ahead of the wave
and north of the lifting warm front. Storm motion near 40mph in
such environment generally precludes flooding concerns, but
flooding threats should be monitored given antecedent wet
grounds for portions of eastern OH to southwest PA plus PWATs
near the daily max (an indicator of potential efficient/heavy
rain).

Drier conditions return by Thursday afternoon as the warm front
lifts north of the region, creating a lull in overall areal
threats.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Thursday into Friday, the upper Ohio River Valley region is
favored to remain within an anomalously warm and moist
environment between southeast CONUS ridging and central CONUS
shortwave movement. Limited lift and warm mid-level air
precludes much severe concerns but PWATs hovering around the
95th percentiles and weaker storm motions over fairly saturated
grounds suggests a low probability flash flood threat remains IF
storm development can occur. At this time, any convective
activity is likely to be isolated until better forcing/lift
arrives Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of a warm
frontal boundary.

The more likely hazardous threat remains attached to the pending
cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday with high confidence
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary. Subtle timing
differences for this line of storms creates uncertainty in the
degree of severe hazard concerns, which will be generally
connected to a Saturday afternoon/early evening arrival (versus
some model depictions arriving overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning). Flooding threats appear low due to progressive frontal
movement leading to 24-hour mean QPF values just under 1";
however, any flooding or further saturation of the ground from
previous day(s) convection could reduce flash flood guidance
while 90th+ percentile PWATs continue to increase the potential
for efficient, high rainfall rates.

Dry slotting should produce a sharp cutoff in storm activity
after the front Sunday, with a pattern shift the lends to near
or below average temperature and low probability rain/snow
showers for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front is currently located south of I-70 in Ohio,
wraps northward between PIT and AGC and then exits our region
north of IDI. The front divides our region into IFR and LIFR to
the north and a mix of VFR to MVFR to the south. The last breath
of showers are just now clearing FKL/DUJ but we are already
beginning to see convection fire south of I-70.

Storms remain likely for MGW and ZZV. Further north PROB30
groups have been included with some uncertainty in which areas
remain showers with embedded thunderstorms and which areas see
discrete storms. Storms south of I-70 can become heavy to severe
and bring damaging wind gusts. CIGs and VIS will degrade in any
thunderstorms and are expected to come down some in the
overnight hours.

The front is expected to move northward again this evening and
possibly stall along the eastern ridges into Thursday, allowing
for continued shower activity through the overnight hours,
before the area dries out tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Restriction chances continue through Thursday and
Friday with the stalled boundary. A crossing cold front Saturday
returns severe weather chances, but eventually clears the
region out and promotes drier weather behind it beginning Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...AK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-021930-
Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Armstrong-
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and western
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ021-073-074-077-078-021930-
Allegheny-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania and
western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ059-068-069-PAZ029-031-075-076-WVZ003-004-012-021-509>514-021930-
Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Washington-Greene-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary threats. There is also
a Marginal Risk of flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ002-021930-
Brooke-
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern panhandle of
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary
threats. There is also a Marginal Risk of flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039-040-048>050-057-058-WVZ001-021930-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-
Guernsey-Hancock-
327 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
240 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     Hail             2 SSE Summerfield       39.77N 81.32W
04/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Monroe             OH   Public

&&

Milcarek

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Hail             3 WNW Lewisville        39.78N 81.27W
04/01/2026  E1.75 Inch       Monroe             OH   Public

            Observed along Bracken Ridge Rd.

&&

Kramar

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Hail             1 SW Summerfield        39.78N 81.36W
04/01/2026  E1.75 Inch       Noble              OH   Public

            Size estimated from social media.

&&

Milcarek

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
345 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Lewisville        39.78N 81.27W
03/11/2026                   Monroe             OH   Public

            Trees down along Bracken Ridge Rd.

&&

Kramar

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     Hail             3 SSE Summerfield       39.76N 81.32W
04/01/2026  M0.75 Inch       Monroe             OH   Public

            Reported off Zerger Quarry Rd.

&&

Kramar