Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Twin Cities, MN

812 
WWUS53 KMPX 101126
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIC035-101136-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260610T1130Z/
Eau Claire WI-
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 AM CDT FOR EASTERN
EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for a
portion of west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9136 4460 9137 4486 9113 4486 9092
      4460 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 239DEG 38KT 4463 9117

$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms likely tonight. Damaging wind is the
  primary threat, especially across western and central
  Minnesota.

- Another round of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. All
  severe modes are possible including damaging wind, large hail,
  and tornadoes. Greatest severe threat favors eastern
  Minnesota/western Wisconsin Wed afternoon into Wed evening.

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures forecast for Thursday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The next 24 hours will feature the potential for multiple rounds
of severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest. Current
regional radar mosaic highlights a line of thunderstorms
stretching from Winnipeg south through the Dakotas and into
northern Nebraska. A decaying MCS moving northeast out of
Nebraska has begun to merge with the easterly moving convection
over SoDak. These storms will then track ENE into SW/W MN
shortly by 1 AM and continue through the MPX forecast area
tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect across
portions of western MN until 4 AM. Locations further east may
need an additional watch, but that will be determined at a later
time.

Tonight's severe threat comes in the form of a squall line that
is driven by a potent 50+ knot low level jet. The squall line
will have a reservoir of abundant instability to tap into with
guidance suggesting 2000+ J/Kg MLCAPE present over W & C MN. A
quick mesoanalysis highlights 1500 J/Kg DCAPE over W MN, 35-40
kts of effective wind shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates.
While the environment will gradually wane, the dynamics
associated with the LLJ should support a severe threat through
much of tonight. Damaging wind gusts looks to be the main severe
weather hazard with the line of storms, but a few quick QLCS
tornadoes can't be ruled out within the line. The apex of the
squall line should track from W MN through E MN and into W WI by
daybreak. How much severe threat will the line have when it
makes it into the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin is difficult
to say, but there should be some severe potential despite the
early morning time frame.

This line has a history of producing severe wind gusts of 75+
MPH over SoDak earlier tonight and is moving into a more
favorable low level kinematic environment that short lived QLCS
tornadoes will be possible, especially over W MN. My immediate
concern is that the merger between the north-northeast moving
decaying MCS/MCV and the easterly moving squall will merge and
enhance the wind threat... at least initially across far E SD
and W MN.

On Wednesday, we'll dry out by mid-morning in the wake of the
MCS. How much convective debris is left over to limit the
atmospheric recovery will ultimately impact Wednesday
afternoon's severe weather potential. Guidance does limit how
much additional convection fires up through the morning hours,
allowing 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg MLCAPE to pool ahead of the
approaching cold front. This will support a higher end severe
weather environment with 40+ kts of bulk shear, sufficient lapse
rates, and favorable wind profile aloft. There are a few
questions that remain less certain. When and where will the
initial storms develop in the afternoon? Current thoughts are
for convection to fire early afternoon along I-35 before moving
into W WI. Initial storms will be supercells capable of all
severe modes including large to very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are all possible. A favorable environment for
tornadoes will be in place across W WI that will have the
potential for a few strong Tornadoes. Initial supercells will
quickly grow upscale into a linear complex that'll primarily
pose a damaging wind threat across W WI. Severe threat wraps up
late Wednesday evening and we'll look to dry out & cool down
overnight.

Another chance of precipitation arrive behind the cold front
Thursday afternoon. Severe threat will be low, but an additional
round of rain is likely. A much cooler & drier airmass will
settle in Friday and stick around for the weekend. The mid level
ridge will shift from the Upper Midwest downstream to the
eastern CONUS. This will place zonal westerly flow over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures will run 5 to 10
degrees below normal (that's high temperatures in near 70) with
lows in the 40s and 50s... a welcome break for the AC units
across MN and W WI. A few additional chances of rain will exist,
primarily on Saturday, but over a much drier pattern will
persist into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR to start for all sites but lower clouds/precip will develop
fairly quickly early in this TAF duration as confidence remains
fairly high that an MCS will traverse MN-WI overnight,
generally in the 06z-10z timeframe from western TAF sites to
eastern TAF sites. Conditions will likely drop to IFR, mainly
due to heavy rain with the thunderstorms associated with the
overnight system. In addition strong/gusty winds with a sharp
directional change is possible as the system moves across any
given terminal. Have kept the TS mention to just the TEMPO so as
to not thrust a 3-4hr solid TS window at any given site.
Conditions will temper down just prior to daybreak, with VFR
conditions likely for much of the day today. Another round of
thunderstorms looks to develop in far eastern MN late this
afternoon then progress eastward across WI this evening. The
Wednesday system looks to be stronger than the one for tonight,
but the Wednesday system looks to more heavily impact the WI
sites, possibly as far west as MSP.

KMSP...First round of storms looks to move across MSP in the
08z-10z timeframe per decent multi-CAM agreement. Ceilings
likely down to MVFR while visibilities drop to IFR-or-lower,
dependent on rainfall intensity. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning are likely to come with the thunderstorms. These
overnight storms are expected to conclude prior to the
Wednesday morning push, resulting in VFR conditions through mid-
Wednesday afternoon. Another round of storms looks to develop
over eastern MN late Wednesday afternoon and slide east. Still
some uncertainty as to whether MSP will be impacted, thus have
maintained the PROB30. Even if the storms do not directly impact
MSP, routes eastward of MSP will be impacted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. -RA likely. Slight chc PM -TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts
becoming W 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1149 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
102200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1149 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected, starting late this
evening in western Minnesota, steadily spreading east into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin through the early morning hours. The
primary severe threat will be damaging winds, with possibly large
hail or a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

High heat and humidity are expected Wednesday with heat indices
into the 90s to around 100 across southern and eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin.

Severe thunderstorms are possible primarily along and east of the
I-35 corridor Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed overnight tonight
and again Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ063-078-WIZ014-015-023>028-100930-
Dunn WI-Washington MN-Pepin WI-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-Polk WI-
Goodhue MN-Barron WI-Chippewa WI-Eau Claire WI-
325 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BARRON...PEPIN...ST. CROIX...SOUTHEASTERN
POLK...CENTRAL GOODHUE...DUNN...WESTERN EAU CLAIRE...SOUTHWESTERN
CHIPPEWA AND PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Stillwater to near Goodhue, or
extending from 14 miles northeast of St. Paul to 10 miles south of
Red Wing, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Zumbrota, Lake Elmo, Afton, Red Wing, Hudson, Bayport, Stillwater,
  River Falls, North Hudson, Ellsworth, Somerset, Hammond, Baldwin,
  New Richmond, Durand, Menomonie, Eau Claire and Altoona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9200 4457 9204 4441 9208 4445 9224
      4445 9243 4437 9243 4437 9255 4431 9255
      4428 9271 4462 9267 4502 9289 4547 9202
      4484 9142 4460 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 251DEG 45KT 4503 9285 4464 9253 4440 9256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
332 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ044-045-052-053-WIZ014-100915-
Kanabec MN-Chisago MN-Isanti MN-Polk WI-Mille Lacs MN-
332 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ISANTI...
KANABEC...NORTHERN MILLE LACS...NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO AND NORTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 332 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 8 miles north of Lastrup to over North
Branch, or extending from 19 miles northeast of Little Falls to 10
miles east of Cambridge, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rum River State Forest, Spring Lake, North Branch, Stanchfield,
  Mora, Brunswick, Onamia, Harris, Vineland, Grasston, Mora Airport,
  Rush City, Knife Lake, Wahkon, Quamba, Isle, Father Hennepin State
  Park, Warman and Snake River State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4608 9381 4624 9381 4625 9343 4615 9343
      4616 9305 4598 9306 4598 9314 4573 9314
      4573 9285 4572 9287 4564 9289 4564 9271
      4551 9294 4544 9299 4591 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 221DEG 45KT 4616 9408 4592 9349 4552 9303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ053-WIZ014-015-100945-
Chisago MN-Barron WI-Polk WI-
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
CHISAGO...NORTHWESTERN BARRON AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 352 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Osceola, or 28 miles southeast of Cambridge,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Chisago City, Lindstrom, Center City, Shafer, Osceola, Dresser,
  Taylors Falls, St. Croix Falls, Centuria, Amery, Balsam Lake,
  Milltown, Luck, Frederic, Clam Falls, Cumberland, Barronett and
  Haugen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4556 9282 4564 9271 4564 9253 4573 9253
      4573 9215 4564 9215 4564 9168 4521 9253
      4521 9269 4526 9275 4527 9275 4528 9276
      4529 9276 4530 9275 4530 9280 4544 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 224DEG 45KT 4536 9272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ060>063-070-101030-
Washington MN-Anoka MN-Dakota MN-Ramsey MN-Hennepin MN-
417 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL IMPACT HENNEPIN...RAMSEY...
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL ANOKA AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 417 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking heavy rain with possible
minor flooding over the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

Locations impacted include...
  Eden Prairie, Bloomington, Minnetonka, Edina, Richfield, St. Louis
  Park, Eagan, Plymouth, Inver Grove Heights, Minneapolis, Maple
  Grove, St. Paul, Fridley, Brooklyn Center, Brooklyn Park,
  Roseville, Maplewood, Woodbury and Oakdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4509 9346 4509 9319 4505 9296 4489 9295
      4483 9306 4481 9325 4481 9331 4482 9341
      4489 9346 4494 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 215DEG 34KT 4501 9333

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
421 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ015-016-025-027-028-101045-
Dunn WI-Rusk WI-Barron WI-Chippewa WI-Eau Claire WI-
421 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BARRON...
NORTHEASTERN DUNN...EAU CLAIRE...CHIPPEWA AND RUSK COUNTIES UNTIL 545
AM CDT...

At 421 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Barron to 6 miles east of Durand,
or extending from 13 miles southwest of Rice Lake to 21 miles south
of Menomonie, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Barron, Cameron, Rice Lake, Chetek, Bloomer, New Auburn, Lake
  Hallie, Chippewa Falls, Altoona, Lake Wissota, Fall Creek, Cadott,
  Cornell, Bruce, Boyd, Augusta, Stanley, Ladysmith and Fairchild.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4521 9177 4547 9202 4564 9168 4564 9068
      4538 9068 4538 9093 4512 9093 4512 9092
      4460 9092 4460 9141 4484 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 268DEG 34KT 4533 9186 4500 9167 4460 9184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
436 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ025>028-101030-
Chippewa WI-Dunn WI-Pepin WI-Eau Claire WI-
436 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PEPIN...
DUNN...WESTERN EAU CLAIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES UNTIL
530 AM CDT...

At 436 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles south of Menomonie, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Arkansaw, Eau Galle, Durand, Weston, Downsville, Menomonie,
  Menomonie Airport, Rock Falls, Cedar Falls, Caryville, Tainter
  Lake, Hoffman Hills Rec Area, Elk Mound, Colfax, Eau Claire, Eau
  Claire Airport, Seymour and Altoona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4487 9214 4517 9173 4484 9142 4460 9141
      4460 9200 4459 9201 4459 9203 4457 9204
      4457 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 236DEG 38KT 4479 9185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG