Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
823 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas north of Pittsburgh until
1AM

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow-moving cold front will drop south slowly across the
region overnight and stall near the Pennsylvania and West
Virginia border on Wednesday. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected, with severe weather concerns
tonight, and again during the day Wednesday.

2) The slow-moving front and deep moisture could lead to heavy
rainfall totals tonight north of Pittsburgh, as well as longer-
term hydrologic concerns into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest surface analysis shows relatively low MLCAPE values in
the area, but a healthy 45-50kts of effective shear ahead of a
cold front dropping south across the region this evening. The
timeframe for the greatest potential for severe weather will be
before midnight and mainly north of Pittsburgh. All hazards
will be possible, but damaging wind gusts are the primary threat
as thermodynamic profiles look to support surging outflows that
could force upscale growth into bowing line segments. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively high LCLs so TORs will be the
lesser threat. With frontal passage overnight, the overall
environment will be less favorable for strong/severe convection,
with lesser instability and effective shear. Any lingering
severe potential should begin to wane after around 4am as
frontal progression slows and lapse rates trend more moist
adiabatic (perhaps even isothermal or weakly stable near the
surface). However, models continue to show the frontal boundary
stalling near the PA/WV border tomorrow. If this occurs, it will
serve as a focus for additional convective development during
the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Favorable low- level
moisture (dewpoints around 60), around 35 knots of deep shear,
and steepening lapse rates may support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Also of concern is the potential for heavy rainfall. This is
covered in Key Message 2 below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

While the first round of convection noted above will certainly be
capable of producing locally heavy downpours, it is the arrival of
the cold front that could provide near-term concerns for heavy
rainfall near and north of US-422, where WPC has placed a marginal
(1 of 4) risk level of excessive rainfall. East-west training of
storms is possible as the front advances, and with precipitable
water values above 95th percentile for this time of year,
multiple downpours are possible in any one location. HREF
probabilities of more than an inch of rain in the risk area are
between 40 and 60 percent, and the environment is certainly
capable of producing 2 inches or a bit more in the extreme
cases. That said, hydrologic issues through Wednesday morning
are likely to be quite isolated, especially since the heaviest
rainfall from recent days fell to the south of US-422.

The stalled front noted in Key Message 1 likely lifts back
north of the region as a warm front Thursday, spurred on by a
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes 500mb shortwave. However, waves
of surface low pressure along the westward extension of the
boundary may allow it to waver back and forth in our region into
the weekend. Ensembles continue to favor heavier rainfall
totals well to our west where the tap of Gulf moisture will be
strongest. However, with precipitable water values generally
remaining at or above the 95th percentile through at least
Saturday, there may be some opportunities for at least localized
heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding concerns.
Long-term river level concerns, according to MMEFS, may be more
focused on the Allegheny basin, where potential heavy rain over
the next 24 hours, plus any additional events into the weekend,
could lead to elevated stages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A crossing cold front overnight will result in showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Some could be locally severe
with damaging winds the biggest threat, mainly before midnight.
Showers and storms will slowly trend south overnight with the
frontal boundary, down to near MGW by the morning. Can't rule
out some embedded thunderstorms early in the AM with frontal
passage, as there may be some lingering elevated instability.
However, the severe threat should diminish after midnight as
lapse rates and deep- layer shear weakens.

The front is forecast to stall roughly near the PA/WV border
this morning. North of the front, winds shift to northwesterly
and scattered shower activity continues, but generally with a
decreasing intensity. Closer to the front (namely at MGW),
heavier showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue or redevelop on Wednesday in the vicinity of the
pseudo stationary boundary.

Outlook...
The mentioned front will transition north as a warm front
Wednesday night into Thursday with restrictions and rain.
Another crossing cold front will maintain restriction and rain
potential late Thursday night through Saturday as it stalls
across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cermak/88
AVIATION...Cermak/88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
704 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

OHZ040-041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-077-078-WVZ001-012315-
Carroll-Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Armstrong-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Hancock-
704 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight
ahead of a cold front. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
although large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall
is also possible in the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039-012315-
Tuscarawas-
704 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight
ahead of a cold front. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
although large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall
is also possible in the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-012-021-
509>514-012315-
Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-
Monroe-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
704 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight
ahead of a cold front. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
although large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is another Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening along the cold front
as it stalls. The strongest storms could contain damaging wind gusts
and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
924 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sharon                  41.23N 80.51W
03/31/2026                   Mercer             PA   911 Call Center

            Large trees on wires.

&&

WM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
936 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Eau Claire          41.11N 79.80W
03/31/2026                   Butler             PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on wires.

&&

WM