Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Mobile, AL

492 
WWUS54 KMOB 191905
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
205 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ALC039-053-FLC091-191915-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-260619T1915Z/
Escambia AL-Covington AL-Okaloosa FL-
205 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND NORTHERN
OKALOOSA COUNTIES...

At 205 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Laurel Hill, or 10 miles north of Crestview, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 8641 3090 8679 3100 8679 3100 8686
      3112 8678 3099 8639 3076 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 294DEG 23KT 3091 8654 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
110 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

 - Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding today for much of the local
   area which lessens to Slight Risk on Saturday.

 - There remains a HIGH RISK of rip currents through Saturday for
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for southern portions of the
   area today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The area is still feeling residual impacts from the significant
rainfall yesterday. Currently there are scattered showers and
thunderstorms working their way through the area and this is
projected to continue through much of the day into the evening.

The heat has returned for today and it is very sticky out there with
dewpoints in the upper 70s and even low 80s in spots along the coast
with temperatures approaching 90. We have opted to issue a Heat
Advisory for our southern Mississippi counties, Mobile and southern
Baldwin counties in Alabama, and coastal areas of the western
Florida panhandle. This advisory lasts through this evening for heat
indices up to 108. We will monitor the heat risk for the beginning
of next week as values creep up again towards advisory criteria.

...THROUGH SATURDAY...

There is an east-west oriented front across central Alabama is the
focus for convection late this morning/early afternoon and it will
drop south through the day today and becomes very slow moving/stall
on Saturday before moving back north. This will bring additional
rainfall to some already hard hit areas from yesterday, so the risk
for flooding is still high today given the lingering impacts. Our
risk for excessive rainfall from WPC is a MODERATE for day 1 and the
day 2 risk is SLIGHT for essentially all of the CWA. A marginal risk
from the SPC for severe storms also exists on today for the entire
area. This is mainly for the afternoon and evening hours as the
boundary moves into the area with increased instability and a wind
risk could be realized if convection organizes along the boundary.

The environment looks to be pretty similar today and tomorrow. Our
significant deep layer moisture is beginning to wane. PWATs have
been very high this week in the 2.3-2.5 inch range and are now
beginning to drop. These will steadily drop to below 2 inches by
Saturday and to near normal by Monday. 48 hour LPMMs for interior
counties in south central Alabama show a widespread swath of 2-5
inches. FFG is very low given previous days of rainfall and
antecedent soil conditions being completely saturated. 1 hour FFG is
generally at or below 2 inches and 3 hour FFG is not much better
topping out at 2.5-3 inches in most locations. There are some areas
through our southeast Mississippi counties and into southern Alabama
where the FFG for 1 and 3 hours is only about 1 inch. The exception
is areas along the coast, generally south of I-10, where 1 hour FFG
is ~4 inches. We are still very saturated through ~850mb and warm
mid-level temperatures with a freezing level of 15,000+ feet will
still support efficient warm rain processes today with rainfall
rates up to 2.5-3 inches/hour. Rainfall totals today and tomorrow
are expected to be 1-3 inches with localized areas reaching up to 4-
5 inches where convection trains given the slow moving/stalled
boundary. Given the antecedent conditions and lower FFG, the
Flood Watch continues through early this evening. There may be
enough time to drain and dry out some depending on the convective
coverage of today before tomorrows rainfall.

We currently have multiple rivers in or projected to increase to
moderate flood stage with a majority of rivers in minor flood stage.
Some of our "flashier" locations like Bayou Sara at Saraland, the
Fish River, and Styx River already have or are currently peaking and
forecasted to drop below minor flood stage by tomorrow morning.

...SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...

We look to stay under zonal flow aloft with high pressure building
into the Gulf through this weekend. The broad trough pattern in
place across the eastern half of the CONUS takes on more of a
meridional orientation before moving offshore this weekend. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Sunday, then dry conditions are
anticipated on Monday then slight chance to chance pops return for
Tuesday. We will keep an eye on heat risk for the beginning of next
week, but as of now it looks to stay below criteria. By mid week,
troughing and associated shortwaves return to the eastern CONUS
which could bring some slight heat relief and chances for showers
and storms.

...BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous beach conditions continue today with lingering impacts
from the departing system. All area beaches are flying double red
flags again today. The rip current risk is still a HIGH for all
Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday afternoon, becoming
moderate through Monday. NWPS shows breakers of 5-6 feet through
early evening, especially for our Florida beaches. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect through Friday evening for our Gulf
coastline.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A slow-moving NW-SE oriented line of intense convection across
northeastern portions of the forecast area should spread
southwestward to an extent this afternoon. There is currently low
confidence that this line will reach the TAF sites later this
afternoon, but any storms could lead to severe reductions in
visibility and localized wind gusts over 30 kts. Most of this
activity should taper off by 00-03z. Some redevelopment is possible
overnight, but more likely Saturday morning over the interior. Away
from convection, mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail through
the afternoon. THere is medium confidence in MVFR with areas of IFR
ceilings after 06z and through much of Saturday morning. Generally
southwesterly flow around 5-10 knots will prevail through the period
away from thunderstorms. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Gulf this morning.
Light to occasional moderate mainly southwesterly flow will occur
through early next week shifting to a more westerly component on
Tuesday. Seas around 6 feet this morning will slowly subside to 2
to 3 feet by the end of the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  89  75  89 /  60  70  50  50
Pensacola   78  88  78  89 /  60  70  40  40
Destin      78  87  78  87 /  70  70  30  40
Evergreen   72  86  72  88 /  60  80  40  60
Waynesboro  73  86  73  89 /  60  90  50  60
Camden      71  83  71  86 /  50  80  30  70
Crestview   74  88  73  89 /  70  80  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261-263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ALZ056-059-060-FLZ203-205-191830-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-Escambia AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN
CONECUH...COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1248 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles west of Red Level to 4 miles southwest
of Elba. Movement was south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, Florala, River Falls, Red Level, Laurel Hill,
Lockhart, Heath, and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3092 8639 3093 8695 3145 8674
      3144 8619 3099 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 011DEG 19KT 3140 8668 3139 8614

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
121 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ALZ055>057-059-060-FLZ203-205-191915-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Escambia AL-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
121 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...CENTRAL
MONROE...ESCAMBIA...CONECUH...COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Vredenburgh to 12 miles
southwest of Geneva. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Andalusia, Monroeville, Brewton, Evergreen, Florala,
Frisco City, Baker, Peterman, East Brewton, McKenzie, River Falls,
Castleberry, Excel, Red Level, Laurel Hill, Lockhart, Repton, Heath,
and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8632 3099 8639 3066 8639 3100 8718
      3100 8716 3107 8738 3179 8751 3143 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 345DEG 27KT 3170 8742 3092 8603

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH