Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms this afternoon across western Wisconsin. Less
certainty on the threat across eastern Minnesota, although the
overall threat continues to look lower.

- Large hail & damaging wind are the main hazards with the
strongest thunderstorms today. A tornado or two can not be ruled out.

- Much cooler Thursday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thunderstorms are developing across far-southeast Minnesota & have
quickly become severe as they move into western Wisconsin. The main
threat area over the next 2-4 hours will be across western Wisconsin
as these cells continue to move eastwards & new cells develop &
intensify. Large hail (a few 2"+ hailstones possible) & damaging
wind are expected to be the primary threat with the storms across
western Wisconsin this afternoon. Helicity values (low-level spin)
have trended lower than expected across eastern Minnesota & western
Wisconsin, so the tornado threat is lower but still-non-zero.

Overall, we've seen a general downtrend in our severe weather event
compared to this morning & especially forecasts from the last two
days. The thunderstorm complex overnight did act to reduce our
instability this morning, but the main culprit is the earlier onset
of thunderstorms late this morning early this afternoon - before
instability really peaks this afternoon. The main trend to monitor
this afternoon, & most uncertainty in the short-term forecast, will
be how much cumulus development we see back behind the ongoing
thunderstorms across central Minnesota. As of early afternoon, we've
seen the most new cumulus development across south-central Minnesota
where a few showers have been struggling to further intensify.
Current mesoanalysis across the region shows mid-level lapse rates
on the order of 6.5-7 C/km, which are not exactly favorable for
"explosive" development despite the very rich low-level moisture &
surface-based CAPE values around 2500 J/Kg. Our 18Z weather balloon
will give us a better view of the atmosphere, especially
capping/lapse rates aloft, & allow for abetter evaluation of the
severe potential across east-central, south-central, & southeast MN
through the rest of the afternoon. For now though, any threat looks
to be more isolated with hail & a few wind gusts the primary threat.

The ongoing severe storms across western Wisconsin will exit our area
by 2-3 PM, & then we wait & see how much additional development we
get into late afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests
that we could see a second round of storms initiate across far-
southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin. If these storms develop,
then we could see the threat for severe weather continue across
western Wisconsin into early evening. Elsewhere, not expecting much
more than an isolated thunderstorm through the rest of the afternoon
with tonight looking quiet.

Drier air moves into the region tonight into tomorrow morning,
likely mitigating the threat for fog overnight although some patchy
mist is possible in low-lying areas. Widespread rain showers look
likely Thursday as we end up in the deformation region northwest of
the surface low, which will help keep our temperatures much cooler
in the low 70s. A much cooler Canadian airmass then moves into the
region behind todays cold front & lingers through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies near 10 degrees below
normal over the weekend & into early next week, meaning we'll see
much more comfortable highs in the low to mid 70s & lows in the 40s
& 50s. A few chances for precipitation are possible but little or
now chance for heavy rain or strong thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Further west, additional
thunderstorm development is possible, but there is a high amount
of uncertainty. Have added a PROB30 for TSRA at KSTC and
adjusted timing of the PROB30 at KMSP. Will likely need a
handful of AMDs through this afternoon when/if storms start to
fire. Winds will briefly go westerly this evening with some
gusts around 20kts before returning to the south/southwest at
10kts or less.

KMSP...Watching storms trying to develop near KMKT. As mentioned
above, the uncertainty in this forecast is high due to the
scattered nature of these storms and if storms initialize across
western Minnesota in the next few hours. We have just sent up a
special balloon to help give us a better idea of our environment
as we head into mid afternoon. Storm chances decrease quickly
after 00-02z, with winds going light and variable. Tomorrow,
showers return by late morning with southerly/southwesterly
winds around 10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
301 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112015-
Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
301 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible primarily along and east of the
I-35 corridor. Severe thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-112015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
301 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     Hail             St. Croix Falls         45.41N 92.64W
06/10/2026  M0.88 Inch       Polk               WI   Public

&&

BED/EMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ044-110015-
Mille Lacs MN-
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MILLE LACS COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Onamia, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rum River State Forest, Mille Lacs Kathio State Park, Onamia,
  Bayview, Wahkon, Father Hennepin State Park and Isle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9377 4618 9343 4598 9343 4598 9352
      4599 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 260DEG 21KT 4603 9368

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPG