Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Mobile, AL

552 
WWUS54 KMOB 190115
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
815 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALC053-FLC033-113-190130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-260619T0130Z/
Escambia AL-Santa Rosa FL-Escambia FL-
815 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES...

At 815 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Century to 7 miles south of Jay to 4 miles southeast
of Molino, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Century, Flomaton, Molino, Jay, Pollard, Riverview, and Point Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8740 3085 8733 3098 8734 3106 8717
      3108 8707 3089 8694 3068 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 261DEG 37KT 3097 8727 3086 8719 3070 8725 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - A Particularly Dangerous and Life Threatening Flash Flood
   Situation exists across the area today with a High Risk for
   Flooding across portions of southeast Mississippi, southern
   Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle. Considerable
   Flash Flooding is likely and Catastrophic Flash Flooding is
   possible today.

 - Numerous marine hazards exist across the area. There remains a
   HIGH RISK of rip currents through Saturday for Alabama and
   northwest Florida beaches. Minor coastal flooding is occurring
   around Mobile Bay today. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect
   today through Friday. Strong winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft from through this evening.

 - There is a Slight Risk for Severe Storms today with a risk of a
   few tornadoes across much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...

The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur is currently creating
hazardous impacts to the local area. This system is slowly moving
through the area today creating a life-threatening flooding event. A
Flood Watch is in effect through Friday afternoon for precipitation
totals of 6-12 inches of rainfall and localized areas up to 15
inches from this event. WPC has the southern half of our CWA in a
HIGH risk for excessive rainfall which is rare and not to be taken
lightly. The rest of the area is in a MODERATE risk for excessive
rainfall. A trailing cold front will move into the northern portion
of the forecast area on Friday which shifts near the coast on
Saturday. This will bring additional rainfall to already hard hit
areas from today.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...

The rainy pattern continues with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
forecasted through the end of the week into the weekend with our
main impacts today into Friday with the remnants of Post Tropical
Storm Arthur. After most of the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur
departs, we are left with lingering tropical moisture and a cold
front draped across the area leading to more precipitation Friday
and into the weekend. We are under risks for excessive rainfall from
the WPC for the next 3 days. Today, the area is split with a HIGH
risk in the southern half and a MODERATE risk for the northern half.
Our day 2 risk is a MODERATE and day 3 risk is SLIGHT for
essentially all of the CWA.

There is significant deep layer moisture with the entire atmospheric
column close to fully saturated based on 12Z RAOBs in the Southeast.
Our PWATs have been very high in the 2.3-2.5 inch range and will
continue to be at and above the daily max for climatology through
most of Friday. Ensembles show this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch
PWATs persisting through Saturday evening. The warm mid-level
temperatures with a freezing level of 14,000+ feet will support
efficient warm rain processes. This environment supports rainfall
with rates topping out at 2-3 inches/hour. This along with the an
enhanced LLJ of 40+ knots oriented correctly will support training
precipitation through today. CAMs indicate an east-west oriented
backbuilding line of storms trailing the MCS will move due east
creating a corridor of enhanced precipitation totals where this sets
up. As of now this looks to set up along or just north of the I-10
corridor.

The heaviest precipitation has began in our area early this morning
in our Mississippi counties and spread east into southern Alabama.
For what its worth, multiple deterministic CAMs show swaths of 10-16
inches across the southern portion of the area. HREF and REFS LPMMs
for 6 hours shows 4-7 inch swaths for this afternoon through
midnight, and 24 hour LPMMs through Thursday night of 7-14+ inches
through parts of our Mississippi counties and into southern Alabama.
While these tend to be somewhat overdone, it indicates the
increasing potential for flash flooding issues. Our FFG is still
quite low given previous days of rainfall and antecedent soil
conditions being very saturated. 1 hour FFG is around 2.25-2.75
inches and 3 hour FFG is not much better at 2.75-3.5 inches for most
locations. Given the rainfall rates and training convection flooding
will commence within just a couple hours of moderate precipitation.

Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches with localized areas exceeding 15
inches for the event. Even with most of the rain falling on
Thursday, the risk for flooding is still high on Friday after the
very heavy rainfall from today. We currently have a lot rivers in or
projected to go into minor flood with a few projected to go into
moderate/major flood stage in the coming days.

...SEVERE THREAT...

MLCAPE values increase as high as 2500-3000 J/kg over the area
today. Shear values have trended higher as the remnants of Arthur
approach and move into the area. CAMs indicate that the current line
of convection will move east-northeast with backbuilding taking on
more of a east-west oriented line of storms. SPC has a slight risk
for most of the area today. A marginal risk of severe storms also
exists on Friday for the entire area, mainly for the afternoon and
evening hours as the weak front drops into the area with a wind risk
if convection organizes along the boundary.

...COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding becomes a concern today where high tide
combines with persistent increasing onshore flow. P-ETSS guidance at
Mobile State Docks shows a peak of 2.0 feet MHHW this afternoon. We
already have some observations from ALDOT cameras showing splashover
on the Mobile Causeway near I-10. Values elsewhere approach, but
stay below the 2.0 feet MHHW threshold so some minor inundation
could occur for typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort
Pickens. We opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
southern/central Mobile County and Baldwin County for that began
late this morning and lasts through the evening.

...SATURDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK...

The broad trough pattern in place across the eastern half of the
CONUS takes on more of a meridional orientation before moving
offshore this weekend. High rain chances continue through Saturday
as the boundary lingers over the area. The frontal boundary becomes
diffuse or will lift north Saturday night as southerly flow is
established over the area. Slight chance to chance pops follow for
Sunday, then dry conditions are anticipated on Monday then slight
chance to chance pops return for Tuesday. We will keep an eye on
potential a heat risk for the beginning of next week, but as of now
it looks to stay below criteria.

...BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous and life-threatening beach conditions continue with all
area beaches flying double red flags today. The rip current risk
is now a HIGH for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday
afternoon. NWPS shows breakers of 5-8 feet and a High Surf
Advisory was issued through Friday evening for the entire Gulf
coastline in our area.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Forecasters are watching a secondary line of deep convection
dropping southeast at 15 to 20 kts out of southeast MS and will
impact MOB/BFM terminals between 19.00/19.02Z with strong gusty
winds, cigs dropping to IFR categories and vsbys to lower to
LIFR/VLIFR briefly in +RA. Will monitor trends before including in
near term forecast further east at JKA/PNS. May be a lull in
activity late in the night before tsra chances return Fri. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow will persist
through tonight with seas ramping up to 7 to 9 feet today. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area until 6
am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to
moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light
southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  90  75  89 /  80  70  70  70
Pensacola   80  91  78  89 /  60  60  70  70
Destin      80  89  78  87 /  50  70  50  60
Evergreen   73  87  72  87 / 100  90  80  90
Waynesboro  74  88  73  88 /  70  80  80  90
Camden      72  84  71  84 /  90  80  70  90
Crestview   76  89  74  89 /  80  80  70  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Tillmans Corner     30.58N 88.17W
06/18/2026                   Mobile             AL   Dept of Highways

            ALDOT reports roadway flooded at I-65 SB @
            MP 0.2 ramp to Exit 0/I-10 in Mobile.

&&

SS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
614 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Flash Flood      I10 And I65             30.63N 88.12W
06/18/2026                   Mobile             AL   Dept of Highways

            ALDOT reports roadway flooded at I-65 SB @
            MP 0.2 ramp to Exit 0/I-10 in Mobile.

&&

SS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
617 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Flash Flood      I65 And Airport Blvd    30.67N 88.13W
06/18/2026                   Mobile             AL   Dept of Highways

            ALDOT reports flooding at I-65 NB/SB @ MP
            3.27 at Exit 3/Airport Blvd. in Mobile.

&&

SS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
617 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ261-263-MSZ076-079-190000-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Greene MS-George MS-
617 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MOBILE...NORTHEASTERN
GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 617 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Gulfcrest to 6 miles northwest
of Wilmer to 5 miles southeast of Lucedale. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saraland, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Lucedale, Creola, Chunchula, Gulfcrest,
Axis, Semmes, I65 And I165, Wilmer, I65 And AL 158, and Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 8878 3096 8866 3108 8856 3107 8794
      3104 8795 3103 8796 3102 8795 3089 8797
      3088 8798 3088 8797 3087 8798 3086 8798
      3078 8799 3070 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 283DEG 29KT 3100 8841 3089 8845 3085 8855

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ055-056-059-190000-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 700
PM CDT...

At 627 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of I65 And AL 113, or 10 miles southeast of Frisco City,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, Castleberry, Excel, Repton, I65 And US 84, and I65 And AL
113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8744 3127 8747 3136 8743 3144 8734
      3158 8696 3151 8694 3122 8690 3117 8713
      3115 8741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 263DEG 38KT 3130 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ264-266-FLZ201-202-190145-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-
755 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BALDWIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 755 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Gonzalez to Summerdale to near
Point Clear. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Fairhope, Gonzalez, Gulf Shores, Foley, Orange Beach, Goulding,
Robertsdale, Point Clear, Lillian, Myrtle Grove, Magnolia Springs,
Bon Secour, Summerdale, and Silverhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8777 3055 8804 3060 8780 3071 8747
      3049 8711 3030 8730 3022 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 285DEG 43KT 3057 8746 3048 8773 3047 8796

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD