Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
135 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely through tonight
along and south of Interstate 70 with lower probabilities for
them producing hazardous weather. The rest of the forecast
outlook remains unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly south
of I-70 today may pose all-hazard threats, with low probability
flood threat lingering overnight.

2) Low probability thunderstorm chances linger Thursday into
Saturday morning amid the anonymously warm environment, with a
non-zero threat for localized flash flooding. Widespread
thunderstorm are likely Saturday ahead of a cold front with low
probability for all-hazard threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest satellite and surface analysis places the surface cold
front along the I-70 corridor in eastern OH and stretching
through the Pittsburgh metro. For locations north of this
current positioning, the expectation is for periods of light to
occasionally moderate rain showers favoring the overnight period
(coinciding a bit to northward lift of the boundary as a warm
front) with slightly below average temperature seeing minimal
diurnal heating.

The focus is for locations south of the boundary where
environmental conditions favor storm development and low
probability severe threats through this evening. Specifically,
SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, 40kts effective shear, and
marginal mid-level dry air lends toward a marginal damaging wind
and hail threat while relatively high LCL heights limits the
tornadic potential. Storms are already developing and are
expected to continue to develop ahead of a weak, embedded
shortwave set to cross between 3pm-9pm EDT tonight. While the
loss of heating should see severe threat probabilities fall
overnight,localized flash flooding concerns continue as
convection persists into early Friday morning ahead of the wave
and north of the lifting warm front. Storm motion near 40mph in
such environment generally precludes flooding concerns, but
flooding threats should be monitored given antecedent wet
grounds for portions of eastern OH to southwest PA plus PWATs
near the daily max (an indicator of potential efficient/heavy
rain).

Drier conditions return by Thursday afternoon as the warm front
lifts north of the region, creating a lull in overall areal
threats.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Thursday into Friday, the upper Ohio River Valley region is
favored to remain within an anomalously warm and moist
environment between southeast CONUS ridging and central CONUS
shortwave movement. Limited lift and warm mid-level air
precludes much severe concerns but PWATs hovering around the
95th percentiles and weaker storm motions over fairly saturated
grounds suggests a low probability flash flood threat remains IF
storm development can occur. At this time, any convective
activity is likely to be isolated until better forcing/lift
arrives Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of a warm
frontal boundary.

The more likely hazardous threat remains attached to the pending
cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday with high confidence
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary. Subtle timing
differences for this line of storms creates uncertainty in the
degree of severe hazard concerns, which will be generally
connected to a Saturday afternoon/early evening arrival (versus
some model depictions arriving overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning). Flooding threats appear low due to progressive frontal
movement leading to 24-hour mean QPF values just under 1";
however, any flooding or further saturation of the ground from
previous day(s) convection could reduce flash flood guidance
while 90th+ percentile PWATs continue to increase the potential
for efficient, high rainfall rates.

Dry slotting should produce a sharp cutoff in storm activity
after the front Sunday, with a pattern shift the lends to near
or below average temperature and low probability rain/snow
showers for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front is currently located south of I-70 in Ohio,
wraps northward between PIT and AGC and then exits our region
north of IDI. The front divides our region into IFR and LIFR to
the north and a mix of VFR to MVFR to the south. The last breath
of showers are just now clearing FKL/DUJ but we are already
beginning to see convection fire south of I-70.

Storms remain likely for MGW and ZZV. Further north PROB30
groups have been included with some uncertainty in which areas
remain showers with embedded thunderstorms and which areas see
discrete storms. Storms south of I-70 can become heavy to severe
and bring damaging wind gusts. CIGs and VIS will degrade in any
thunderstorms and are expected to come down some in the
overnight hours.

The front is expected to move northward again this evening and
possibly stall along the eastern ridges into Thursday, allowing
for continued shower activity through the overnight hours,
before the area dries out tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Restriction chances continue through Thursday and
Friday with the stalled boundary. A crossing cold front Saturday
returns severe weather chances, but eventually clears the
region out and promotes drier weather behind it beginning Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...AK

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